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Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 1130 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ... 76  Next

How much arctic sea ice September 15, 2009?
Poll ended at Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:42 am
0 Mkm 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
1 Mkm 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
2 Mkm 10%  10%  [ 3 ]
3 Mkm 28%  28%  [ 8 ]
4 Mkm 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
5 Mkm 14%  14%  [ 4 ]
6 Mkm 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
7 Mkm 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
8 Mkm 17%  17%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 29
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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:04 pm 
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Ive guessed 3million ^2 km, but its a pretty wild guess. With the PDO switching to a negative cycle, this may change the currents and weather patterns that have helped set up the current melt back but with a small increase due in solar irradiance over the coming years and the ice albedo affect already likely to be warming the arctic ocean Id have to guess that the melting is likely to continue.

Changes in the earths albido and the potential to release huge amounts of methane over the coming decades is such a realistic scenario and its outcome is so damned ugly.


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:11 pm 
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AAA wrote:
There has also been over 60 glacial advances and retreats over the last 2 million years.


your point being?

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:19 pm 
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Bas wrote:
AAA wrote:
There has also been over 60 glacial advances and retreats over the last 2 million years.


your point being?


What makes it different this time besides us tracking it?


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:27 pm 
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It is a fact that during the Eocene Epoch the earth was so warm that trees grew in Antarctica and the Artic.

That is what I would call global warming BUT it then cooled.


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:29 pm 
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AAA wrote:

What makes it different this time besides us tracking it?


a. It's changing much faster than in the past due to human emitted greenhouse gases.

b. We have an overpopulated planet with nowhere to run.

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:30 pm 
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AAA wrote:
It is a fact that during the Eocene Epoch the earth was so warm that trees grew in Antarctica and the Artic.

That is what I would call global warming BUT it then cooled.


It is a fact that while it happened, there was no human civilization.

What are the consequences of it happening within our life time, for human civilization? Especially considering it will be happening very quickly, as a result of human activity changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere?

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:49 pm 
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Bas wrote:
AAA wrote:

What makes it different this time besides us tracking it?


a. It's changing much faster than in the past due to human emitted greenhouse gases.



As you probably know polar ice is a rare occurance in geological time and takes place less than 10% of geological history. Icecaps develop for a short time between interglacials and then melt.

This time is no different.

Bas wrote:

b. We have an overpopulated planet with nowhere to run.


This brings up a whole lot of other issues and I agree totally.


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:21 pm 
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AAA wrote:
As you probably know polar ice is a rare occurance in geological time and takes place less than 10% of geological history. Icecaps develop for a short time between interglacials and then melt.

This time is no different.


You keep ignoring the fact that

a) this time is much more serious
b) there are implications, and we're trying to discuss it.

Other than that, you agree it's happening. What's your vote in the poll?

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:50 pm 
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This thread is just one of many that could be created when discussing the effects of climate change. We could just as easily start one discussing warming oceans, glacial melt, drought, floods, storms, and so on; all related to a warming planet.

The fact that all the above and more has already happened numerous times on this planet before makes little difference to the human population that depends on a stable climate to exist as it now does.

The rapid rate of human induced change to the climate threatens any chance to adapt and brings into question a repeat of yet another major extinction event. Which by the way has also happened several times before.

It would however, as said here many times, been nice to have another 30,000 years or so for the human race to try and get its sh-t together.

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:17 am 
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Lore wrote:
The fact that all the above and more has already happened numerous times on this planet before makes little difference to the human population that depends on a stable climate to exist as it now does.


This is untrue.

Why do we "depend on it?"

15,000 years ago there was an ice age. Did the people then "depend" on it continuing?

What are you depending on?

Is the argument that some people in Florida will get displaced?

Ok, move them to Greenland.

To say that a few degree rise over 100 years is a big problem for the two legged rats of the world that infest virtually every habitable cranny is fearmongering nonsense.

Just another reason why the Voodoo Cult of Climate Change is losing members.


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 1:27 am 
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Roger Pielke Sr.


Quote:
The war on carbon - Arguments of 2009: Can Copenhagen save the planet?

An excerpt reads,

“The stakes at Copenhagen could not be much higher. Global surface temperatures have risen by a tolerable three quarters of a degree celsius over the past century, but the rate of increase is accelerating. The Kyoto Protocol has had negligible impact on greenhouse gas emissions, and projections for the mean global temperature rise in the next century range from 1.1 to 6.4 degrees. Whether fast or very fast, the Earth is heating up.

There will be continued argument about the science of climate change over the next 12 months, but not, except on the conspiratorial fringe, about the threat. Climate change is real and worsening, and there is an overwhelming likelihood that much of it is man-made.â€

This is a erroneous report on the climate system! The rate of increase is NOT accelerating. There is absolutely no question that global warming has stopped for at least 4 years (using upper ocean data) ; e.g see

Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-334.pdf

and over 7 years using lower tropospheric data; e.g. see

Figure 7 TLT in http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html.

With respect to the surface temperature trends [which have a warm bias in any case, as we have documented in our peer review papers; e.g. see], a good set of analyses on this subject has been posted over the last few years at http://rankexploits.com/musings/ [you should scroll back over the last several months to view; it is an excellent comparison with model predictions]. As discussed on that website, even with the warm biased global average surface temperature trends, the models have over-predicted warming. The GISS data itself even shows recent cooling in the ocean sea surface temperatures [see their figure for Monthly-Mean Global Sea Surface Temperature; http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ where it has cooled since 2002.

The writers of the Times article, and other journalists who write similar misinformation, damage the likelihood of responsible environmental actions as a result of their overstatement and erroneous communication to the public and policymakers of climate science.


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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:13 am 
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Schmuto wrote:
This is untrue.

Why do we "depend on it?"

15,000 years ago there was an ice age. Did the people then "depend" on it continuing?

What are you depending on?

Is the argument that some people in Florida will get displaced?

Ok, move them to Greenland.

To say that a few degree rise over 100 years is a big problem for the two legged rats of the world that infest virtually every habitable cranny is fearmongering nonsense.

Just another reason why the Voodoo Cult of Climate Change is losing members.


Yes, people depended on a stable climate 15,000 years ago, just as they do now. Probably even more so, since they wern't nearly as mobile. Let's also not forget we now have a world filled with nearly 7 billion people and no where to go.

Dislocation of populations due to rapid climate change is a growing concern. World governments are already studying contingency plans.

A host of the worlds people at Greenlands door step would bring about a whole new set of problems. I'm sure the current inhabitants would welcome eveyone with open arms to live on their rock and stone island.

Time to get a clue!

Actually there is world wide net gain of concern over climate change and saying otherwise doesn't make it so.

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:19 am 
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Schmuto wrote:
Why do we "depend on it?"


Civilization depends on a stable climate for agriculture. Civilization arose during a period of relative climate stability with mild temperatures. Such anomalies as the "Little Ice Age" brought widespread hardship to civilized people. Collapse of various civilizations coincide with unstable climate events, such as cold periods and droughts.

Homo sapiens is clearly capable of surviving wide climate variables. Civilization is not.

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:25 am 
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virgincrude wrote:
Roger Pielke Sr.


Quote:
The war on carbon - Arguments of 2009: Can Copenhagen save the planet?

An excerpt reads,

“The stakes at Copenhagen could not be much higher. Global surface temperatures have risen by a tolerable three quarters of a degree celsius over the past century, but the rate of increase is accelerating. The Kyoto Protocol has had negligible impact on greenhouse gas emissions, and projections for the mean global temperature rise in the next century range from 1.1 to 6.4 degrees. Whether fast or very fast, the Earth is heating up.

There will be continued argument about the science of climate change over the next 12 months, but not, except on the conspiratorial fringe, about the threat. Climate change is real and worsening, and there is an overwhelming likelihood that much of it is man-made.â€

This is a erroneous report on the climate system! The rate of increase is NOT accelerating. There is absolutely no question that global warming has stopped for at least 4 years (using upper ocean data) ; e.g see

Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-334.pdf

and over 7 years using lower tropospheric data; e.g. see

Figure 7 TLT in http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html.

With respect to the surface temperature trends [which have a warm bias in any case, as we have documented in our peer review papers; e.g. see], a good set of analyses on this subject has been posted over the last few years at http://rankexploits.com/musings/ [you should scroll back over the last several months to view; it is an excellent comparison with model predictions]. As discussed on that website, even with the warm biased global average surface temperature trends, the models have over-predicted warming. The GISS data itself even shows recent cooling in the ocean sea surface temperatures [see their figure for Monthly-Mean Global Sea Surface Temperature; http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ where it has cooled since 2002.

The writers of the Times article, and other journalists who write similar misinformation, damage the likelihood of responsible environmental actions as a result of their overstatement and erroneous communication to the public and policymakers of climate science.


More trash talk from Pielke using outlier data points.


Quote:
In the GISTEMP, HadCRU and NCDC analyses D-N 2008 were at 0.43, 0.42 and 0.47ºC above the 1951-1980 baseline (respectively). In GISTEMP both October and November came in quite warm (0.58ºC), the former edging up slightly on last month's estimate as more data came in. This puts 2008 at #9 or #8 in the yearly rankings, but given the uncertainty in the estimates, the real ranking could be anywhere between #6 or #15. More robustly, the most recent 5-year averages are all significantly higher than any in the last century. The last decade is by far the warmest decade globally in the record. These big picture conclusions are the same if you look at any of the data sets, though the actual numbers are slightly different (relating principally to the data extrapolation - particularly in the Arctic). LINK

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 Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss in Arctic 2009
New postPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:45 am 
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Lore: "More trash talk from Pielke using outlier data points."

Oh yes, obviously. Whatever you do, don't listen to those silly scientists who disagree with the Co2 agenda. Just stick to your own propaganda sites. 8O

Coolest year since 2000

Go on, get yer nickers in a twist. Earth's climate changes, it goes through warm and cool periods, man made Co2 IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR driving 'climate change'.


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