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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:53 pm 
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Jack wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Wouldn't we expect a dip in the birth rate 7-9 months from now? Women not getting enough food or clean water loosing the pregnancies? Not as much baby making going on as people focus on more immediate needs of food and water?


Entirely possible. On the other hand, the lack of alternative entertainment and the urge to attempt procreation might offset the issues you mention.

Notice the video scenes of Darfur - poor nutrition, disease, and lots of babies.


I suppose you're right... we just don't know. Looks like there are 4.6 children per woman in Sudan today (I can't find any stats just for Darfur).

Of course if the world stopped trying to support them with relief food and shelter because we were too busy with our own problems then we might see a sharp decline?

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:10 am 
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HeadlineNews is reporting (7:01 am CT) that the UN has suspended food aid to Myanmar. Apparently, the military has confiscated the first two food flights (no link yet).
It certainly sounds like someone is pushing for a dieoff, doesn't it?

Also:
Myanmar blocks foreign aid workers
YANGON, Myanmar (CNN) -- Pressure was mounting on cyclone-devastated Myanmar Friday to allow access to an army of foreign relief workers as the country's isolationist military regime rejected expert help in delivering aid to victims at risk of disease and starvation. …
Myanmar

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Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri May 09, 2008 6:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:29 am 
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Ferretlover wrote:
It certainly sounds like someone is pushing for a dieoff, doesn't it?


You beat me to it. Population control, their way of dealing with the poor and protecting their own.


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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:09 pm 
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wisconsin_cur wrote:
Of course if the world stopped trying to support them with relief food and shelter because we were too busy with our own problems then we might see a sharp decline?


Maybe. I think it's going to take a very serious change in food availability - or other parameters - before that happens.

I guess we'll find out.

8)

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:09 pm 
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wisconsin_cur wrote:
Of course if the world stopped trying to support them with relief food and shelter because we were too busy with our own problems then we might see a sharp decline?


Maybe. I think it's going to take a very serious change in food availability - or other parameters - before that happens.

I guess we'll find out.

8)

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:24 am 
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The possibility of a "lost generation"

Quote:
A generation of children could be wiped out if help does not quickly get through to the cyclone-stricken villages of Burma, according to international officials frustrated by the military junta’s obstruction of western aid workers.

Charities warned that epidemics of “apocalyptic proportions” could be caused by delays in securing supplies of fresh water and medicines.

Latest estimates suggest that up to 116,000 people died when a tidal surge swept across the Irrawaddy delta from ocean water whipped up by Cyclone Nargis.

Of 1.7m who have been left homeless or are in distress, many hundreds of thousands are children who are most vulnerable to waterborne diseases. Reports of dysentery have already surfaced and there are fears of a measles epidemic.


This is, as Jack has pointed out, rather small on the grand scheme of things. For those of you looking forward t to the die off, is it as this small appetizer as great as you thought it would be?

Quote:
“We are very worried about a ‘second disaster’,” said Greg Beck of the International Rescue Committee. “We’ve had some early indications that cholera is breaking out . . . also dengue fever and malaria. These are treatable and we could contain them very easily if we were able to get access.”

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:41 am 
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Boat carrying aid for Myanmar victims sinks
Disease threatens up to 1.5 million, international agency Oxfam says
May. 11, 2008
AP--BANGKOK, Thailand - A cargo ship carrying relief supplies for more than 1,000 cyclone victims in Myanmar sank, a International Red Cross spokesman said on Sunday, further complicating attempts to help hundreds of thousands of desperate survivors of Cyclone Nargis.
The accident was a big blow to the already slow relief work, IFRC spokesman Michael Annear said.
The organization said the boat was traveling from Yangon to Mawlamyinegyun when it hit a submerged tree trunk and sank early on Sunday. …
Murphy's Law

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:19 am 
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wisconsin_cur wrote:
This is, as Jack has pointed out, rather small on the grand scheme of things. For those of you looking forward t to the die off, is it as this small appetizer as great as you thought it would be?


Interesting point. If the numbers are to be believed, then 4 months growth has been neutralized. If we indulge in giddy optimism regarding the so-called lost generation, then perhaps the numbers will triple, resulting in neutral population growth for 1 year.

It's interesting that the events are publicized somewhat - but not well - due to the logistics of getting media personnel into the area. It's interesting that infrastructure breakdown exacerbates other problems. And, a further factor is that disease follows destruction of infrastructure and famine.

It may well be that Burma is a paradigm for the die-off.

As to the question posed by Wisconsin - yes, it is rather tasty. It has an earthy essence, with a hint of tears. Strong emotional loading for the participants, along with a nuance of loss among those who care. The textures of striving and futility balance nicely. And the presentation, while understated, is suitably artistic. Perhaps we should name our little dish Triumph de Malthus.

Yes, this is a pleasant little Hors d'oeuvre. It prepares the emotional pallet for heartier fare to come; it does not spoil the appetite, but rather, stimulates it.

Bring it on.

8)

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:39 am 
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UN food agency says rice prices surging in Myanmar
ROME - Rice prices in Myanmar's largest city have surged 50 percent since Cyclone Nargis, which killed tens of thousands of people and flooded entire rice-growing areas, a U.N. food agency said Monday.
The cyclone hit May 3 as farmers were harvesting the dry season crop that accounts for 20 percent of annual production, said the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization.
The destruction could reduce access to food and may force Myanmar to seek imports from neighboring countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam, putting further pressure on world prices, it said. Myanmar has previously been self-sufficient and an exporter of rice. …
No longer self-sufficient?

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 6:57 am 
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A sequel on the way?

Fox news Link

Quote:
BANGKOK, Thailand — A second cyclone was forming Wednesday near Burma, renamed Myanmar by the ruling military junta, less than two weeks after it was devastated by a killer storm, the U.N. said.

The United Nations' weather center is tracking a nascent tropical storm that is likely to become a cyclone, said Amanda Pitt, the spokeswoman of the world body's humanitarian relief program, in Bangkok, Thailand.

"This is terrible," she told reporters, adding that it could further jeopardize the people who survived Cyclone Nargis on May 3 and the efforts to distribute aid for them.

She couldn't say when or where the cyclone would make a landfall, or when it would become a full-fledged cyclone, which is being monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a part of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Center.

The center said on its Web site that "the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good."

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 Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead
New postPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:54 pm 
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We are now on day 10 since the disaster and from what I've seen reported there has been no significant distribution of relief.

The rule of 2 would indicate that large numbers will die of starvation in the next 3-4 days. I think we'll never know how many.

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 Post subject: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
New postPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 12:40 pm 
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A day early for the first official day of the tropical storm season, NOAA/NHC declares Tropical Storm Arthur. Off the east side of the Yucatan. Projections right now have it weakening as it crosses, thus a rainmaker tropical depression/40mph wind storm over Cantarell for the next day or two.

Nothing huge, just a reminder that June is here and the waves off Africa are getting wound up again.

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 Post subject: Re: It's tropical storm season, again!
New postPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 12:59 pm 
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Therrreee Off! Right on schedule, a tropical storm is showing up to mark the start of the season.
By no means am I a weather expert, but I find hurricanes very interesting. Hope our regular PO.com weather experts show up by the time of the first Gulf of Mexico storm.
link
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Alma's remains could become a Gulf of Mexico tropical depression
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:30 AM EDT on May 31, 2008: The remnants of Tropical Storm Alma reorganized over the Western Caribbean this morning, just off the coast of Belize. The storm (now called Invest 90L), whipped up winds over 40 mph over the ocean just east of Belize, according to this morning's 7:11am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Observations from Buoy 42056, just to the north in the Yucatan Channel, showed sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 35, with 10 foot seas. The center of 90L has now moved inland over Belize, and the storm has missed its chance to become the first tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It will have one more chance to do so on Sunday afternoon, when several models, including the GFDL and NOGAPS, are predicting that 90L will continue west into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche and reorganize. The other models keep 90L inland over Mexico and do not foresee development into a tropical depression. If 90L does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will not stay there long--a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast by all the models to force 90L on a west-southwesterly track into Mexico, giving the storm perhaps 12 hours to reorganize. Wind shear will be low, 5-10 knots, and I give 90L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night or Monday morning. The storm should bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. If 90L does manage to reorganize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, southeast Mexico could end up with 5-10 inches of rain. Here's NHC's take on the system:

Special tropical disturbance statement 1130 am EDT Sat May 31 2008
The broad area of low pressure previously located over the western Caribbean Sea has moved inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. This system is accompanied by a large area of squalls and gusty winds primarily over the waters north and east of the circulation center. Significant development is not expected today as the system moves slowly westward over the Yucatan Peninsula. However...there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form if the area of low pressure moves over the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.
Even if no development occurs...localized heavy rains and floods are possible during the next couple of days over portions of Honduras...El Salvador..Guatemala...Belize...and southeastern Mexico. Future tropical disturbance statements will be issued on this system as necessary. For information specific to your area...please consult statements from your local weather office.
Forecaster Avila/Rhome

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 Post subject: Re: It's tropical storm season, again!
New postPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 1:02 pm 
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I'm a hurricane junkie, and the great coverage of the 2005 storm season is what hooked me on this site. I already cruised through on a regular basis before that, but it was the realization that I was getting the best news coverage here that hooked me.

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 Post subject: Re: It's tropical storm season, again!
New postPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 1:25 pm 
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Very exciting! I'm hoping we'll get some flooding rains from this season's storms! :-D

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