Quite possibly GOM shipping will be impacted by developing weather this week:




http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=0

Can't find the pertinent threads so I understand a merge.

There is a nifty little spinning blob heading on a path that will recurve up the east coast.


oddly no one at NOAA wants to invest - igate this thing. Maybe the models are saying it has only small chance of developing but it already looks to be rotating and have an IR signature like a tropical storm.

So, the stearing does not leave out a Florida or New York storm. What does a big storm do to the situation regarding the economy? Can we handle a Katrina type event in Miami or New York?

A nice one is developing just off the west coast of Africa. This one will be worth watching....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

(for those few of you who still haven't 'favorited' this website.... )

Please welcome tropical storm Ana:

I may be filling up my gas drums next week.

The first hurricane is usually a trial run.

The B thru F's are the killers.

Exception Andrew. There's always an exception.

"Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.[2] Convection became more organized as upper-level outflow became better established.[7] An eye formed, and Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22 while located about 650 miles (1,050 km) eastsoutheast of Nassau, Bahamas.[2]

Six hours after becoming a hurricane, Andrewhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Andrew was predicted to make landfall near Jupiter, Florida with winds of 105 miles per hour (169 km/h).[8]"

I am very surprised how long it took for this to get going and now I am also shocked that the gun is pointed right at GOM. I was expecting the stearing to take things up the east coast until later in September. I would not count Ana out yet for making it into the gulf as a strong tropical storm and then hitting somewhere as a strong cat 1. Bill will probably be a monster and hit Florida or the Carolina's and right behind Bill is another system that is expected to develop. It might be a story we have heard all too often here in the coming weeks. I just wonder how a gas spike to $3.50 will affect the 'mood' in the country and in the town hall meetings where Obama is linking total control of the healthcare system by the government to economic recovery. Apparently nobody has shouted him down yet...that seem a little odd to anyone?

I'm still thinking this is New York's year, maybe in October.

Most years the first named storm is an early-season one, in June or July, and those do tend to be less intense, but this year, as well as 1992, the year of Andrew, there were no early season storms, we're getting into the heart of hurricane season, the majority are between mid August and mid October, so I don't see any reason why Ana couldn't be a killer, still of course too early to know for sure. If Ana does get intense it may impede Bill's strengthening if Bill keeps following in it's path because hurricanes stir up the waters and leave colder surface temperatures in their wake.

A very warm year down by the GOM and no other tropical stroms to absorb the waters heat. Im no expert and open to correction but I think this may mean less storms but the potential for a bit of a bugger.

The Atlantic is lining them up.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

CNN Breaking News Article

Hopefully this storm will bring some much needed rain to the SE and Eastern US, i.e, South Carolina (where Roy and his neighbors need some rain), and might help out Georgia and Lake Lanier. ??? Isn't Thunderhorse somewhere near this storm?

This can't but "help": Global ocean surface temperature breaks 1998 record

The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880.

Conoco Phillips states:




http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/newsro ... index.aspx

the models changed overnite. This looks like 1968(8 named no majors). What few storms we have get turned into florida and up the seaboard. unless storm starts in the bay of Campeche

Of course the hottest water ever means all bets are off.
we have (8named

I don't believe the guidance envelope on this one at all. it is clearly heading barely wnw and that will take it over the lesser antilles and then onto an (upper?) east coast landfall. All we can do is hope that it loses some steam before it gets there. Heaven forbid it should jog south through the caribbean and into the GOM.