Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed May 31, 2006 3:39 am Post subject: Global Warming News links
Climate Change Responsible For Increased Hurricanes, Researchers Find
Quote:
Human induced climate change, rather than naturally occurring ocean cycles, may be responsible for the recent increases in frequency and strength of North Atlantic hurricanes, according to Penn State and Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers.
“Anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity,” the researchers report in an upcoming issue of the American Geophysical Society’s EOS.
Michael E. Mann, associate professor of meteorology and geosciences, Penn State, and Kerry A. Emanuel, professor of atmospheric sciences, MIT, looked at the record of global sea surface temperatures, hurricane frequency, aerosol impacts and the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – an ocean cycle similar, but weaker and less frequent than the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Although others have suggested that the AMO, a cycle of from 50 to 70 years, is the significant contributing factor to the increase in number and strength of hurricanes, their statistical analysis and modeling indicate that it is only the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature that is responsible, tempered by the cooling effects of some lower atmospheric pollutants.
sciencedaily _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2006 2:42 am Post subject: Global Warming News links
Canadians expect failure on climate change
Quote:
Nearly two-thirds of Canadians believe the Conservative government will fail to take adequate steps to fight global warming, and blame the oil and gas industry for making matters worse.
And a similar number -- 63 per cent -- are "desperately concerned" that the "world may not last much longer than another couple of generations" if drastic action isn't taken immediately.
The poll also found:
- Almost 71 per cent of Canadians believe major companies with huge profits should be forced to pay more to clean up the environment, as opposed to taxpayers, even if it means driving them out of business.
- 66 per cent of Canadians believe the scientists who blame human activity, versus 34 per cent who believe changes in the climate are due to "the effect of normal warming and cooling patterns that rise and fall" over time.
- In Alberta, 51 per cent do not believe greenhouse gases are heating up the planet. The province is also home to the tar sands, one of the world's largest oil reserves, which could see industry emissions double over the next decade.
ottawacitizen _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6388 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2006 7:40 am Post subject: Re: Canadians expect failure on climate change
Graeme wrote:
...In Alberta, 51 per cent do not believe greenhouse gases are heating up the planet. The province is also home to the tar sands, one of the world's largest oil reserves, which could see industry emissions double over the next decade.
No surprise there. They don't want to believe it, therefore, they don't.
It's just human nature: "It isn't us! We didn't do it! How could we tiny little creatures have any effect at all on this great big world?" We have limitless powers of rationalization. It's what we do best. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:16 am Post subject: Re: Canadians expect failure on climate change
Zardoz wrote:
Graeme wrote:
...In Alberta, 51 per cent do not believe greenhouse gases are heating up the planet. The province is also home to the tar sands, one of the world's largest oil reserves, which could see industry emissions double over the next decade.
No surprise there. They don't want to believe it, therefore, they don't.
It's just human nature: "It isn't us! We didn't do it! How could we tiny little creatures have any effect at all on this great big world?" We have limitless powers of rationalization. It's what we do best.
I agree, Zardoz. If 51% of Albertans still aren't making the connection, it's because their livelihoods are dependent on the oil and gas industry, whether its responsible to the environment or not. It's as though people in the industry are collectively covering their ears, mumbling, "not listening, not listening."
The real crime is that there is still no federal or provincial legislation in place to drive the industry to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The Pembina Institute here in Alberta reports greenhouse gases from the oil sands are expected to increase fivefold (from 2003 levels) to 2020. Apparently, we are soon to have legislation introduced that may make a difference, although I'd be surprised if it's a big difference.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:41 pm Post subject: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scientists
Global warming will threaten millions say climate scientists
Quote:
Drought threatening the lives of millions will spread across half the land surface of the earth in the coming century because of global warming, according to new predictions from Britain's leading climate scientists.
Extreme drought, in which agriculture is effectively impossible, will affect nearly a third of the planet, according to the study from the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
It is one of the direst forecasts so far of the potential effects of rising temperatures around the world - yet it may be an underestimate, the scientists involved said yesterday.
nzherald _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:26 pm Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
The ending of the article is spookier than the beginning. Recommended reading.
I also sited this article after reading it from your link in a Monte/Biofuel thread, hope you don't mind. _________________ abundance fleeting
men falling like hungry leaves
decay masters all
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6388 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:54 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
This is exactly what we've been talking about, isn't it? To our great sorrow and distress, it's looking more and more like we super-doomers are going to be proved horribly right.
Quote:
"It is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will mean huge migration off the land at levels we have not seen before...It will mean huge conflict."
..."There's almost no aspect of life in the developing countries that these predictions don't undermine...for hundreds of millions of people for whom getting through the day is already a struggle, this is going to push them over the precipice."
...we're talking about 30 per cent of the world's land surface becoming essentially uninhabitable in terms of agricultural production in the space of a few decades...hundreds of millions of people will no longer be able to feed themselves where they live, and will need to migrate to areas of the world that are still inhabitable.
...The vast majority of poor people in the developing world are small-scale farmers who have no technology and rely on rain for food and livelihood and survival; they're in a position where if you push them only slightly, they're going to fall off...
850 million people are malnourished right now. Even a slight reduction in crop production will start the die-off. According to this study, now it really is only a matter of time, and according to James Lovelock (and others), it's too late to do anything about it. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:12 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
Zardoz wrote:
This is exactly what we've been talking about, isn't it? To our great sorrow and distress, it's looking more and more like we super-doomers are going to be proved horribly right.
I'll see your doom and bet it all.
Quote:
"It is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will mean huge migration off the land at levels we have not seen before...It will mean huge conflict."
It just means the continuing trend of humanity of centralization of agriculture as the world continues to industrialize. Climate change isn't 'global drying' either.
Quote:
...we're talking about 30 per cent of the world's land surface becoming essentially uninhabitable in terms of agricultural production in the space of a few decades...hundreds of millions of people will no longer be able to feed themselves where they live, and will need to migrate to areas of the world that are still inhabitable.
Thats a funny number. 30 percent of what? The currently arable land, or the total land? Whats the total change? This sounds like theres some number fudging...
Quote:
850 million people are malnourished right now. Even a slight reduction in crop production will start the die-off. According to this study, now it really is only a matter of time, and according to James Lovelock (and others), it's too late to do anything about it.
I'll bet gold and guns against the doomers hard cash that the population doesnt die off in the next five decades. It increases, and continues to industrialize.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6388 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:43 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
Dezakin wrote:
I'll bet gold and guns against the doomers hard cash that the population doesnt die off in the next five decades. It increases, and continues to industrialize.
Please cite the data upon which you will be basing your bet. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:29 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
Doly wrote:
Nobody seems too sure about where climate is going, exactly, except a warmer average. It could actually become drier on average, for all we know.
That seems to be counterintuitive because as the average heat, aka the total amount of energy in our environment, increases, the percentage of water vaporized increases. Which I associate with a wetter environment.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:33 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
One billion down, 3.5 billion to go, before we reach a sustainable population.
---
Re. the numbers: As I understand it, 50% will become more dry, 40% will become much more dry, and 30% will turn into desert. The way the numbers work is: each of the smaller numbers is nested within the total. So a more user-friendly way to say this is:
50% of Earth becomes drier to one degree or another, ranging from "more dry" to "much more dry" to "desert."
Within that 50%, some will become much more dry. That would be about 40% of Earth total, or 80% of the 50%.
Also within the 50%, some will become desert. That would be about 30% of Earth total, or 60% of the 50%.
The last point could also be stated thus: within the 40% that becomes much more dry, some amount will become desert. That would still be about 30% of Earth total, or about 75% of the 40%.
Is that any more clear? Think of it as three overlapping pie charts, where the increasingly dry area is a smaller slice of pie, and the slices overlap.
---
I'll bet on doom rather than continued population increase. Emerging diseases will see to that.
Where we end up is: rather than going all the way down to a sustainable 2 billion, we go down to just below the threshold where major dieoff phenomena such as pandemics and global wars occur. To my mind that would be about 4 billion. And we bump along just below that level, much like a helium balloon that's bumping along the ceiling of a room as it gets blown by a breeze from one side of the room to the other.
---
How more-moist air becomes more drought on the ground: The distribution of water changes in a manner that is adverse to the ability of humans to adapt.
For example, some regions end up with an excess of water: flooding. Some flood due to sea level rise, others flood due to changes in precipitation patterns.
Some regions end up with lower levels of precipitation, i.e. drought, and turn into desert.
Here's what happens to northern California: Temperatures rise, resulting in more of the winter precipitation coming down as rain than as snow, and also resulting in the winter snowpack melting faster than normal. Thus we still get the same total amount of precipitation as before, but it comes down in a rush of liquid water off the mountains in a much shorter period of time each year than before. This in turn exceeds the capacity of reservoirs, which were originally built to take advantage of the "water storage" of the natural snowpacks on mountains. So during the winter we have to let a significant amount of our water out the sluices because it can't be stored.
In addition, the higher volumes and faster speeds of water flow during the winter and spring, will also cause an increase of soil erosion in the watercourses that feed the reservoirs. Loss of soil is a problem in its own right. And the buildup of silt behind the dams and in the reservoirs, at a time when the available energy for dredging it out is declining, is an additional problem.
Even if we get an overall increase in winter rainfall, it will not be usable for the reasons above. Thus, "water, water, everywhere, and not a drop to drink."
We could try building a bunch of nuclear plants along the coast and using them for desalinization as well as electricity production. However the coast is seismically hazardous up and down the state, so the best places to build those reactors are at inland locations that are stable but distant from the bay and ocean. What's likely to happen at some point is, a reactor in the central valley, with large-diameter pipes to convey water from the ocean or bay, and fresh water output to the central canals that send water to Los Angeles. That would be a benign solution, and better than stealing more water from the north.
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:24 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
[quote="Dezakin"]
Quote:
...we're talking about 30 per cent of the world's land surface becoming essentially uninhabitable in terms of agricultural production in the space of a few decades...hundreds of millions of people will no longer be able to feed themselves where they live, and will need to migrate to areas of the world that are still inhabitable.
Quote:
Thats a funny number. 30 percent of what? The currently arable land, or the total land? Whats the total change? This sounds like
theres some number fudging...
From the same article ..
"The study, by Eleanor Burke and two Hadley Centre colleagues, models how a measure of drought known as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is likely to increase globally during the coming century with predicted changes in rainfall and heat around the world because of climate change. It shows the PDSI figure for moderate drought, currently at 25 per cent of the Earth's surface, rising to 50 per cent by 2100, the figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent, rising to 40 cent, and the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, rising to 30 per cent."
Any way you look at it, this is a dramatic change (excuse me, anyway I look at it, this is unnerving to put it mildly).
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:29 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
Well, if it is not one thing it is another.
This climatic model may be complete crap or it may be reasonable. Weather is such a complex issue that I would not rely on any model at this point; hell, the weatherman can't even get it right for a few weeks out, much decades.
Whenever a population reaches extreme and unprecedented levels, such as we, vunerability increase; there is less and less margin for error. The effect of climatic swings become more significant at these levels. The effect of economic breakdown becomes more significant at these levels. It seems to me that we are more and more dependent upon less and less dependable systems.
So maybe failure of our resource base like peak oil will take us out, or maybe climatic driven failure of our agricultural systems will take us out, or maybe it will be something else, but it defies logic to think that we can go from an historic norm of less than 1/2 billion to 6.5 billion population in 400 years and expect everything to indefinitely chug along smoothly.
Personally, I think there are much more immediate causes for concern than possible drought a few decades from now. I think that Richard Duncan's permanent failure of the electric system will happen much sooner than that. I think that economic and agricultural failure from lack of input resources is also a much more immediate concern.
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:44 am Post subject: Re: Global warming will threaten millions say climate scient
Quote from the Guardian article:
Quote:
Using a climate model, they showed that in the last decade of the 20th century droughts were nearly 25% more widespread than in the previous 40 years.
When the scientists altered the model to remove the warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, they found that droughts barely changed. "It's clear the increase in drought we've seen in the past decade or so has in part been down to human activity," said Dr Pope. The scientists next used the model to predict how droughts were likely to change in the coming century, assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue on an upward trend. "It amounts to a doubling of droughts," said Dr Pope.
Uncertainties in the model mean the prediction may overstate the threat of droughts, but until further studies are done it will be impossible to know by how much, she added.
First of all this is all modeled and requires positive feedbacks in CO2 to occur which noone is certain will happen. If on the other hand we see water vapor increasing as a negative feedback it is entirely possible that you could see more rain and less droughts. The one really compelling statement is that "the prediction may overstate the threat of droughts".....precisely but it didn't stop them from doing just that...overstating the threat. This sort of fear mongering is doing no one any favors, especially the scientists who are diligently working away in the background. All it takes is a few overblown predictions to fail and they lose all of their credibility. I think we are currently seeing that happen with the "windbags" (pun intented here) who predicted global warming was the cause of increasing frequency and strength of hurricanes and that this year would be worse than the last. I've come across a number of statements in the press ridiculing these predicitions and as a consequence the scientists doing the actual research. This sort of thing is not conducive to getting to the answers to my mind.
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