For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 9:53 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
There is also a bit of hidden reality in those numbers. As the exporters start to deplete, they will still keep their own consumption up. So that means the over all depletion as far as the rest of the world is concerned will be much higher, and accelerating
Take Iran's official statement or 400,000bpd depletion per year. This gives them depletion rate of around 10% (4m bbl/d total production).
however they will just reduce their exports so if we assume 10% decline for the country this gives us exports of:
2007 - 2,150,000 (16% reduction, -400,000bpd)
2008 - 1,790,000 (17% reduction, -360,000bpd)
2009 - 1,420,000 (18% reduction, -324,000bpd)
2010 - 1,133,000 (20% reduction, -278,000bpd)
...
2015 - Net importer.
This is also optomistic because as long as they are not nuked, their economy will grow very rapidly as they rake in cash. So if we give them a consumption growth of 3.5% (2004 industrial growth rate), they become net importers by 2013.
Something to consider when looking at Cambell's graph of oil production. Available oil supply looks considerably different depending on whether you look at it as an Exporter or an Importer (unless of course you have a binding delivery contract with a nuclear armed neighbour )
(for my data I used the CIA factbook, and news article posted up front about Iran's depletion) _________________ Angry yet?
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
Why does South Korea import so much oil? More than France? Almost as much as Germany? Surely it hasn't the level of car ownership or mobility of either of those countries?
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
malcomatic_51 wrote:
Why does South Korea import so much oil? More than France? Almost as much as Germany? Surely it hasn't the level of car ownership or mobility of either of those countries?
It takes quite a lot of energy to build America's keyboards and powersupplies. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3431 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
malcomatic_51 wrote:
Why does South Korea import so much oil? More than France? Almost as much as Germany? Surely it hasn't the level of car ownership or mobility of either of those countries?
Among other reason South Korea has 48 million people and 14.9 million private cars and buiulds about 1 million cars per year.
France has a population of about 60 million and builds about 250,000 cars per year, I couldn't find a figure on private car ownership. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 4:10 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
pstarr wrote:
malcomatic_51 wrote:
Why does South Korea import so much oil? More than France? Almost as much as Germany? Surely it hasn't the level of car ownership or mobility of either of those countries?
It takes quite a lot of energy to build America's keyboards and powersupplies.
Thats an interesting point ... I wonder what percentage of the oil imported into China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan etc is required to produce goods for the United States.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
kokoda wrote:
pstarr wrote:
malcomatic_51 wrote:
Why does South Korea import so much oil? More than France? Almost as much as Germany? Surely it hasn't the level of car ownership or mobility of either of those countries?
It takes quite a lot of energy to build America's keyboards and powersupplies.
Thats an interesting point ... I wonder what percentage of the oil imported into China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan etc is required to produce goods for the United States.
Plastics are hydrocarbons (made from petroleum.) _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3431 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2006 5:50 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 net oil importing and exporting countries.
Kingcoal wrote:
Plastics are hydrocarbons (made from petroleum.)
While it is true that all plastics are hydrocarbons it is NOT true that all hydrocarbons come from Petroleum. Right now the vast bulk of them do because oil is cheap, but nylon was originally made from Mulberry pulp/sap and Casin plastics IIRC were made from whole milk. Eliminate oil and you might also take milk out of the Western diet, but would that be a really bad thing? _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
These 11 European countries with an area and population quite similer to the USA import 14,226,600. Leave out the UK because they still export part of the time and you still get 13,142,600 _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
