Hard crash or soft landing ??

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2471 Location: ^NNE^

BOOOM.

Picture dude on life-support.

Picture kink in tube. XXonlyamother

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"By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price

dauterman · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 70

Hi,

The US doesn't have a plan for PO and the conversion will be done piecemeal. As the price of oil/gas climbs SUVs and other guzzlers will be retired and in their place will be fuel efficient hybrids.

Wind turbine electricity is now comptetitive with fossil fuel powered electric generation. Once oil tops $60 a barrel wind energy becomes comparatively cheaper. Look for the wind turbine electric generation industry to expand rapidly in the 2006 to 2010 time frame.

Once oil goes over $80 a barrel biodiesel becomes less expensive than petrodiesel. Look for large scale biodiesel farming to start.

Ethanol probably wouldn't be competitive with gasoline until oil tops $100 a barrel. The US is already maxed out for hydroelectric - there's a hydroeclectric generation station everywhere it's technically possible to build one.

The change will be slow and gradual, driven by progressivly higher oil prices. The Pollyanna economists may never admit that Peak Oil exists and may claim that all the changes that are happening are market driven.

Interestingly, Europe looks to be far ahead of the US in renewables - Germany alone has 16.6 Gigawatts of wind turbines compared to only 6.7 Gigawatts in the US. Germany also is far ahead in biodiesel production.

The European union has plans to change over to virtually all renewable energy sources by 2050. See:

http://www.inforse.org/europe/Vision2050.htm

Although they do not specifically mention Peak Oil they say "For fossil fuels are expected a gradual phase-out of coal-use until, a slow but increasing phase-out of oil use till 2050 and a growing gas consumption until 2010, followed by phase-out until 2050."

That sounds to me alot like what all PO people think will happen to the fossil fuels.

Another quote: "The vision follows the EU target of 12% renewable energy in 2010, and the target proposed by a large number of NGOs of 25% renewable energy in 2020. The shares of renewable energy in 2030, and 2050 respectively are 35%, and above 95%."