Cape Verde systems seldom turn into anything serious on this side of the Atlantic.

Not that it can't happen, but it's very rare.

I say it stays south, cuts north of Cuba, south of Florida, turns some and hits along the Texas coast. Damage estimated in the 100's of billions.

I have no idea. I do think that its still too early to worry. If this was early August, then i might get wet.

More immediate than the Cape Verde storm, models are starting to pick up on a disturbance north of Barbados presently (invest 93).

If it picks up any steam at all before the bell for the three-day-weekend, well, it doesn't help, that's for sure....

If this thing holds up until the end of trading tomorrow and stays on this projected path going into a 3 day break its $150 oil

Projected path

Loop

Weather underground doesn't see a signficant development for 93 in the next few days, but if develops more Friday, I understand electronic trading will continue on July 4 and Sunday evening.
Wather Underground projection

Although this system is scheduled as a TS later today, it is forecast to end up central Atlantic. Emily (2005) was the last Cape Verde in mid-July to end in the GOM. Dean, a Cape Verde, came through mid-to-late August last year.

The only thing that makes this storm very interesting is that it is developing where it is. Anything brewing up this early in the Hurricane season that far east is an anomaly.

You just dont see storms form east of 40 degrees this early and it could be a portending of an active season according to some of the gurus over at Eastern US Weather forums.

This one is going to be a "Fish" storm.

yes, quite unique this storm is.

a what?

For all the hurricane junkies (I know how it feels...grew up in S La.),

Even a small one like this newbie can shut down all offshore production. Right now most operaors are in a quick alert mode. Regardless of how small any storm entering maybe it will likely shut down all production for a few days even if there's no substantial damage. It takes a minimum of 36 hours to shut down most operations in the Gulf. And after that you still have 25,000 workers to evac on any given day. In other words, you have to start shuting down a good day before you really know where it's heading in the Gulf.

The Gulf supplies 18% of US oil production last I saw the number. Even if there's little damage, 4 or 5 storms rolling into the Gulf could lose us 10 to 20 million bbls of oil cumulatively. Normally that wouldn't cause much of a price spike but times are rather different now.

A "Fish" storm is one that just affects the fishies out to sea. Although Rockman is right also, there isnt any drilling in the Central or Western Atlantic that I know about.

While it is steering clear of the GOM and the oil platforms it does appear as if it might be a little more than a fish storm. I guess it is just a matter of how much it will strengthen. It looks like it will steer clear of the warmest water and then hit the east coast.

This is the latest from NOAA:
Moving west. We may not have a miss on GOM yet.