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CarlosFerreira
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:18 pm |
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Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 744 Location: Canterbury, UK
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GoghGoner
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:58 pm |
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Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 725
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I put 3. The winter temperatures in the Arctic seem to be higher so far this winter. I imagine ocean currents also play into this but I don't know anything about them.
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Lore
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:11 pm |
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Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1657 Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet
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vtsnowedin wrote: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/panctemps.php This chart for Anchorage AK is a good way to look at weather data. You can visualy see what is normal and what is historic record at the same time. A lot more useful then a chart generated from 1880 ships data that has been plotted down to 0.1 deg. C. Funny I didn't think they had digital thermometers in 1880. 
What makes you think they wern't able to record temperatures back in 1880 with a reasonable degree of precision? If you're suspect, then go ahead and just look at the last 50 years from the graph on The Global map of surface temperature anomalies at GISS. The increase is even more dramatic.
An annual temperature map of Anchorage may tell you something about weather in that area, but what we're talking about here is global climate change.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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vtsnowedin
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:00 am |
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Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 1532
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Lore wrote: vtsnowedin wrote: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/panctemps.php This chart for Anchorage AK is a good way to look at weather data. You can visualy see what is normal and what is historic record at the same time. A lot more useful then a chart generated from 1880 ships data that has been plotted down to 0.1 deg. C. Funny I didn't think they had digital thermometers in 1880.  What makes you think they wern't able to record temperatures back in 1880 with a reasonable degree of precision? If you're suspect, then go ahead and just look at the last 50 years from the graph on The Global map of surface temperature anomalies at GISS. The increase is even more dramatic. An annual temperature map of Anchorage may tell you something about weather in that area, but what we're talking about here is global climate change.
You would have to define "reasonable degree of precision". Some one sticking a glass mercury thermometer in a bucket of sea water pulled up over the side of a ship would have read the temp to the nearest degree which was all that was required or possible for what they were doing with the data and the equipment available. All these charts and graphs that combine satellite data with older ship, buoy and land station data have had to clean up and adjust the data from these older sources to get a fit. Taking into account that ships stick to the shipping lanes and leave large areas of ocean unsampled and sample rates go down in bad weather etc. has to be done but how well its done is the weak link in these graphs. The researcher will give more weight to data that seems to fit and disregard or diminish data that does not but what they precieve as a fit comes with their own preconcieved bias built in. To then take the data that remains and show a temperature rise of .7deg.C with a confidence factor of +/- .4 degrees is quite a stretch of credibility.
That chart from Anchorage was just a example of a good way to show the data. The fact that it shows Anchorage was just a coincidence. It proves nothing but I didn't say that it did.
This story was interesting. I saw it on Drudge.
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834
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Lore
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:50 pm |
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Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1657 Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet
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vtsnowedin wrote: The researcher will give more weight to data that seems to fit and disregard or diminish data that does not but what they precieve as a fit comes with their own preconcieved bias built in. To then take the data that remains and show a temperature rise of .7deg.C with a confidence factor of +/- .4 degrees is quite a stretch of credibility.
Suggesting there is a bias is just another red herring. It's a typical tactic by denialists concluding that when you don't agree with the results that it just must be someone who prejudiced the science. Of course every scientist in the world just went ahead and accepted " the researcher's" data without further analysis. Denialist blogs on DailyTech are a prime example of the kind of sites that add to all the misdirection and cherry picked outliers. Thin annual sea ice has little to do with the amount of total world wide ice mass loss. Quote: Alaska's low-lying ice fields are disappearing at two to three times the rate of a decade ago, according to aerial surveys by researchers at the University of Alaska. Since 2000, Greenland alone has lost 355.4 square miles of ice -- an area 10 times the size of Manhattan -- Ohio State University researchers reported. Using data from two NASA satellites, they determined that Greenland's 32 largest glaciers lost three times as much ice last year as the year before. "I wouldn't run for the hills," says glacier analyst Eric Rignot at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "But it might be time to start walking." :LINK
Very interesting... don't you think?
Like I said, if you don't like the data from 1880 we can discuss the last 50 or 30 years.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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vtsnowedin
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:04 am |
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Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 1532
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Lore wrote: [ Quote: Alaska's low-lying ice fields are disappearing at two to three times the rate of a decade ago, according to aerial surveys by researchers at the University of Alaska. Since 2000, Greenland alone has lost 355.4 square miles of ice -- an area 10 times the size of Manhattan -- Ohio State University researchers reported. Using data from two NASA satellites, they determined that Greenland's 32 largest glaciers lost three times as much ice last year as the year before. "I wouldn't run for the hills," says glacier analyst Eric Rignot at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "But it might be time to start walking." :LINKLike I said, if you don't like the data from 1880 we can discuss the last 50 or 30 years.
355.4 square miles off of the total area of Greenland. Whats that amount to? Maybe a line one inch wide around the perimeter of Greenlands coastline? Manhatten is a tiny place in the world scale of things.
Debating the last fifty years has been done often with both side refusing to admit that the other may have a valid point or a working brain. I'd rather watch this years ice season as it develops and see what can be learned from it. Looking for current weather data on the Russian side of the arctic I found this today. I'm not sure of their conclusions about the shrinking ice cap but the weather data seems up to date and all in one place.
http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm
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Lore
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:01 pm |
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Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1657 Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet
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vtsnowedin wrote: 355.4 square miles off of the total area of Greenland. Whats that amount to? Maybe a line one inch wide around the perimeter of Greenlands coastline? Manhatten is a tiny place in the world scale of things. Debating the last fifty years has been done often with both side refusing to admit that the other may have a valid point or a working brain. I'd rather watch this years ice season as it develops and see what can be learned from it. Looking for current weather data on the Russian side of the arctic I found this today. I'm not sure of their conclusions about the shrinking ice cap but the weather data seems up to date and all in one place. http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm
The significance is the rate at which ice melt is happening, more so then the current amount. Which is the same concern about climate change in general; a fact that many oponents of AGW seem to miss.
Once again, nice weather report.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Tanada
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 4:16 pm |
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Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5319 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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Take a look at This Graphand you will see that Arctic freeze up has slowed to a lower than average rate and as of the start of February it is about 300,000 km^2 lower than last year and 1 Mkm^2 lower than the baseline average. Because of the normal melt in Antarctica and the below normal freeze up in the Arctic the world sea ice level is once again below the long term trend as well.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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vtsnowedin
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 4:40 am |
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Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 1532
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Tanada
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 1:20 pm |
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Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5319 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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Check out the new graph up here from http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png The dotted line is the sea ice area from the winter of 06/07 which preceded the lowest summer sea ice yet recorded. If this graph from NSIDC is accurate at all we might see a new record this summer which will put the old one to shame, years ahead of schedual.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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Newfie
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 2:17 pm |
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 875 Location: US East Coast
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Tanda, A couple of weeks ago the trend-line dropped just as now, though not as far. After a few days they corrected it to back a bit so it showed a bit less loss. Lets hope that this too gets corrected, although it would make perfect sense to me if it did not - due to Global Dimming. I presume you watch the Canadian Ice Service as well? I only watch the Eastern Newfoundland waters as that is where my interest is. Anyway, they are due to publish their next 30-day forecast on Feb. 18. Should be interesting. http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCa ... 1&Lang=eng
_________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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kiwichick
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 5:08 pm |
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Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 455 Location: berrigan NSW OZ
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wow newfie amazing graphs
look esp. at the eastern and western arctic!!!
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vtsnowedin
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:35 pm |
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Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 1532
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kiwichick wrote: wow newfie amazing graphs
look esp. at the eastern and western arctic!!!  Before you get your panties in a bunch you should note that those graphs were for mid October. After that noboby cares about ice conditions in these areas except the polar bears. They are frozen solid now , just like most years.
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kiwichick
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 9:22 pm |
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Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 455 Location: berrigan NSW OZ
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arctic and antarctica are both below the long term at the moment
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vtsnowedin
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Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009 Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 6:31 am |
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Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 1532
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kiwichick wrote: arctic and antarctica are both below the long term at the moment  Just where is this area of open water in the arctic that is normally iced over this time of year?
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