Methane has a very insignificant effect on the earth's greenhouse effect. You can release all of the natural gas and methane into the atmosphere at once and it would have no effect whatso ever.

Methane has a very insignificant effect on the earth's greenhouse effect. You can release all of the natural gas and methane into the atmosphere at once and it would have no effect whatso ever.

Frankly, I hope that the deniers are right. I hope that global warming is an illusion and that the climate will not change noticeably. I like our climate. I like living by the beach. I don’t want sea levels to rise or mammoth tropical storms to destroy my home.

But wishing doesn’t make it so. In fact, the Catlin Arctic Survey group just reported they expect the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice during the summer 10 years from now.

The hoped-for demise of global warming may be nothing more than a delay of the inevitable. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of global warming’s death have been greatly exaggerated.

For decades, climate scientists have worked to identify and measure key substances -- notably greenhouse gases and aerosol particles -- that affect Earth’s climate. And they’ve been aided by ever more sophisticated computer models that make estimating the relative impact of each type of pollutant more reliable.

Yet the complexity of nature -- and the models used to quantify it -- continues to serve up surprises. The most recent? Certain gases that cause warming are so closely linked with the production of aerosols that the emissions of one type of pollutant can indirectly affect the quantity of the other. And for two key gases that cause warming, these so-called “gas-aerosol interactions” can amplify their impact.

“We’ve known for years that methane and carbon monoxide have a warming effect,” said Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York and lead author of a study published this week in Science. “But our new findings suggest these gases have a significantly more powerful warming impact than previously thought.”

Methane and carbon monoxide use up hydroxyl that would otherwise produce sulfate, thereby reducing the concentration of sulfate aerosols. It's a seemingly minor change, but it makes a difference to the climate. “More methane means less hydroxyl, less sulfate, and more warming,” Shindell explained.

His team’s modeling experiment, one of the first to rigorously quantify the impact of gas-aerosol interactions on both climate and air quality, showed that increases in global methane emissions have caused a 26 percent decrease in hydroxyl and an 11 percent decrease in the number concentration of sulfate particles. Reducing sulfate unmasks methane’s warming by 20 to 40 percent over current estimates, but also helps reduce negative health effects from sulfate aerosols.

In comparison, the model calculated that global carbon monoxide emissions have caused a 13 percent reduction in hydroxyl and 9 percent reduction in sulfate aerosols.

“Our calculations suggest that all the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases together have a net impact that rivals the warming caused by carbon dioxide."

For Russia, a thawing permafrost is one of the most perilous consequences of global warming. There is no other world dominion where 62 percent of territory would be taken up by frozen land.

Accordingly, no other country on the planet is as active in setting up in its cryolithozone such a broad range of bustling economic activities. Forty-six cities and towns with a combined population of over seven million are located north of the Russian Arctic Circle. The vast expanse of the Russian Arctic is home to the world’s largest metal works, ore and coal mines, mineral processing plants, nuclear test ranges, radioactive waste repositories, to name just a few industries. Nearly 93 percent of all global natural gas output is produced in these latitudes as well as 75 percent of oil, which, converted into values of economic potential, yields up to 70 percent of the country’s annual export trade.

“In Western Siberia, according to statistical data available, around 35,000 equipment failures and accidents take place every year involving oil and gas pipelines,” the State Hydrological Institute’s Anisimov says. “If the current trend continues – and this is well indicated by theoretical climate prognoses – dangerous geo-ecological consequences of permafrost degradation will be unavoidable. Mass-scale deformation of buildings and structures that were built without consideration for climate warming will then become possible as a result.”

This is perhaps the worst natural calamity Russia has yet had to face.

In the past 50 years, considerable warming has been observed in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Understanding whether these measured changes are a local phenomenon or part of a significant regional trend is important for interpreting observations, validating climate models, and predicting future climate change. To investigate the extent of the warming, Thomas et al. present a new 150-year oxygen isotope record from an ice core drilled in the data-sparse southwestern Antarctic Peninsula. The new record shows about 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in surface temperature since the 1950s. The record correlates well with satellite-derived temperature reconstructions and records from other locations showing similar warming trends. The authors conclude that the warming in the past 50 years has been a regional trend, not a local phenomenon, and has been part of a statistically significant 100-year warming trend that began around 1900. Furthermore, they use climate models to show that the observed warming trend is outside the expected range of natural variability and is therefore probably the result of human influence.

GRASS has become established in Antarctica for the first time,
showing the continent is warming to temperatures unseen for
10,000 years.
Scientists have reported that broad areas of grass are now forming
turf where there were once ice-sheets and glaciers.
Tufts have previously grown on patches of Antarctica in summer,
but the scientists have now observed bigger areas surviving winter
and spreading in the summer months. Some fear the change
portends a much wider melting of the ice-cap that formed at least
20m years ago.

Pete Convey, an ecologist conducting research with the British
Antarctic Survey (BAS), said: “Grass has taken a grip. There are
very rapid changes going on in the Antarctic’s climate, allowing
grass to colonise areas that would once have been far too cold.”

Convey said Antarctic hair grass and another species called
pearlwort were the only complex plants capable of surviving on the
Antarctic mainland. He said: “In the past they were at the limit of
their range. They used to appear sporadically with one or a few
plants growing in sheltered north-facing areas where birds or the
wind dropped the seeds but they never did very well.
“What we are seeing now is dense swards or lawns forming and
both plants growing much further south than ever before. It is quite
remarkable.”

Research by Convey and his colleagues suggests one of the main
reasons for the change is that the rising temperatures have
brought forward the start of the Antarctic spring and delayed the
onset of autumn, enabling the grass to produce mature seed which
germinates and becomes established.

King and his colleagues believe such trends could continue,
possibly even raising winter temperatures on the peninsula from
their past average of -10C to near freezing. Eventually this could
give the peninsula a climate comparable to that of Scandinavia.

link

Does anyone know the legality of staking out a plot in Antarctica? Since there is no government, can you just move in and claim it? Can goats eat these grasses?

Just day dreaming, but it would be interesting to know.

Fascinating stuff!

As far as I know Antarctica is still claimed by multiple countries, Chile, Argentina, USA, Norway, Russia and the UK as I recall.

I know that babies born on the continent have been proclaimed citizens by Argentina a few years back.

The Antarctic Treaty was drafted largely as a way to avoid a clash of sovereignty among seven states, some of whose claims to territory in Antarctica overlap, in particular Chile, Argentina and the United Kingdom.

The claims were highlighted in 1958 which the United Nations proclaimed as International Geophysical Year, and there were at least twelve national expeditions that year in the Antarctic.

It is believed that the Antarctic continent once existed in close juxtaposition with Australia, South Africa, South America, and India in an original super-continent, Gondwanaland. Since the latter areas are all well endowed with minerals, it is assumed that the Antarctic must be likewise. While extraction would be difficult and expensive, the price of oil and minerals could make extraction financially worthwhile.

The success of the 1958 International Geophyical Year encouraged hopes of making the spirit of scientific co-operation more permanent, leading to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty among twelve states — those with sovereignty claims and five additional states which had participated in the expeditions of the Geophysical Year.

The Treaty has four notable components.

First, it established the world’s first nuclearfree zone, preventing the placing of nuclear weapons and nuclear waste. The Treaty did not rule out the civilian use of nuclear energy, and so the USA installed a nuclear power plant at its McMurdo Base. It failed to live up to its expectations and was decommissioned in 1978. Since it was decommissioned, it then became radioactive waste, and the material had to be shipped back to the USA at almost the same cost as originally building it.

Second, the Antarctic Treaty has frozen land claims, such as those of the UK, Chile and Argentina which overlap. The USA and the Soviet Union by contrast did not make any claims but did not recognise the claims of others. The Treaty froze the issue. No new claims were to be made but the current claimants were not forced to give up what they already claimed. Meanwhile, for those states that did not recognise any of the claims, the Treaty permitted them to continue their policy of non-recognition.

Third, the Treaty guaranteed international co-operation in scientific investigation. There is an exchange of information regarding scientific programs, as well as co-operation among scientific personnel.

Finally, there is a strong international mechanism to supervise the implementation of the Treaty. This international mechanism also contains an obligation among the nations concerned to settle their disputes peacefully by negotiation and inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement or other peaceful means of their own choice.

National Geographic special series on the 50th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty by Paul Berkman

Part One: Antarctic Treaty at 50, a beacon for joint management of Earth

Part Two: How Antarctica facilitated science as a tool of diplomacy

Part Three: Antarctic Treaty lessons have enduring value for humankind

GRASS has become established in Antarctica for the first time,
showing the continent is warming to temperatures unseen for
10,000 years.
Scientists have reported that broad areas of grass are now forming
turf where there were once ice-sheets and glaciers.
Tufts have previously grown on patches of Antarctica in summer,
but the scientists have now observed bigger areas surviving winter
and spreading in the summer months. Some fear the change
portends a much wider melting of the ice-cap that formed at least
20m years ago...
<snip>
Eventually this could
give the peninsula a climate comparable to that of Scandinavia.