How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Is it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 1179 Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:52 pm Post subject:
NTBKtrader wrote:
Is it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo
fascinating... _________________ "If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes
"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
Is it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo
Joined: Apr 27, 2005 Posts: 108 Location: California
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:58 pm Post subject:
Lady Ruby,
It's also useful to read the critique of the IEA forecasts (and EIA and others) posted here.
The IEA does not forecast a "peak year". Doing so would be political untenable, since their member countries certainly don't want their markets to get spooked. Every 2 years, they publish the "World Energy Outlook", the latest being 2004. In it, they forecast production rising to 121 mmbd by 2030.
If you read the details, the forecast is actually conditioned on an enormous amount of investment taking place before then ($16 trillion for all energy; $3 trillion for oil & gas, of which a half-trillion in the Middle East alone), or double the annual rate of O&G investment in the 1990s. Of course, as economists, they figure more investment will naturally result in more supply, but nonetheless, I don't think it's fair to use IEA's forecasts without acknowledging such conditions. EIA doesn't even go that far--they are simply out in left-field.
I got into an argument recently with a friend who works at IEA about this, and it's obvious that they are savvier about the situation than they can acknowledge (witness the "How to Save Oil in a Hurry" publication earlier this year). But their hands are tied to actually predict a peak year.
You can find the executive summary of the World Energy Outlook 2004 here.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:04 am Post subject:
Sparaxis wrote:
In it, they forecast production rising to 121 mmbd by 2030.
The problem with this IEA figure is that it is demand based not supply based, their demand models suggest 121 million barrels per day so that's what it'll be. Where do they say it will come from? Saudi Arabia mainly but if you look at Matt Simmons work looking at Saudi Arabia from a supply point of view he says it's impossible.
Hi John, welcome to the forum!
Here is the response from Malcolm Wicks (Minister of State (Energy), Department of Trade and Industry, UK) when asked when global production of conventional crude oil will peak, very disappointing:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2005-07-18.11302.h
Chris Vernon _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
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