I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
I've been keeping an eye on sea ice now for over 8 years.. not
much time, but enough to have some idea of the situation. At least
I'd like to think so.
I think the Independent's " Climate change 'irreversible' as Arctic
sea ice fails to re-form" headline a bit sensationalist. It's
true the sea ice has been shrinking overall (especially compared
to decades ago) but it most definitely did 'reform' this Winter.
See for yourself. You can check the extent and integrity of the
ice here:
I think what's more important is the fact the ice is now much thinner
than in years past, and the extent of the summer melt much greater.
To the point most of the Artic is ice free during part of the
Summer. I seem to recall reading reports of ice breakers and subs
that need to break trough the ice having a much easier time doing
this than in decades past. If you look at the above link, you'll
see the ice not nearly as solid as it was just a few decades ago.
The only place that's completely ice is above Greenland and Ellesmere
island.
Another timely example, Hudson bay may already be starting to thaw.
This is early. Hudson bay is usually not completely ice free until
at least June.
Here's the visible shot for March 14, 2006
Note the rift/fracture running north/south down the length of the
bay in this viz satellite shot. Hudson bay will often thaw from east
to west.
{ croc-hunter voice } Let's have a closer look...
And, the sea ice page confirms this rift:
What's interesting is how quickly the ice appears to be breaking
up. Looking at the last shot (sea ice) you can trace the weakened ice
all the way to ocean through the Hudson Strait. So I think this tells
us the ice is not nearly as thick as it used to be, and the ocean
waters are warmer. Normally one doesn't start to see this kind of
thaw until late March or April.
All the signals we are getting from the high Arctic are pointing to
a sudden and dramatic warming. It's indisputable. The recent news
that greenland may be shedding it's ice much more quickly than previously
thought possible is dire news. Unlike sea ice, the huge landlocked
glaciers in Greenland have the potential to dramatically raise sea
levels.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:09 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
I appreciate the evenhandedness of this post. It's easy to get overwhelmed by bad news and just write "the sky is falling" without digging into the data. Yes, we have a LOT to worry about, but it's good to know what specifc things are most significant. Here on PO.com, we are blessed with a plethora of people who watch specific areas of the "threat spectrum" like Pup55's great analysis of supply/demand, and your post, Eric.
Ultimately we can watch this all unfold, but are distinctly powerless to do anything about it. I just hope the ocean stops about 100 feet from our place.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
Raxozanne wrote:
Poor polar bears
Tis true. The great white beasts are now well on their way to extinction.
They rely on the ice as part of their hunting strategy. The shorter season
means they're all running a bit leaner... Mum isn't able to fatten up as
well to feed those hungry cubs. Another tragedy unfolds.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
jdumars wrote:
I appreciate the evenhandedness of this post. It's easy to get overwhelmed by bad news and just write "the sky is falling" without digging into the data. Yes, we have a LOT to worry about, but it's good to know what specifc things are most significant. Here on PO.com, we are blessed with a plethora of people who watch specific areas of the "threat spectrum" like Pup55's great analysis of supply/demand, and your post, Eric.
Ultimately we can watch this all unfold, but are distinctly powerless to do anything about it. I just hope the ocean stops about 100 feet from our place.
Thanks.
I agree completely with your sentiments. There's really nothing to be
done about the situation. I've become fatalistic about it.
There's just no way we're going to stop burning all fossil fuels until they
are gone. Too much inertia to stop things on a dime. So things will run
their course. Hopefully the more dire GW predictions will not come to pass.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:44 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
Zardoz wrote:
Raxozanne wrote:
Poor polar bears
Poor us...
POOR BLOODY INNUIT ! _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
eric_b wrote:
jdumars wrote:
I appreciate the evenhandedness of this post. It's easy to get overwhelmed by bad news and just write "the sky is falling" without digging into the data. Yes, we have a LOT to worry about, but it's good to know what specifc things are most significant. Here on PO.com, we are blessed with a plethora of people who watch specific areas of the "threat spectrum" like Pup55's great analysis of supply/demand, and your post, Eric.
Ultimately we can watch this all unfold, but are distinctly powerless to do anything about it. I just hope the ocean stops about 100 feet from our place.
Thanks.
I agree completely with your sentiments. There's really nothing to be
done about the situation. I've become fatalistic about it.
There's just no way we're going to stop burning all fossil fuels until they
are gone. Too much inertia to stop things on a dime. So things will run
their course. Hopefully the more dire GW predictions will not come to pass.
Eric -
While I agree with jdumars compliment on your excellent post, I have to differ with this externally imposed notion of powerlessness.
Just who is telling you there's nothing you can do ? And why, when it comes down to it, should you believe them ?
The propaganda that "we're past the tipping point" is just that, merely the latest version of a long line of propaganda to maintain peoples' apathy.
In reality, while we are committed to some climate destabilization, we're nowhere near the tipping point where the feedback loops overwhelm the carbon sinks,
and so start generating further warming regardless of any cuts in human emissions.
We are heading towards that point but we're not there yet -
and we still have the choice of pulling together to achieve a global treaty of the atmospheric commons
by which to rapidly phase out fossil fuel dependence in an orderly manner.
If this possibility should be of interest to you, then have a look at
www.gci.org.uk
to see how far we've got.
You never know - your two pennorth could be critical . . .
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:27 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
backstop wrote:
Eric -
While I agree with jdumars compliment on your excellent post, I have to differ with this externally imposed notion of powerlessness.
Just who is telling you there's nothing you can do ? And why, when it comes down to it, should you believe them ?
The propaganda that "we're past the tipping point" is just that, merely the latest version of a long line of propaganda to maintain peoples' apathy.
In reality, while we are committed to some climate destabilization, we're nowhere near the tipping point where the feedback loops overwhelm the carbon sinks,
and so start generating further warming regardless of any cuts in human emissions.
We are heading towards that point but we're not there yet -
and we still have the choice of pulling together to achieve a global treaty of the atmospheric commons
by which to rapidly phase out fossil fuel dependence in an orderly manner.
If this possibility should be of interest to you, then have a look at
www.gci.org.uk
to see how far we've got.
You never know - your two pennorth could be critical . . .
regards,
Backstop
I admire your attitude. Personally I've done what I can. I don't own,
nor do I drive, a car. Compared to most people in the US I live frugally.
How many people can say their electric bill is under $25.00 a month
these days? I can.
And I agree we should have more discussions on this globally...
But do you really see things changing, at least in the short term - say
the next 20 years? Why, if peak-oil and economic meltdown are really
almost upon us all these concerns will take a backseat to survival for
most people. Environment be damned.
It really is a nasty pickle we've gotten ourselves into, and I don't see any
easy way out.
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1173 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:31 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
eric_b wrote:
But do you really see things changing, at least in the short term - say
the next 20 years?
At the moment the status quo seems intractable in its direction hence your hopelessness. I understand this also. I will let Backstop speak for himself but I am cautiously optimistic that cultural adaptation will occur when we are forced to adapt to a less energy consumptive lifestyle once fossil fuel depletion really kicks in. This may very well be coupled with increasingly alarming consequences of global warming and perhaps other environmental stresses. This forced cultural adaptation to less consumption can lead to a cultural transformation toward sustainability if as a result we learn to cherish energy for the precious commodity that it is and we then start designing our economy and infrastructure accordingly. We will be walking a knife's edge though since we will need events that are destabilizing enough to frighten us into being compelled to adapt but not so destabilizing that we collapse. Without this scenario I share your pessimism but with this scenario we have a chance to transform. Will this happen in the next twenty years? I say it is likely.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:16 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
eric_b wrote:
Tis true. The great white beasts are now well on their way to extinction.
The bears or the two-legged beasts?
I fear it may be both. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:38 am Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
Biodiversity won't suffer as much as we will from global climate change. The world has been through far far worse.
There have instances of extinction where it is likely that the earth was down to a handful of bacterial colonies (before multi-cellular organisms came on the scene). Several times in Earth's history, 50-90% of all species were wiped out. So I'd fret less about biodiversity and look at the implications for humankind.
Desertification and erosion of farmlands and flooding of coastal cities are just a few of the problems facing mankind because of climate change. We will hurt ourselves far far far more in the future by disregarding the implications of climate change than by enacting a few carbon-cutting measurements. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2006 8:53 am Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
Quote:
Desertification and erosion of farmlands and flooding of coastal cities are just a few of the problems facing mankind because of climate change. We will hurt ourselves far far far more in the future by disregarding the implications of climate change than by enacting a few carbon-cutting measurements.
As far as I'm concerned you could not be more right. It is clear that the whole debate on climate change has gone in the wrong direction.....ie. man causes it so we should fix it. Roger Pielke, who by no means is what people refer to as a global warming denier, argues that rather than spending any money trying to fix a problem that we do not understand at all it is better to take the trillions of dollars that will be otherwise wasted and invest them into climate adaptation where it is necessary. This would mean relocation of large populations, facility upgrades (cooling in certain places, heating in others), changes in agricultural practices etc. The point is climate is indeed changing, it is always changing....getting colder or warmer and if past history can be used as a template it is unlikely that man is the prime director of that change. Survival requires adaptation....much as the Norse who, finding Greenland climate changing such that they could no longer grow crops or fish year round, simply got on their boats and left for more suitable climes.
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2006 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
It's very easy to say "change agricultural practices", but that assumes that we know how climate is going to change in a particular place - which, generally, we don't.
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2006 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Thawing Arctic - early Hudson bay thaw
It has been a truly emarkably mild winter in Canada. To sya the truth, I have enjoyed it, this global warming thing is not a completely bad news story.
"Winter warmest ever: Environment Canada
Mar. 13, 2006. 03:40 PM
Canada is experiencing its warmest winter in recorded history and Environment Canada says it may be another sign of global warming.
Between December and February, the country was 3.9 degrees above normal — the warmest winter season since temperatures were first recorded in 1948.
Climatogist Bob Whitewood says it smashed the previous record set in 1987 by 0.9 degrees, and was the kind of season that comes along once every 100 years.
It was especially balmy in Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories, where temperatures were six to eight degrees above normal.
Whitewood says the last 10 winters have been warmer than normal and along with this winter reflect a trend that could be explained as global warming.
He says Environment Canada will spend the next year examining the data to see if it's an aberration or evidence of a trend."
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