I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2068 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:48 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Warning: I probably don’t know what I am talking about.
Quote:
How did they manage to cut their oil consumption, grow their economies, grow their populations, and avoid a Mad Max Crash?
The European economies invested in other growing countries and/or outsourced to other growing countries. Therefore, they can continue to survive (until the growth stops/reverses due to depleting energy). _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 386 Location: Holland, Belgica Foederata (Republic of the Seven United Netherlands)
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:48 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
jato wrote:
Quote:
How did they manage to cut their oil consumption, grow their economies, grow their populations, and avoid a Mad Max Crash?
The European economies invested in other growing countries and/or outsourced to other growing countries. Therefore, they can continue to survive (until the growth stops/reverses due to depleting energy).
I think you are right, but this is only one aspect. European governments have also been willing to take unpopular measures to reduce oil consumption such as taxes on cars, diesel and gasoline.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:12 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Quote:
The European economies invested in other growing countries and/or outsourced to other growing countries. Therefore, they can continue to survive (until the growth stops/reverses due to depleting energy)
Is this true though?
Manafacturing is probably a lot smaller % of Europes GDP than it was in 1965 , but I think actually manafacturing output is still a lot higher in physical product or cost terms? _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
Last edited by Permanently_Baffled on Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:12 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:12 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Gerben wrote:
jato wrote:
Quote:
How did they manage to cut their oil consumption, grow their economies, grow their populations, and avoid a Mad Max Crash?
The European economies invested in other growing countries and/or outsourced to other growing countries. Therefore, they can continue to survive (until the growth stops/reverses due to depleting energy).
I think you are right, but this is only one aspect. European governments have also been willing to take unpopular measures to reduce oil consumption such as taxes on cars, diesel and gasoline.
...and Oil for heating and electricity generation has gone down and instead we have used NG, Coal and Nuclear. I believe you have to see at least NG on the same charts to understand what has happened. The use of fosil fuels have increased since the 70-ties, but Oil is nowadays more or less "only" for transportation.
The problem for us Europeans is that Oil, NG and Coal resourses within the community are heavily depleted and becoming more so every day. The EU is in a much more unsafe situation than the US since we do not have the vast amount of Coal (and shale) that the states have _________________ Me Tar sands, you Jane
Joined: Feb 16, 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Coventry, England
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:25 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
I've not the faintest idea about any country other than Britain but, according to the Office of National Statistics, manufacturing output has been flat since 1999. Also average fuel efficiency has - I'm reliably informed by Google - improved from 35mpg in 1997 to 40mpg in 2005.
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:52 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
I suspect the UK story is very typical of the overall situation. Reductions in oil consumption have been due to replacement with gas in power generation and space heating, as others have pointed out. Fuel consumption in transport has not increased or decreased much.
As regards the average fuel consumption of British cars, this has actually not changed in the last ten years, according to the study by the DFT found here:
Please refer to Table 3.4. The average fuel economy has remained at 31mpg since the early 1990s. Engine improvements have been absorbed by the approx doubling in weight of saloon cars over the last 20 years. Amazingly, a typical saloon like a VW Passat or Phaeton weighs as much as a Cadillac "gas guzzler" of the 1960s.
The true cost of driving has actually never been lower than it is today. Fuel has traditionally been heavily taxed in Europe because it traditionally was an import, and in most countries it still is. During the years when Britain was an oil exporter, fuel tax remained high. No government was going to give away taxes unless they absolutely had to, and they did not have to. The Tories under Major pushed up the tax on fuel in the early 1990s, to combat the traffic congestion that was a direct consequence of the buffoon Thatcher's totally incompetent land planning and transportation policies.
It will take an awful lot to get the fatted masses out of their cars. Take a bike ride through London and cruise past line after line of suckers stuck in dead traffic sweating away in their sports cars. Very satisfying and very mystifying. What is wrong with these stupid people?
Incidentally, you ask about avoiding the Mad Max scenario. We've done that so far, but let us not forget that the early 1980s was a miserable time in Britain, with 3.5 million unemployed and many northern industrial towns reduced to skeleton communities. This was expressed in constant confrontations by the unions. However, the mood was that you could move ahead and do well if you were savvy, and that the unions were diehards.
Likewise, let us not forget that the fuel protesters of 2000 did cause serious disruption.
In both these cases there were plenty in the country who were doing well. If we consider a very different scenario, in which the financial sector is dying of debt and individuals are passing into bankruptcy, again due to debt, then that would be really quite different. You could see troops on the streets.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4683 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:14 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
So you say that alternatives to oil began to replace it as the dominant energy source?
And that energy efficiency, conservation, technological breakthroughs, changes in living arrangements, tax/subsidy policies, and a change in the attitude of society lead to lowered oil consumption?
Could it be possible that these changes could occur outside of the EU? _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:19 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
"Europeans love the nanny government. They always have."
True! And always will probably
"After the American Revolution, Europeans were momentarily electrified enough to throw off the shackles of Monarchy."
We still have a king and we love him!!
"So this is why the tax rate in Sweden is 60%+ - independence is a frightening thing for most people"
Exactly!
"And while countries like Sweden and Norway can live well today, with cheap oil and cheap foreign labor to make their crap, this will change. When the cheap oil bonanza is over, we'll see how well Sweden's socialist mirage does."
Think you are wrong here. We still have a large manufacturing base and a lot of hydropower, forrets etc. We'll manage as long as we get a good nannying...
"Oh yes, and returning to the ridiculous brag that "European governments have taken unpopular steps . . . "
The thing is that we could not afford to much oil import, Sweden has never had Oil of its own. Oil is generally heavily taxed in all countries that do not have any of it. None taxed oil was even more unpopular, that is the answer
"France, Sweden, and all the rest of the European socialist states do exactly what the majority of their citizens want them to do --- tax, pile, and distribute."
Very true!
"Is it that they are too stupid or too subdued?"
I believe we just want the Gouvernment to solve issues for us or at least pretend to solve them... i.e. I go for "stupid" _________________ Me Tar sands, you Jane
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:25 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Tyler_JC wrote:
So you say that alternatives to oil began to replace it as the dominant energy source?
And that energy efficiency, conservation, technological breakthroughs, changes in living arrangements, tax/subsidy policies, and a change in the attitude of society lead to lowered oil consumption?
Could it be possible that these changes could occur outside of the EU?
We switched from Oil for other fosill fuels (mainly NG) were that was possible, is that so hard to understand?
And yes, the avarage European car is much smaller and less fuel consuming than the awarage US car. What is so strange with that? _________________ Me Tar sands, you Jane
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4683 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:31 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Olle wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
So you say that alternatives to oil began to replace it as the dominant energy source?
And that energy efficiency, conservation, technological breakthroughs, changes in living arrangements, tax/subsidy policies, and a change in the attitude of society lead to lowered oil consumption?
Could it be possible that these changes could occur outside of the EU?
We switched from Oil for other fosill fuels (mainly NG) were that was possible, is that so hard to understand?
And yes, the avarage European car is much smaller and less fuel consuming than the awarage US car. What is so strange with that?
The strange thing is that the overwhelming majority of "Peak Oilers" believe that these changes are impossible to repeat outside of the EU. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:42 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Tyler_JC wrote:
The strange thing is that the overwhelming majority of "Peak Oilers" believe that these changes are impossible to repeat outside of the EU.
Aha! I agree, some seem to hope for dooooooooom, and every fact that says doom is not around the corner are swiftly dismissed... _________________ Me Tar sands, you Jane
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:46 am Post subject: Re: European Oil Consumption over time.
Tyler_JC wrote:
So you say that alternatives to oil began to replace it as the dominant energy source?
And that energy efficiency, conservation, technological breakthroughs, changes in living arrangements, tax/subsidy policies, and a change in the attitude of society lead to lowered oil consumption?
Could it be possible that these changes could occur outside of the EU?
No, that is not quite what we are saying. Oil has been replaced in space heating and power generation because a cheaper alternative fortuitously became available about the time of the second oil crisis in the late 1970s, that is, nat gas from the North Sea and the Yamal Peninsula became available in large quantities throughout Europe. That is a one-off windfall that cannot happen again. Nat gas is now becoming expensive, so it is in turn being replaced by coal and nuclear in power gen. There is really no alternative to gas for domestic heating and cooking or commercial space heating, so these sectors are just paying up. Power generation is the big shock absorber that has allowed Europe so far to escape the worst aspects of the energy crises that have come her way. Coal is still pretty cheap.
There has been no particular innovation in transport. As I pointed out, modern cars are heavier than the US gas guzzlers of the 1960s. Personal car use of a trivial nature continues as ever, despite all the problems it causes. In the UK, public transport has been screwed up by botched privatisations and by incompetent land planning. Cycle use is stagnant or falling in all European countries.
The high petrol/diesel taxes in Europe have prevented the recurrance of gas guzzlers as seen in the US. The US traditionally was the world's oil provider and thus domestic use was liberal and dirt cheap - there was no reason to tax it and arguably it would have hindered growth to do so. Now it is not the world's oil provider, but old habits die hard. I am quite surprised that it has not been politically possible to tax "gas" in the US to reduce imports.
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