Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Will our economy survive continuous Oil/Energy decline?
Yes
13%
[ 36 ]
No
64%
[ 167 ]
maybe (see comments)
13%
[ 35 ]
I don't know
7%
[ 20 ]
Total Votes : 258
Author
Message
ddd Coal
Joined: Sep 19, 2006 Posts: 1
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
MrBill wrote:
We may not have enough time to switch to alternative energy to run our existing infrastructure before petroluem goes into irreversible decline. It is quite possible that our existing infrastructure is simply unsustainable. Period. That is not a market failure. That is piss poor planning! ; - )
yeah...the market has planned piss-poorly. It failed.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 7:23 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
TonyPrep wrote:
You are citing examples of economies embedded in a world economy where the manufacturing industries have largely been exported by the countries you cite. So the global economy is, perhaps, the only example of a full economy right now. And energy consumption is increasing globally, at about 2% per year.
Perhaps you'd like to consider whether the countries you mention could cut themselves off from the rest of the world, tomorrow, and continue growing their economies with declining energy use.
Sorry but I don't buy the excuse of "exported manufacturing industries". Almost all OECD countries had been transfering manufacture industries for several years, but many still have been increasing its energy use (my own country, for instance). Why energy patterns are so different? Could depend on more in energy efficiency and fuel taxes individual policies?
Anyway, if we look to the whole picture, even the 2% growing on energy use it's smaller than the GDP growth, so in case than the global energy use stalls or decreases slightly it will be some GDP growing. It's mathematically coherent.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
isgota wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
You are citing examples of economies embedded in a world economy where the manufacturing industries have largely been exported by the countries you cite. So the global economy is, perhaps, the only example of a full economy right now. And energy consumption is increasing globally, at about 2% per year.
Perhaps you'd like to consider whether the countries you mention could cut themselves off from the rest of the world, tomorrow, and continue growing their economies with declining energy use.
Sorry but I don't buy the excuse of "exported manufacturing industries". Almost all OECD countries had been transfering manufacture industries for several years, but many still have been increasing its energy use (my own country, for instance). Why energy patterns are so different? Could depend on more in energy efficiency and fuel taxes individual policies?
Anyway, if we look to the whole picture, even the 2% growing on energy use it's smaller than the GDP growth, so in case than the global energy use stalls or decreases slightly it will be some GDP growing. It's mathematically coherent.
No, it's not. You are simply presupposing that GDP and Energy either have 1:1 relationship or Energy and GDP are decoupled. Neither is true.
GDP is simply a (poor) measure of economic activity, that activity requires energy, and the efficency of converting that energy in to economic activity determines the ratio.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1969 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
isgota wrote:
Sorry but I don't buy the excuse of "exported manufacturing industries".
It's not an excuse. Give me an example of a self-sufficient region or nation growing their economy without using more energy and resources. Quoting countries that are not self-sufficient doesn't prove anything, since they will be importing stuff that uses resources.
isgota wrote:
Anyway, if we look to the whole picture, even the 2% growing on energy use it's smaller than the GDP growth, so in case than the global energy use stalls or decreases slightly it will be some GDP growing. It's mathematically coherent.
Not by any maths that I'm familiar with. A 2% energy growth, with a 4% GDP growth, for example, means that each percent of energy increase is yielding a 2% growth in GDP. Or, to put it another way, take away 1% of energy growth and you take away 2% of economic growth. Take away the whole 2% of energy growth and you don't get any economic growth. That's for the global economy as a whole, possibly the only example of a full economy.
Of course, economies may be able to become more efficient and get even more from each BTU, but that still doesn't decouple energy and economic growth (indeed, it could make the economic effects of decline worse).
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
MrBill wrote:
Yes, as measured by GDP output per energy input. As well OECD energy consumption delcined in the past 12-months, while the economy(s) posted positive economic growth. That growth cannot survive in the absence of energy inputs, but it is clear that we can do more with less.
Or, as in the case of the last few ywears, rely on financial speculation to drive GDP.
Doesn't take alot of energy to just resell stuff already made.
I've read several places the 40% of world GDP growth is pure financial speculation and not a real growth in incomes or wages. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
isgota wrote:
In a short answer, yes, you can have economic growth with declining energy.
No, you just think you can.
Nothing grows without an input of energy.
There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Either the law of diminishing returns catches up with you or you finally have to start making stuff intead of just reselling stuff already made at inflated illusionary prices to drive GDP.
Wealth created in this manner is a phantom. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 8:18 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
TonyPrep wrote:
isgota wrote:
Sorry but I don't buy the excuse of "exported manufacturing industries".
It's not an excuse. Give me an example of a self-sufficient region or nation growing their economy without using more energy and resources. Quoting countries that are not self-sufficient doesn't prove anything, since they will be importing stuff that uses resources.
isgota wrote:
Anyway, if we look to the whole picture, even the 2% growing on energy use it's smaller than the GDP growth, so in case than the global energy use stalls or decreases slightly it will be some GDP growing. It's mathematically coherent.
Not by any maths that I'm familiar with. A 2% energy growth, with a 4% GDP growth, for example, means that each percent of energy increase is yielding a 2% growth in GDP. Or, to put it another way, take away 1% of energy growth and you take away 2% of economic growth. Take away the whole 2% of energy growth and you don't get any economic growth. That's for the global economy as a whole, possibly the only example of a full economy.
Economic growth compared to energy consumption hasn't been linear AFAIK. From ~80-85, world energy consumption energy consumption was at an average of ~0-1%/year, while world GDP was at an average of ~2-3% per year. _________________
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
yesplease wrote:
Economic growth compared to energy consumption hasn't been linear AFAIK. From ~80-85, world energy consumption energy consumption was at an average of ~0-1%/year, while world GDP was at an average of ~2-3% per year.
But has there ever been a period of sustained economic growth (eg at least several successive years) while energy consumption has been declining in a sustained way for the same period?
Perhaps it can be done if, like Monte said, growth is driven by empty financial speculation and trading of bizarre new-fangled debt instruments etc. I would call this "Ponzi Growth", or maybe "Enron Growth". Whatever you call it, it's bound to fall apart before long in a very painful way.
Alternatively, you could try to sutain growth with declining energy by "cutting the fat" out of the economy ie putting a stop to needless wastage of energy, for example turning off TV's and lights when no one is in the room. But again this sort of repsonse can only work for so long, and the definition of "needless wastage" can become contentious as the low hanging fruit is picked-particularly because alot of economic activity, factors of production, and employment are now tied up in "needless" goods and services.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
Precipice wrote:
But has there ever been a period of sustained economic growth (eg at least several successive years) while energy consumption has been declining in a sustained way for the same period?
I imagine an increase in GDP of ~2-3% w/ 0-1% increase in energy use could be equivalent to a ~1% increase in GDP and ~1-2% decline in energy for several years, but as for real data, it's never happened. That being said, peak oil does not mean peak energy, it means more expensive liquid fuel, possibly peak liquid fuels. We have seen several years of economic growth with declining oil consumption, so at the very least that's possible, and I think even w/ declining energy consumption, it's possible.
Precipice wrote:
Perhaps it can be done if, like Monte said, growth is driven by empty financial speculation and trading of bizarre new-fangled debt instruments etc. I would call this "Ponzi Growth", or maybe "Enron Growth". Whatever you call it, it's bound to fall apart before long in a very painful way.
I don't think we need to rip people off for economic activity, just spur it in areas other than liquid fuels. To a certain extent I've seen this happening locally, w/ some stores that only have competition ~80 miles away round trip booming. Instead of spending ~$20 on fuel and however much whatever they're doing, they'll spend that amount on local goods/services. That isn't a ponzi scheme, just localization.
Precipice wrote:
Alternatively, you could try to sutain growth with declining energy by "cutting the fat" out of the economy ie putting a stop to needless wastage of energy, for example turning off TV's and lights when no one is in the room. But again this sort of repsonse can only work for so long, and the definition of "needless wastage" can become contentious as the low hanging fruit is picked-particularly because alot of economic activity, factors of production, and employment are now tied up in "needless" goods and services.
Cutting out the fat will help but it isn't required. Depending on the magnitude of increase, it (and replacement) allows for people to keep the same ratio of discretionary spending, but it isn't needed per say, since discretionary spending changes all the time, regardless of the influence of fuel costs. _________________
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1969 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
yesplease wrote:
That being said, peak oil does not mean peak energy
True, but it would just be the first of a series of peaks in many of our energy sources, all of which are of a fairly high energy density. First oil then natural gas and coal. Of course, estimates vary but it may well be that peaks of these occur within a decade or two of each other. Oil represents about 38% of global energy use. Natural gas and coal are also large proportions. I don't remember the total, off hand, but I think it's of the order of 80-90% of our energy needs are sourced through fossil fuels, globally.
yesplease wrote:
it means more expensive liquid fuel, possibly peak liquid fuels.
Yes, the crucial thing is "peak". If we peak in liquid fuels (as some day we must) then many activities that currently require liquid fuels will become more difficult, more expensive or more scarce. These include air travel and sea travel. Oil is also a feedstock to other processes. I think about 75% of oil is used for various liquid fuels (less than half of US consumption is for transport fuels - or is that just gasoline, I'm not sure). So substitutes for those processes will need to be found at the same scale, utility and cost, or else some of those processes will likely be cut back.
yesplease wrote:
Cutting out the fat will help but it isn't required.
It will be if suitable substitutes can't be found on the same scale as the declines and for similar uses. In that case, prioritising would be needed. This amounts to cutting the fat.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:50 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
Monte,
Yes..I saw a similar report except they were projecting 1 new plant a week. The truth probably lies between the two. Another bit of trivia: about 10 Chinese coal miners were dying weekly also. Good to have surplus population at times.
John - actually WalMart was doing great the last I saw. Average purchase per customer was down a little but customer count increases were really boosting their sales. Just the opposite of my expectations a year ago. Apparently a lot of folks are shifting from the higher end stores to WalMart. I wonder if the $1 stores have seen an income boost. Maybe their sales will become a good economic indicator of how quickly matters are getting worse.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3 ... 17, 18, 19
Page 19 of 19
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
