2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season (merged) Archived

Homesteader · **Posted:** Wed Jul 16, 2008 3:44 pm

Regarding #2 in TheDude's post above:
"2. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION... DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME."

joewp · **Posted:** Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:30 am

Invest 94 is starting to get interesting again

Quote:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TODAY.

eastbay · **Posted:** Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:58 pm

Yes it is. Look at this video loop and it's fairly clear we have a storm brewing just south of Hispaniola. It appears ready to thread the needle too and move right into the GOM.

Homesteader · **Posted:** Fri Jul 18, 2008 5:56 pm

It is starting to knock on the door a little harder. Trajectory looks to go right by the Caymans and into the GOM: "2. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE."

f2tornado · **Joined:** Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 50

It's model fantasy land but the 00 UTC GFDL model puts a 135 kt hurricane into Galveston in 5 days. Model consensus is calling for a double shot; one in the Yucatan with the other in South Texas. Bears watching closely given the limited time to track this fast moving system. Some GoMex oil and gas infrastructure may have to be evacuated within the next 72 hours should the guidance envelope come close to verifying. People on land won't have a whole lot of time to prep either.

JJ · **Joined:** Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 1168

dang, just looked at storm2k, they do have a model run of a cat five hitting houston....next week may get interesting!

Forney2008 · **Posted:** Sat Jul 19, 2008 10:09 pm

I wonder if the 7th night- time convection fire up will do it tonight for the disturbance in the Caribbean. Wind Shear is projected to fall, and waters are mighty warm and have deep concentrations of heat potential for any storm that passes by to work with.

Potential GOM hurricane threat

The computer models only shifted south because they saw the storm in a weaker state today and thus would tend to head on a more westerly route, whereas if this storm finally gets it's act together, it will feel more tugs poleward. That would lead to an interesting situation to say the least as far as a GOM hurricane barreling down. This could cause crude prices to soar again, and reverse the stock market rally last week in a hurry. Just my thoughts for now.

Heat Potential

Peleg · **Joined:** Tue May 20, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 239

Nobody paying attention to Dolly yet eh? Get ready. They are modeling to go further south and west than it may actually go, or that it looks to go. I always blush when I see the overly optimistic forecasts that surround any landfall in the US. Until there is no doubt every model and forcast seems to conspire to say 'No worries, keep shopping.' We really want to protect against panic in this country, unfortunately it does'nt help.

Here is the big if: if Dolly strengthens and takes a northeast jog we could have a 'surprise' major hurricane in the gulf by Wednesday. If that fear hits the markets tonight oil will jump $5- $10 tomorrow and then as the assessments and reality roll through new records are in sight.

[disclaimer: forward looking statements are speculative]

TonisD · **Posted:** Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:25 am

Dolly is exploding like crazy for the past hour and it seems that Texas has a bullseye on it.

Keep your eyes open for this, we will know everything on 4-5 days.

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

Looks like it should pass just north of Cantarell. Anybody have thoughts about how it might be impacted? Rig evacuations?

Ludi · **Posted:** Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:38 am

I'm especially interested in any storm that might bring us rain here in Central Texas!

<<<<shriveling up

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

Looks like the models all have Dolly going into northern Mexico, but Central Texas isn't outside the sphere of possibility by the end of the week.

TonisD · **Posted:** Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:59 am

smallpoxgirl wrote:

Looks like the models all have Dolly going into northern Mexico, but Central Texas isn't outside the sphere of possibility by the end of the week.

The models are all obsolete as Dolly shot up its strength before she hit the area used for modeling in the first place. We need to get new runs to see what could happen.

Ludi · **Posted:** Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:01 am

Can someone post the various models/predictions of the possible tracks for Dolly? Thanks.

killJOY · **Posted:** Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:05 am

Oil Drum has a good thread going about it: link

2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season (merged) Archived

Who is online