I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:48 am Post subject: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
This may significantly disrupt refineries within a few days:
Quote:
Houston Ship Channel Closed Because of Fog, Halting Tankers
By Jim Kennett
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The Houston Ship Channel, the main waterway linking the Gulf of Mexico to oil refineries in the world's energy capital, was closed to traffic because of heavy fog, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
Pilots guiding ships along the 54-mile (87-kilometer) channel ceased operations around 1 a.m. local time yesterday, Petty Officer Mario Romero said in a telephone interview.
``Barges are still free to come and go as they please, but the big ships are not coming in or out,'' Romero said.
There were 45 ships waiting to enter the channel and 32 waiting to leave it, Romero said. He said he didn't know how many of the ships were oil tankers.
Houston has the largest U.S. oil port and second-largest port of any kind by tonnage. More than 420 petrochemical plants and two of the nation's four biggest oil refineries are in the Houston area, according to the Greater Houston Partnership.
ALI VELSHI: Good morning Soledad. So we've got oil nearing $63 a barrel because of some problems in Nigeria, because OPEC is talking about cutting production. But we have a home-grown problem, a whole lot of crude oil that should be getting to refineries in Houston is stuck in the gulf of Mexico, in the Houston shipping channel. It's a 53-mile channel which starts at Texas City, Texas and goes into Houston. It's a two-way channel, ships come in, drop off the crude oil, take other stuff out. It is closed. Only about two ships got through it yesterday and then overnight the people who run the shipping channel closed it because there's too much fog there. Obviously, this is not a live shot because right now there's fog. It's closed the place down. There are about 45 ships lined up at Texas City waiting to get in. About 32 ships waiting to get out. The authorities there say that they might be able to open it one way some time later today. But the fog, the sea fog that's there, could be holding it back for three or four days. That's a bit of a problem because that's not about oil supply in the world, that's about oil that has to get to American refineries which have to move at full throttle in order to get oil supplies and gasoline to Americans. So that's something worth watching. We have several reasons why we might see oil prices higher today. Miles?
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Ok I faintly remember this was a scenario for "Oil Storm" US supplies were already constrained from mid-east conflict and russia and china were outbidding us. What oil we had could not be processed due to Fog in the houston channel and one of the ships running into a refinery thus crippling the whole refinery strip.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
The backlog of ships may be growing and the Calcasieu Channel, which connects the Lake Charles, Louisiana, to the Gulf of Mexico was also shut.
Quote:
Foggy Gulf Coast ship delays threaten US fuel output
Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:51am ET
NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A prolonged delay in crude oil shipments along waterways in Texas and Louisiana due to fog could force some Gulf Coast refineries to slow down fuel production, experts said Friday.
As many as 77 ships were waiting for a blanket of mist to clear on the Houston Ship Channel, the second day fog made navigation unsafe along the 53-mile (85.3-kilometer) waterway to the busiest U.S. petrochemical port.
Current forecasts predict the thick sea fog will persist for five more days, according to the Coast Guard and Houston ship pilots association.
"It is a possibility that refiners along the waterway will have to cut production if this is prolonged for five days," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Research. "I would suspect at that point, however, that they would ask the government for a loan from the emergency stockpile."
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
ThunderSnow wrote:
Ok I faintly remember this was a scenario for "Oil Storm" US supplies were already constrained from mid-east conflict and russia and china were outbidding us. What oil we had could not be processed due to Fog in the houston channel and one of the ships running into a refinery thus crippling the whole refinery strip.
Some analysts state that a hurricane coming up the Houston Ship Channel, or some other similar catastrophe, would be worse than the damage incurred by Hurricane Katrina to the energy industry.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2580 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
The ships may be capable of navigating the channel, but the Coast Guard might think otherwise. In these instances you have to do a lot "what if's" in your decision making process.
Kind of like driving airplanes around. We are loaded with capability, but the FAA decides what level of that capability we can use and when.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Sabine River Channel also closed.
Only 3 ships made it through the Houston Channel during mid-day, then the fog returned.
The Department of Energy downplays suggestions that the SPR
will be tapped soon.
Quote:
Gulf Coast fog delays ships, threatens U.S. fuel
Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:31pm ET
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Prolonged fog delays in crude oil shipments along waterways in Texas and Louisiana could force some Gulf Coast refineries to slow down fuel production, experts said on Friday.
Three tankers were allowed to pass into Houston at midday Friday, but current forecasts predict the thick sea fog will persist for several more days, according to the Coast Guard and ship pilots.
"I don't see a front coming till Wednesday," a dispatcher for the Sabine Pilots Association said. At this time of year, it often takes a weather front to clear out fog.
"It is a possibility that refiners along the waterway will have to cut production if this is prolonged for five days," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Research. "I would suspect at that point, however, that they would ask the government for a loan from the emergency stockpile."
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Quote:
Fog lifts, lets oil ships into some US Gulf ports
Sat Dec 16, 2006 6:48pm ET
HOUSTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - A siege of fog that has halted shipping at several ports along the U.S. Gulf Coast broke on Saturday, allowing some ships carrying crude oil and refined products to move, ship pilots said.
"We had approximately 10 inbound, and we sailed about 16 outbound," a Houston ship pilots dispatcher said, noting not all of the ships were tankers.
"We still have a backlog of 35 to 40."
Fog, common this time of year, has been a problem along the central and western Gulf Coast since Wednesday, halting shipping for extended periods. Intermittent fog was forecast at least through Monday.
Some ship movement was also reported at Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Beaumont, Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, Texas, all refining centers, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
But fog was said to be rolling back into the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas Saturday afternoon, threatening to extend delays.
Coastal insurance rates surging — if any can be obtained
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Joel Garreau
THE WASHINGTON POST
"Our view is that there are some events that have the potential to be so large as to exceed the capabilities of the insurance industry, as well as the funding and financing capability of individual states," said Michael Trevino, a spokesman for Allstate, one of the nation’s largest home-insurance companies. "Those are events that have the potential to be $100 billion. These events are so enormous, no entity has the ability to manage it."
Some require little imagination, such as a Category 4 hitting Miami or a Category 4 coming up the Houston Ship Channel aimed at the center of the U.S. oil industry and America’s fourth-largest city.
But the one Allstate is focused on is a Category 3 funneling north up New York Harbor and pushing a wall of water perhaps 15 feet tall up Broadway toward the second-story windows of Wall Street.
This is why Allstate has decided not to write new homeowners insurance in the five boroughs of New York plus Westchester County and Long Island. In the most vulnerable parts of that market, they are not renewing existing insurance.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Quote:
Oil eases, above $63 after US weather delays, OPEC
Monday, December 18, 2006 2:19:10 AM
By Neil Chatterjee
SINGAPORE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Oil edged lower towards $63 on Monday, pulling back from last week's gains as a dense fog delaying U.S. crude shipments is expected to ease this week, though support came from OPEC's plan to further cut output.
U.S. crude <CLc1> fell 29 cents to $63.14 a barrel by 0309 GMT, after rising 92 cents on Friday to the highest settlement in two weeks. London Brent slipped 18 cents to $63.31 a barrel.
Forecasts show a fog delaying tankers carrying crude to refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast could lift early this week, though vessel traffic on the Houston Ship Channel was halted again on Sunday night due to the fog.
Four days of intermittent delays on the waterway, which feeds the nation's busiest petrochemicals port, has led some refiners in the area to warn they may need to slow fuel production, but so far no Gulf Coast refinery has announced production cuts.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:44 am Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
There are no reports of refinery closures in Texas yet reported, but fog continued in the morning - with expectations of some clearing in mid-day:
Quote:
Meanwhile, "dense fog delayed crude shipments to refineries along the Gulf [of Mexico] as fog plagued the Houston Ship Channel," he said, adding that if delays continue this week, refinery production will likely be slowed.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Fog starts affecting refinery operations. The Houston Ship Channel provides tanker access to five refineries that have a combined distillation capacity of 1.34 million b/d.:
Quote:
The Associated Press
Published: December 18, 2006
A fifth day of heavy fog in Texas and Louisiana coastal regions, while interfering with oil vessel traffic on key waterways, has so far affected operations at only one of a number of oil refineries there.
The 340,000 barrels-a-day Deer Park refinery on the Houston Skip Channel has cut crude throughput slightly, a spokeswoman said, saying the fog is having a "minimal impact on rates."
Large vessel traffic was halted Monday in the Houston Ship Channel, the Sabine Neches Waterway and the Calcasieu Ship Channel, according to pilot associations in Houston and Port Arthur, Texas, and in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Fog conditions are seen persisting until Thursday with few breaks, a meteorologist said Monday.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1648 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Quote:
The 340,000 barrels-a-day Deer Park refinery on the Houston Skip Channel
How does stuff like this get past all those high-priced editors at the AP? _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Quote:
Update: Fog Continues To Halt Shipping at Critical Gulf Coast Ports December 19
Since Thursday of last week, operations at several critical Gulf Coast ports have been affected by thick fog, delaying inbound and outbound petroleum deliveries. The U.S. Department of Energy has been monitoring the situation in the event that a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is needed. The media has reported on operations at the following Gulf Coast ports:
Houston, Texas: Reuters reported Tuesday morning that dense fog had again closed the Houston Ship Channel after the channel reopened overnight. Vessel traffic along the critical waterway has been intermittent for 6 consecutive days. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, about 60 vessels are currently waiting to enter the
channel. Houston is the biggest petroleum port in the United States and the Houston Ship Channel allows tankers to access five refineries with a combined processing capacity of 1.34 million b/d. On Monday, Gulf Coast sources told OPIS that some Houston refiners had trimmed runs in the face of delays in the delivery of
crude oil. According to a Shell Oil spokesman, the delayed shipments were causing “minimal impact” at the company’s 333,700 b/d joint venture refinery in Deer Park, Texas. A Valero spokesman said that the delays were not affecting production at its 83,000 b/d refinery in Houston and the company expects operations to “remain fine” so long as there are temporary breaks in the fog, which there have been thus far. No other Houston refiners have reported on operations.
Texas City, Texas:According to the Coast Guard, the Texas City Ship Channel, which is nearby to the Houston Ship Channel, was shut down at 7:05 a.m. Tuesday because of fog and one inbound ship and 11 outbound vessels remain stopped. There are three refineries in Texas City with a combined processing capacity
of about 700,000 b/d.
Port Arthur, Texas: On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Sabine River Pilots Association, which operates the Sabine Channel into Port Arthur, Texas, said that the channel had reopened and that a backlog of 16 vessels waiting to enter the port was being reduced. The Sabine Channel allows tankers to access four refineries with a
combined processing capacity of 1.12 million b/d.
Lake Charles, Louisiana: On Monday, the U.S. Coast Guard said that the Calcasieu Ship Channel into Lake Charles had been opened since midmorning on Sunday and pilots were clearing the backlog of ships waiting to enter the port. The Calcasieu pilots association said it expected the waterway to shut again overnight but expected normal operations by Tuesday. The Calcasieu Ship Channel allows tankers to access three refineries with a combined processing capacity of about 600,000 b/d.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Quote:
Vessel backlog at Houston Ship Channel shrinks
Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:43pm ET
NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters) - The number of ships waiting to get into the Houston Ship Channel has dropped to 35 from around 50 this morning, as clear weather allowed the waterway to open, the Houston Pilots Association said.
"We've been open since 7:45 am (1345 GMT) and we've nearly cut the inbound backlog in half," a pilots official said. He added that outbound traffic was still shut.
Vessel traffic on the waterway feeding the nation's busiest oil and petrochemicals port has been interrupted every day for nearly a week by intermittent fog.
Joined: Jan 06, 2006 Posts: 508 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
How long is this forecast to last? The crude inventory numbers were out today, and show a very large draw down in crude (with refined products up slightly)... _________________ We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: Fog Closes Houston Ship Channel
Cobra_Strike wrote:
How long is this forecast to last? The crude inventory numbers were out today, and show a very large draw down in crude (with refined products up slightly)...
I think the fog probably at the most accounted for no more than about 2 million of last week's drop of 6 million barrels of crude (of course that is just my estimate) – for the week ending last Friday, December 15 (based on normal imports up to about 1.25 mbpd0.
There seems to be some optimism that the backlog will be reduced by Friday, the date of the next report.
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