Check out this neat ship tracking web site, which also has a nice hurricane tracking feature: link
It looks like ships have already cleared out of the Bay of Campeche, so possibly Mexican oil exports are already affected.

I'm a huge weather junkie. I got hooked on weather about 10 years ago and everyday check the weather models/websites. I'm no expert. I HIGHLY recommend Eastern US weather forums. I think the group of guys that post over there are excellent. This could really play some havoc over in the Campeche if he reforms after getting across the Yucatan.

Me too!

My first year following the forums here at PO.com. I just got back from vacation and visited Fort Pickens in Pensacola. Hurricane Ivan knocked out the road and it has yet to be repaired. We had to bike about 5 miles and push our bikes 1.5 miles through sand to make it to the fort. An osprey was nesting in the abandoned picnic area, the desolated man-made structures felt like the future. What an awesome visit to see the natural world reasserting itself.

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see if Arthur intensifies as quickly as hurricanes did last year.

I used to love big storms and I have seen plenty of them.

But last month we had hail larger than golf balls for fifteen minutes. That was pretty damn frighting and after a minute you just want it to stop. Later that night we had round two and a lighting strike so close it nearly knocked us out of bed.

If we have a bad hurricane season this year I betting it will go from interesting to down right frighting in a hurry. Another big one heads up towards Houston or New Orleans and people will get to test out if they have made enough preps.

I definitely had my fill of hurricanes living in SW Florida until recently-now I'm ducking tornadoes in TN. We were very close to the eyewall of Hurricane Charlie in 2004. I was working that day in the hospital (ER doc) and the hurricane tore a huge hole in the roof of our hospital. It was like a waterfall flowing through the floors, over breaker boxes, ICU etc. We were having to move patients to hallways, down on lower levels. Our ER entrance doors were blown out. The nurses and I were trying to move mattresses and cabinets against the windows of our special care nursery. We had to evacuate all our patients to our sister hospital in town. I ended up "in house" for 72 hours because communications were down and additional docs on staff couldn't be contacted. Our power at home was out for 2 weeks. We camped out in our horse trailer with it being powered by a generator. By the next hurricane, we had our whole house and barn wired into a big central generator. Its a headache putting the metal storm shutters up and down all summer. After 2004 and 2005 our family definitely was feeling "hurricane fatigue"!!!!

"Arthur"?

Smashing! Doesn't look like it'll cause much havoc in the Bay of Campeche. How about a "Storm Watch 2008" Sticky Thread? Or does that sound too 6 O'Clock News?

Pemex Closes Two Oil Terminals on Heavy Winds, Rain

Bloomberg

Looks like there will be a delay in some US imports due to Arthur. Not too much to worry about but should be bullish for the short-term.

We'll see if this blows out by tommorow. In that area, sometimes the water is still choppy after the storm has past.

Hurricane Dean Thread
Last year's popcorn munching feast happened in August when Hurricane Dean struck the area around Cantarell.

This was an unusually strong storm to hit that area, and it basically screwed up exports for about a month after that, the argument can be made that some of the effects were permanent.

So this much oil is in play, if this little guy gets into the BOC.

That website is amazing! I added it to my favorites. Thanks!

Invest 91L is up.. clipping along the northern coast of venezuela
The national hurricane centre reckon it will go inland over venezuela tonight but some models have it staying over the carribean and tracking toward the GOM SSD

The GOM, Carribean Sea, and the Atlantic are reaching that nice bathtub temperature which provides the feed for Hurricanes.

We are also moving into an El Nino and coming out of a Nina phase which means different shear patterns for the spawining grounds, likley more favorable this year.

Sea Surface Temps (SST)

It looks like a early early season cape-verde storm might be trying to form. I doubt it will amount to much, but if anything, it would reiterate to Wall-street traders that hurricane season is here and hurricane frequency is only on the increase as we get closer to the "peak" of the hurricane season [september 10ish]. This will be only a preview of coming attractions. link

If it develops, I can say I posted first.