Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)

MonteQuest · Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

I have included this report from CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates).

Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources

[edit: link no longer valid. They want $499.00 for this report at CERA. Anyone have a valid link? Pm me with it.}
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MonteQuest

This report has been seriously debunked and refuted here:

Does the peak oil "myth" just fall down? - our response to CERA

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/15/83857/186

And here:

Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part One - "There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously"

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2409

And here:

CERA says Peak Oil theory flawed; Congressmen point out CERA flaws

"A major flaw in the CERA report is its reliance upon questionable assessments of global reserves by the USGS. USGS
estimates of future world reserves equate a 50 percent probability with a 50th percentile or mean. That is a bizarre and
totally inaccurate use of statistics. It almost doubles the amount of projected reserves compared to the 95 percent
probable estimate. Actual discoveries are tracking the 95 percent probable trend. That means world oil production will
peak much sooner than CERA projects in this report"

Link
_________________
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.

joewp

Poordogabone · Tar Sands Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 44

Hi, the problem for p.o to become mainstream is that it comes down to math. with global warming, people see the ice melting from pictures and then believe what they see and all the data in the world was irelevant for public opinion to influence politicians until satellite proof.
Both side of the po question sticks to their gun throwing numbers at each other wich the public at large dont understand.
I have been reading about po ever since I got the internet in the 90's
and get a "feel" for such topics as depletion models, expansional rates
etc and I admire those who puts all this stuff together and I really believe in it, but because of the abstract of the math the subject won't appear in mainstream.
Anyway I would like to ask CERA if there model is 100% and undenially foolproof because if there is only a 10% incertaintude (ultra conservative scenario) and we go bisness as usual then we are playing russian roulette are'nt we?

auscanman

Yes, the public's ability to understand anything based upon maths is minimal. If shocking the public into believing peak oil is the goal, we should show scenes of abandoned oil fields and contrast this with scenes from these same fields back in their heyday. This was done very effectively in Oil Crash Movie- A Crude Awakening. They showed scenes from Baku, Azerbaijan that revealed abandoned, rusting oil infrastructure.

I find cheap attempts at propaganda unconvincing, preferring solid analysis based on numbers, but if scenes of abandoned oil fields are what it takes to rouse the public, so be it.

Poordogabone · Tar Sands Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 44

Oops, gave away my french origin, "uncertainty" was what I meant.

NWMossBack

I think in the case of PO, there really is no picture or chart that will grab the public's imagination in the same way melting glaciers do. As long as Mr. Everyman can still gas up the SUV, boat or RV for a weekend of conspicuous consumption, then there is no crisis. As soon as he cannot do that, or must wait in a 30 min. gas line, then we will have the proverbial "teachable moment." That will likely be well after the actual peak, and too late to do much about it.

Just like the media latching onto the "as late as 2040" timeframe in the GAO report and ignoring the "as early as now", any positive spin in the CERA report will carry far more weight with the public and the media than any contradictory negative report or critique of the CERA report, even by congress.

malcomatic_51 · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 24, 2005 Posts: 183 Location: UK

I would add that few people will grasp the concept inherent in Peak Oil. Most people hear that we have 40 years' oil left (or whathever it is) and recall that they have been hearing that for decades. Thus they assume that the oil companies can just find more when the price goes up. This is a deeply entrenched belief system (I held it myself until I came across the Hubbert analysis by accident).

Now, I have a background in engineering. This means I am trained to carry out factual analysis and have experience with counter-intuition. Most people do not have that. An engineer or physicist will quickly grasp that infinite growth in a finite system will lead to a peak at the half-way point. Yer average Joe will not find that so easy to grasp, at least, not unless it is being pouring into their heads by saturation media coverage.

Will TPTB ever admit peak oil after we defintively have passed it? I don't think they will. It would risk too many questions, and put them on the defensive as to "why didn't you tell us?". The fatted masses will be distressed and confused and they will blame and they will reach for the promises of the sly fox.

TommyJefferson

MonteQuest

Tyler_JC

We should start a collection for a copy of the report.

Or are we not allowed to do that?
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."

Bas

DantesPeak

Jim Sinclair, best known for his comments about gold and attempts to manipulate the gold industry, bought one of those recent CERA reports for $1,000. He was very disappointed at the lack of scientific analysis of the situation, and his comments made it seem that a public summary of the report gave just about as much insight as the complete version.

So my opinion is don't buy this report if a summary can be had.
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.

Tyler_JC

halcyon · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 159

For those of us not having access to CERA/IHS reports, I recommend reading some rebuttals to Peter M. Jackson's argument:

Luis de Sousa:
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2283

Phil Hart & Chris Skrebowski:
Peak Oil - A Detailed and Transparent Analysis
http://www.philhart.com/CERA_SPE_debate

Discussion about CERA and Peak Oil in SPE (incl. comments from Hart, Skrebowski, Peter Jackson):
http://www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/jpt/2007/06/DissReply.htm