Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:32 pm Post subject: The Powerdown Solution: The Plan
The Powerdown Solution: The Plan
We find ourselves at a crossroads on the path to our future. Unlike most animals, we have the ability to reason, predict, and anticipate the consequences of our actions. But by the time mankind had a grasp on science/ecology and realized there were limits, he was already past many of them. Our “special nature” and uniqueness came a little too late. Yes, in the animal kingdom we reign supreme; and with an unmatched arrogance and hubris, we have dominated and exploited our world in a cheap and selfish way, almost totally disregarding nature and the descendants who will inherit our legacy.
There are those who suggest there are no limits, and that technology and the “invisible hand of the market” will always be there to circumvent or overcome them, while others question that assumption with good reason. We seem to find ourselves set exclusively on proving the impossibility of growth, and we are easily deluded by a simple, but false conclusion: that since exponential growth in a finite world leads to disasters of all kinds, ecological salvation must then lie in the stationary or steady state; a utopian world in which both population and necessary resources remain constant. The false conclusion here is not seeing that not only growth, but also a zero-growth state, in fact, even a declining state which does not converge toward a die-off, cannot exist forever in a finite environment. Life is a cycle of birth, death, and renewal; not a linear growth process into infinity.
A steady-state world may for a while be in harmony with its environment, but this utopian world cannot last forever; sooner or later the balancing system will collapse. At that time, the steady state will enter a crisis which will defeat its alleged design and nature.
Undoubtedly, the current growth must cease and be reversed. But anyone who believes that he can draw a blueprint for the ecological salvation of the human species does not understand the nature of evolution, or even of history — which is that of a permanent struggle for survival in continuously novel forms. So, any blueprint must really be a rough sketch that evolves and changes over time; it can’t be carved in stone.
Having said that, will mankind listen to any plan that implies a constriction of its addiction to creature comforts? Perhaps the destiny of man is to have a short extravagant life in a constant battle with his environment, rather than a long introspective one in harmony with it. The necessary conclusion of the arguments in favor of that latter vision is that the most desirable state is not a steady state, but a declining one.
So, I present for your review, my Powerdown Solution Plan for the World.
There will be several phases. This thread will stay locked until all the phases are complete. At that time it will be opened for debate to all comers subject only to the rules of the Code of Conduct and site policy. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to it's completion.
1. A one-child per woman policy along with incentives, such as paying women not to have children.
2. Free abortion, birth control, and sterilization on demand.
3. Advocate careful legal Euthanasia and assisted suicide/promote as a valid, moral choice.
4. Advocate the elimination of assisted life support and extraneous means to prolong life.
5. Advocate an end to most organ transplants/promote a better lifestyle to reduce the need for them.
6. Promote family planning and education/teach population ecology in the schools at an early age.
7. Ban fertility clinics and artificial insemination/give infertile couples preference to adopt.
8. Food production must be planned in concert with projected population decline and be shared equitably.
9. Address religious and other cultural traditions that oppose birth control.
10. Narrow the inequity amongst the world’s people/ promote rural energy development in poor countries.
11. Establish a long-term goal of population reduction through birth control and euthanasia to 2 billion people on earth.
12. Target areas of high birth rate/energy consumption.
A one-child per woman policy would achieve zero population growth in 25 years. With the other policies we might achieve ZPG sooner, or at the very least, make up for any abuse of the one-child policy. A food production decrease, as the population declines, is an essential factor in achieving these goals and sustaining them. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Prometheus was one of the most interesting characters in Greek Mythology. He was the Titan who stole fire from Zeus and the gods and gave it to mortals for the benefit of mankind. As the introducer of fire, he is seen as the patron of human civilization.
Among the countless technologies humans have developed, only two have increased our power over the environment in any significant way. Economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, 1906-1994, called these Promethean technologies.
Prometheus I was fire; exceptional in its nature to convert chemical to heat energy in a sustained chain reaction so long as sufficient fuel is available.
Prometheus II was the heat engine. Like fire, a heat engine achieves a conversion of heat energy into mechanical work, and sustains it in a more complex chain reaction process by supplying surplus energy.
We burn fossil fuels in these heat engines. But fossil fuels are finite and produce major alterations to the earth’s carbon cycle, i.e., global warming. Thus, humanity faces a fundamental challenge: We need to find Prometheus III and replace fossil fuels with solar technologies that have Promethean gift qualities.
In my opinion, the following qualities are critical:
First, the new energy technologies must be renewable and sustainable.
Second, they must provide for a decentralization of energy production and be scalable.
Third, they must eliminate or substantially reduce carbon emissions.
The diffuse nature of incoming solar radiation requires a significant investment of energy and materials to capture, collect, and concentrate sunlight. This means that many solar technologies deliver a lower energy surplus than fossil fuels. Equally important, the huge infrastructure required to collect solar energy is made from fossil fuels. Solar technologies, therefore, currently are “parasites” on fossil fuel systems because they cannot “reproduce” themselves.
So, to make the transition to renewable energies, we must “powerdown” our civilization and learn to live in a world of modest, bio-regionally organized communities living on received solar energy. For the next half-century there will be just enough energy resources left to enable either a horrific and futile contest for the remaining spoils, or a heroic cooperative effort toward radical conservation and transition to a post-fossil-fuel energy regime. Technological change is shaped in part by the physical attributes of the energies available from the environment, so a world based upon renewable solar technologies is going to be different than the one we now live in.
Phase II will be: Renewable Energy(under construction) _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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