yeah... only to be expected. That's traders for you. jumpy as a horse with a burr up it's butt

You don't know the half of it!!! It's like calculating where a chased jackrabbit will go next.

Skeptik? I'd wait to see where it is once it enters the gulf. Its anyone's guess right now.
Mexico has a ton of production in Campeche, so if this stays south it will surely shut in a bunch of production.
If you've been to the Yucatan, you'd know its just a large flat area that will effect a system a lot differently then the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba.

Somethin' odd here. That thing is floating much further north than the models and nobody other than NOAA is talking TS Dolly even though that name came out over 12 hours ago. I'm having an odd feeling about this. link The track they have there does not seem right not even historically.

I thought it was just me. Perhaps the visual impression is deceiving??? Yet, it keeps looking to me like it's bouncing northward, as you say. I will be curious to check the site first thing in the morning.

Here's a map showing where hurricane force winds are possible. Notice that they are all in the northern Gulf, and that they are close to Brownsville. Is that where there are a lot of oil installations? I don't know. It's too far north to hit Cantarell, since that's down off of Veracruz. link It could get interesting this next week...

Jeff Vail at TOD states, "Looks like Dolly will thread the needle and not affect either Mexican offshore production infrastructure or Texas offshore or onshore oil infrastructure." So I guess that area doesn't have much in the way of oil installations there.

I want to be careful here and make sure to put a disclaimer, I am not a professional weather forecaster, this is all speculation. Now that said, I think you might see a big 'Ooops' and a strong redefinition of the path more to the NNW in later runs. I hope I am wrong but as I said someting about that does not look at all like it is going W and then NW. I think KJ is right, tomorrow morning will reveal alot.
link Again the center here just does not seem right.

We need to document some of this stuff they are saying, just for posterity's sake. link In that clip all of the activity is to the north northeast of where his track prediction places the center, nothing about that prediction seems to line up. The center they have for their line is barely in the convection at all.

I agree.

The infrared image here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Shows the center way north of NOAA's projected track here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

The only thing I can think is that what we are observing is shear pushing the convection to the NE. I'm shaking my head as I write that. We'll just have to wait and see and hope and pray for the best. The very last thing we need now is anything like a major refinery getting swamped or 800kb going off line. The season has barely started.

Thanks for the vid, Peleg.

Perhaps everyone's lazy. A Sunday evening. Not up to doing a good job.

Not that it has any relevance, but hurricane fausto is having a grand old time out in the Pacific.

Are we talking individual over-entitled shoot for the least common denominator, pride oneself on knowing things that anyone of decent intelligence can learn in a few minutes lazy, or institutional paralysis lazy, or lack of understanding of how little one actually knows because the market in which we work is too small, or are we talking about not understanding how certain disciplines allow understanding of myriad others, there are alot of things we could be talking about. We could be talking abou couching one's extreme social views behind what appears to be a business while all the while covertly attacking populations of people who happen to disagree with our ideology, or we could be talking about the New World Order, the apocalypse, or nothing at all.

There are some things that all the humans on earth cannot defeat, or think their way out of. But we keep fighting don't we?

LOL

Heres a radar showing the gap between cuba and the yucatan, if the storm can squeeze through the gap we may see an eye open up soon.


Radar


And another storm for next week maybe?


A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.