I don't know how up to date it is.

Again disclaimer not a professional forecaster. But I have watched these things for many years and I do understand the basics of moedling and the atmoshpere from a scientific perspective. I do not think the center they have for Dolly is correct. Your point is not lost on me, I think (???) it could go through the straights and hit central Texas or even curve further north into Houston. The problem is that none of this stuff happens in a political vacuum. Everyone is well aware of the risk of predicting wrongly and rightly at this sensitive moment in American history. We all say NOAA is just abou thte science, then let's admit that NOAA is not exactly right very often. Andrew remains one of the greatest wrong forecasts of all time, the rapid intensification fo Rita and Katrina also were not expected. People should be sober and prepared, forecasts and models are educated predictions they are not prophecies.

That position for the center is nowhere close it is already 100 miles to the north of that and all the stength of the storm is already into the straights.

Thank you!

INDEED!

The current more northerly position is even clearer via this image:

Have you also noticed the refuse from Christobol hanging around off Florida?

That lower left blob seems to be what they are calling center and I think the storm itself has yet to decide on that. Certainly in time lapse the lower left blob does not seem to be a center of rotation to me.

Let' pray they are right and this is a non-event. But even with that we have our forth named storm of the year and another impressive tropical low coming off Africa. It is going to be an interesting summer. The hurricane tax on gas might be in force thie year.

Maybe more Northeast 75 miles or so. However it is very unlikely that something so disorganized will reach Cat4 or 5 in the Gulf, that would be uber-intensification.

1. does anyone know how often the projections are updated?

2. Does anyone know the forecast for that high altitude wind sheer that sometimes (like all last season) disrupts storm formation (or where we can check on our own to find out that kind of information)?

link This is usually a good place, they are often quicker to analyze tings than weather.com and there is a forum where some of the important questions get answered. As with all such there are fear mongers and people who are in denial.

As for Dolly the word I heard is that shear conditions are expected to be favorable for development but that current path projections do not allow enough time for organization and strengthening beyond cat 1. The problem is the models are not perfect and there is a bias at times in the way the weather community handles some of these things. The important thing is that right now it is not certain this thing won't find Galveston. At least the weather channel guy told everyone from LA to Northern Mexico to be ready. Within a day or two that risk will dissipate and we will know much better where it is heading and if it has a chance of being major.

Dolly is a perfect example of the lifecycle of some of these storms. We have been watching it since it came off of Africa and it almost died a couple times, but chance favored it and here we are with a first storm of the year in the Gulf. The shear conditions this year do not seem likely to produce the shield effect they did last year. There is a fine line at times between appropriate caution and unreasoning fear. Better safe than sorry.

NOAA dont even have it making Cat 1: link Storm in a teacup. Yawn.

We might as well start documenting and see.
note: NOAA 07/20/08 2:37 PM Dolly will not reach Category 1 status.
We can revisist that Friday and see where we are at.

Nope. It's not a hurricane and traversing Yucatan will take the sting out of it.

Well someone thinks it's got potential. Oil just umped $1.50 in the last 13 minutes.