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View unanswered posts | View active topics
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ALBY
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Post subject: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 8:46 am |
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 513 Location: Baltimore County, Md
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http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html
When asked about what this will mean to the average person on the street, Casey was firm. “The last time this particular cycle regenerated was over 200 years ago. I call it the “Bi-Centennial Cycle” solar cycle. It took place between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum, a period of extreme cold that resulted in what historian John D. Post called the ‘last great subsistence crisis.’ With that cold came massive crops losses, food riots, famine and disease. I believe this next climate change will be much stronger and has the potential to once more cause widespread crop losses globally with the resultant ill effects. The key difference for this next Bi-Centennial Cycle’s impact versus the last is that we will have over 8 billion mouths to feed in the next coldest years where as we had only 1 billion the last time. Among other effects like social and economic disruption, we are facing the real prospect of the ‘perfect storm of global food shortages’ in the next climate change. In answer to the question, everyone on the street will be affected.”
and the coup de grace
Casey was asked whether the government has been notified. “Yes, as soon as my research revealed these solar cycles and the prediction of the coming cold era with the next climate change, I notified all the key offices in the Bush administration including both parties in the Senate and House science committees as well as most of the nation’s media outlets. Unfortunately, because of the intensity of coverage of the UN IPCC and man made global warming during 2007, the full story about climate change is very slow in getting told.
**zips up flamesuit**
Ok, i guess these guys are just shills for exxon or something, but it just seems logical to my little brain that the temperature on our planet is largely dependent on the output of our star.
You may now scourge the heretic/denialist. ![5grouphug [smilie=5grouphug.gif]](./images/smilies/5grouphug.gif)
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Bas
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:00 am |
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Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 4108 Location: over here
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the effects of the eruption of krakatau which happened around the same time seem to be much more well documented:
Quote: The 1883 eruption ejected more than 25 cubic kilometres of rock, ash, and pumice [2], and generated the loudest sound historically reported: the cataclysmic explosion was distinctly heard as far away as Perth in Australia approx. 1,930 miles (3,110 km), and the island of Rodrigues near Mauritius approx. 3,000 miles (5,000 km).
----
In the year following the eruption, average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888. The eruption injected an unusually large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas high into the stratosphere which was subsequently transported by high-level winds all over the planet. This led to a global increase in sulfurous acid (H2SO3) concentration in high-level cirrus clouds. The resulting increase in cloud reflectivity (or albedo) would reflect more incoming light from the sun than usual, and cool the entire planet until the suspended sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation.[8]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa#Global_climate
seems strange to me that they would have noticed that relatively small temperature change for a few years, but we're only finding out about a bigger longer lasting one that happened after krakatau now.....
_________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
- Abraham Lincoln
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Snowstorm
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:17 am |
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Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 64 Location: Missouri
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If this happens it may very well have a cooling influence, but it does not refute that the increasing greenhouse gases have a much stronger warming influence. If we're lucky, lower solar activity may slightly reduce global warming, but the addition of one cooling influence in no way eliminates all the anthropogenic warming trends.
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Bas
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:30 am |
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Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 4108 Location: over here
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John D post to which he refers:
Quote: The Year Without a Summer, also known as the Poverty Year, The Year There Was No Summer or Eighteen hundred and froze to death, was 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities destroyed crops in Northern Europe, the American Northeast and eastern Canada.[1][2] Historian John D. Post has called this "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world".[3] It appears to have been caused by a volcanic winter. Quote: It is now generally thought that the aberrations occurred because of the 5 April – 15 April 1815 volcanic eruptions of Mount Tambora[5][6] on the island of Sumbawa in the Dutch East Indies (modern-day Indonesia) which ejected immense amounts of volcanic dust into the upper atmosphere.
Other volcanoes were active during the same time frame:
La Soufriere on Saint Vincent in the Caribbean in 1812 Mayon in the Philippines in 1814 These other eruptions had already built up a substantial amount of atmospheric dust. As is common following a massive volcanic eruption, temperatures fell worldwide because less sunlight passed through the atmosphere.
Similar to "Global Dimming" produced by industrial exhaust fumes which has reduced sunlight reaching the earth (and been keeping the worst of global warming at bay thusfar)
_________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
- Abraham Lincoln
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ALBY
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:42 am |
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 513 Location: Baltimore County, Md
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Snowstorm wrote: If we're lucky, lower solar activity may slightly reduce global warming, but the addition of one cooling influence in no way eliminates all the anthropogenic warming trends.
IMO it opens up the question of just exactly what our response to GW should be.
Creating a market in carbon trading does not strike me as the appropriate response to a warming earth. Seems more likely to enrich the ruling class that led us into the mess in the first place.
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ALBY
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:52 am |
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 513 Location: Baltimore County, Md
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BTW, I'm a guy that fishes batteries out of the garbage and recylces every bit of plastic in my trash. I am not a proponent of needlessly belching carbon into the atmosphere. I kill and eat lots of my local critters, heat as much as I can with the silvacultural weeds I cut off my property and grow a big % of my own veggies.
I do what I can to tread lightly, because quite simply, its the right thing to do.
Any scheme that allows a powperplant in China to belch filthy coal smoke because some rich white guy sold some credits to some rich Chinese guy strikes me as being NOT the right thing to do.
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Lore
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:59 am |
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Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1427 Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet
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This John L. Casey seems to be operating on some kind of fringe science theory which he himself has coined and developed, The Theory of Relational Cycles of Solar Activity.
He alludes to the fact on his web site that it some how ties into NASA's "solar hibernation".
Quote: Further, the solar physics group at NASA has published their own verification of a coming major solar minimum, what the SSRC's calls a "solar hibernation." The link below shows NASA's confirmation of when the next major minimum will occur as well as many other solar information links. Though the SSRC and NASA differ on the exact start of the next solar minimum (Cycle 24 vs.cycle 25, respectively) both have separately concluded a major solar minimum is coming and that premliminary signs of the sun's activity have verifed the process has begun. Long Range Solar Forecast - NASAFirst off there is no clear cut relationship between solar activity and irradiance. The NASA link only refers to a decreasing magnetic and cosmic ray influence. Secondly, he gives no evidence in his theory that such a decrease in activity would be substantially worse then in the past. It seems like this is an individual who is the sole owner and operater of a pet project. Quote: John L. Casey
Director, Space and Science Research Center
Mr. Casey has accumulated over thirty years of professional experience spanning a wide variety of technologies, industries, and international endeavors, to include performing important services as a space policy advisor to the White House, and Congress. He has been a consultant to NASA Headquarters, and conducted satellite launch studies for the Department of Defense. His experience also includes being a former space shuttle engineer, military missile and computer systems officer, advanced rocketry and commercial space developer. He has an extensive executive management background in the start-up and financing of high technology companies. He has a BS degree in Physics and Mathematics and an MA degree in Management. He is active in his community in environmental and conservation activities and was past Chairman of GFSD, an international charity that provided aid to women and children in Iraq and Afghanistan.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Heineken
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:55 am |
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Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 6855 Location: Rural Virginia
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In my former role as an editor of Science magazine, I learned to recognize the "sound" of fringe science, particularly fringe science with political undertones (or overtones). Casey's declarations have all the familiar earmarks, particularly his absolutist language and his reticence regarding the countervailing forces of global warming.
_________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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Fishman
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:15 pm |
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Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1220 Location: Carolina de Norte
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The Russian have published somewhat similar data also.
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Lanthanide
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 3:17 pm |
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Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 159 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
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ALBY wrote: Any scheme that allows a powperplant in China to belch filthy coal smoke because some rich white guy sold some credits to some rich Chinese guy strikes me as being NOT the right thing to do.
Until environmental impacts are directly priced in $, they cannot be adequitely integrated into the market.
The idea of the carbon credits is at some point, there is a fixed number of credits available. Companies that plant trees or do other carbon sequestering activities will gain credits (that they can sell), and other companies that consume credits will buy them from other companies in the market. This in no way increases the carbon being released into the atmosphere, but simply accounts for it. It is even possible that some companies will hoard carbon credits (resulting in overall lower emissions into the atmosphere), although it remains to be seen if such a thing would be allowed (I suspect not, at least not in the long term of 5+ years).
Then, once this system is in place, and providing the countries of the world can some how agree (hah), the number of carbon credits is slowly reduced worldwide. This forces companies to reduce their emissions via new technologies that they otherwise have no incentive to implement, or to invest into carbon sequestering solutions (forests etc). So under such a scheme, carbon emissions would be reduced. Whether or not the system will even meet this potential is another matter of course.
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ALBY
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:05 pm |
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 513 Location: Baltimore County, Md
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Lanthanide wrote: Until environmental impacts are directly priced in $, they cannot be adequitely integrated into the market.
the very idea that you can put an economic value on the destruction caused by pollution strikes me as odd.
in any event, the market will determine the value of those credits, not the actual environmental impact. Like any market, it will be rigged and the top 1% will derive 99% of the benefit.
I hate it.
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shortonoil
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Post subject: MAJOR CLIMATE EVENT TO OCCUR Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:22 pm |
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Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 3053 Location: VA USA
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Quote: Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.
Today, Director of the SSRC, John Casey has reaffirmed earlier research he led that independently discovered the sun’s changes are the result of a family of cycles that bring about climate shifts from cold climate to warm and back again. “We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles re so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.”
As to what these changes are Casey says, “The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the “conveyor belt” essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a “solar hibernation,” the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.”
This is certainly going to complicate PO!!!!!
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Valdemar
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Post subject: Re: MAJOR CLIMATE EVENT TO OCCUR Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:58 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2007 12:00 am Posts: 355 Location: Cambs., UK
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It never rains but it pours...
Least the Sol isn't dying. Then we'd really be screwed.
_________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars." -Pinbacker, Sunshine
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Oil-Finder
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Post subject: Re: MAJOR CLIMATE EVENT TO OCCUR Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 6:20 pm |
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 631 Location: Seattle
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Pixie
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Post subject: Re: Global Coldening Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 6:23 pm |
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Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 334 Location: Oregon
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Bas wrote: the effects of the eruption of krakatau which happened around the same time seem to be much more well documented: Quote: The 1883 eruption ejected more than 25 cubic kilometres of rock, ash, and pumice [2], but we're only finding out about a bigger longer lasting one that happened after krakatau now.....
Bas, you're off by 100 years. Krakatao was 1883. This guy's talking about 1783. Plus, the even bigger volcano was around 1812, so corresponds to the cold period that is here being attributed to solar output.
_________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
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