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Page added on April 29, 2018
‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention
“We’re doomed,” says Mayer Hillman with such a beaming smile that it takes a moment for the words to sink in. “The outcome is death, and it’s the end of most life on the planet because we’re so dependent on the burning of fossil fuels. There are no means of reversing the process which is melting the polar ice caps. And very few appear to be prepared to say so.”
Hillman, an 86-year-old social scientist and senior fellow emeritus of the Policy Studies Institute, does say so. His bleak forecast of the consequence of runaway climate change, he says without fanfare, is his “last will and testament”. His last intervention in public life. “I’m not going to write anymore because there’s nothing more that can be said,” he says when I first hear him speak to a stunned audience at the University of East Anglia late last year.
From Malthus to the Millennium Bug, apocalyptic thinking has a poor track record. But when it issues from Hillman, it may be worth paying attention. Over nearly 60 years, his research has used factual data to challenge policymakers’ conventional wisdom. In 1972, he criticised out-of-town shopping centres more than 20 years before the government changed planning rules to stop their spread. In 1980, he recommended halting the closure of branch line railways – only now are some closed lines reopening. In 1984, he proposed energy ratings for houses – finally adopted as government policy in 2007. And, more than 40 years ago, he presciently challenged society’s pursuit of economic growth.
When we meet at his converted coach house in London, his classic Dawes racer still parked hopefully in the hallway (a stroke and a triple heart bypass mean he is – currently – forbidden from cycling), Hillman is anxious we are not side-tracked by his best-known research, which challenged the supremacy of the car.
“With doom ahead, making a case for cycling as the primary mode of transport is almost irrelevant,” he says. “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”
While the focus of Hillman’s thinking for the last quarter-century has been on climate change, he is best known for his work on road safety. He spotted the damaging impact of the car on the freedoms and safety of those without one – most significantly, children – decades ago. Some of his policy prescriptions have become commonplace – such as 20mph speed limits – but we’ve failed to curb the car’s crushing of children’s liberty. In 1971, 80% of British seven- and eight-year-old children went to school on their own; today it’s virtually unthinkable that a seven-year-old would walk to school without an adult. As Hillman has pointed out, we’ve removed children from danger rather than removing danger from children – and filled roads with polluting cars on school runs. He calculated that escorting children took 900m adult hours in 1990, costing the economy £20bn each year. It will be even more expensive today.
Our society’s failure to comprehend the true cost of cars has informed Hillman’s view on the difficulty of combatting climate change. But he insists that I must not present his thinking on climate change as “an opinion”. The data is clear; the climate is warming exponentially. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the world on its current course will warm by 3C by 2100. Recent revised climate modelling suggested a best estimate of 2.8C but scientists struggle to predict the full impact of the feedbacks from future events such as methane being released by the melting of the permafrost.
Hillman is amazed that our thinking rarely stretches beyond 2100. “This is what I find so extraordinary when scientists warn that the temperature could rise to 5C or 8C. What, and stop there? What legacies are we leaving for future generations? In the early 21st century, we did as good as nothing in response to climate change. Our children and grandchildren are going to be extraordinarily critical.”
Global emissions were static in 2016 but the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was confirmed as beyond 400 parts per million, the highest level for at least three million years (when sea levels were up to 20m higher than now). Concentrations can only drop if we emit no carbon dioxide whatsoever, says Hillman. “Even if the world went zero-carbon today that would not save us because we’ve gone past the point of no return.”
Although Hillman has not flown for more than 20 years as part of a personal commitment to reducing carbon emissions, he is now scornful of individual action which he describes as “as good as futile”. By the same logic, says Hillman, national action is also irrelevant “because Britain’s contribution is minute. Even if the government were to go to zero carbon it would make almost no difference.”
Instead, says Hillman, the world’s population must globally move to zero emissions across agriculture, air travel, shipping, heating homes – every aspect of our economy – and reduce our human population too. Can it be done without a collapse of civilisation? “I don’t think so,” says Hillman. “Can you see everyone in a democracy volunteering to give up flying? Can you see the majority of the population becoming vegan? Can you see the majority agreeing to restrict the size of their families?”
Hillman doubts that human ingenuity can find a fix and says there is no evidence that greenhouse gases can be safely buried. But if we adapt to a future with less – focusing on Hillman’s love and music – it might be good for us. “And who is ‘we’?” asks Hillman with a typically impish smile. “Wealthy people will be better able to adapt but the world’s population will head to regions of the planet such as northern Europe which will be temporarily spared the extreme effects of climate change. How are these regions going to respond? We see it now. Migrants will be prevented from arriving. We will let them drown.”
A small band of artists and writers, such as Paul Kingsnorth’s Dark Mountain project, have embraced the idea that “civilisation” will soon end in environmental catastrophe but only a few scientists – usually working beyond the patronage of funding bodies, and nearing the end of their own lives – have suggested as much. Is Hillman’s view a consequence of old age, and ill health? “I was saying these sorts of things 30 years ago when I was hale and hearty,” he says.
Hillman accuses all kinds of leaders – from religious leaders to scientists to politicians – of failing to honestly discuss what we must do to move to zero-carbon emissions. “I don’t think they can because society isn’t organised to enable them to do so. Political parties’ focus is on jobs and GDP, depending on the burning of fossil fuels.”
Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.
Can civilisation prolong its life until the end of this century? “It depends on what we are prepared to do.” He fears it will be a long time before we take proportionate action to stop climatic calamity. “Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline industry being dismantled when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over the world? It’s almost as if we’re deliberately attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the reverse of what we should be doing, with everybody’s silent acquiescence, and nobody’s batting an eyelid.”
110 Comments on "‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention"
GregT on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 1:39 pm
“I had a 1000 acre corn and soy farm in 2000.”
Where did you get the 5 or so million dollars from needed to have and farm 1 1/2 sections of land?
Charles Goldman on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 1:42 pm
Climate change and the reality of warming will have profound impacts on the availability of potable water for the world’s human and animal populations. Lake and river sources so many of which are becoming more polluted will be. further stresses by droughts on the one hand and floods on the other. Ground water supplies are all ready depleted by our agricultural , largely uncontrolled pumping, and eutrophication of our lakes and streams will be further stressed by cyanobactreria blooms and the neurotoxins they produce. We are mostly water and without a continuous supplies we cannot survive. Better water management on a global scale is essential for our survival. As E. O. Wilson and others have observed humans may well be the next extinction. What in my opinion seems to be lacking in the understanding of our changing climate is the acceleration of the process. The more it warms the faster it warms. So looking towards the end of this century may be an over optimistic view of our future.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 1:52 pm
In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically.
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
Frederik Labaar on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 1:54 pm
Climate Change Disaster, the biggest Scam in human history. The Vostok Ice Core Drilling data is something both the Sane People and the Global Warming Liars agree on as sound scientific data. Analyze it and you will find that history teaches us the truth about climate.
You want details email me at [email protected]
Spencer Selander on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:24 pm
Davy, you don’t have to go as far as permaculture to increase soil organic matter, there are practices that are compatible with annual cropping that can be done at scale. Not everything will work everywhere – for instance dryland farming in areas with marginal rainfall, cover crops might use too much water, conversion to pasture could be the only practical way it could be done.
The fact that the current economic paradigm stands in the way is exactly my point, we need to make it profitable for farmers to sequester carbon.
Kat C on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:38 pm
When the coal burning stops, the dimming stops and the heat soars. There is no fix anymore. Enjoy what time we have however you wish to do it.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:51 pm
Dumbass does not even know the price of land in Missouri. Get that right and we will talk.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:55 pm
SS, we are on the same wavelength. We both agree it is difficult to be a more responsible farmer when the system is pushing farming towards maximization of production with conservation as secondary. When money becomes tight we know who wins.
joe zycherman on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 3:06 pm
we are fucked. People just love polluted air and water
Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 3:33 pm
Mm
You missed the Saudi audit. More reserves than originally thought.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 3:49 pm
Boat
Wow…Around five percent more! Around 10 billion barrels. That is enough to meet the worlds demand for about 4 months. The saudi’s problems are not how much oil they have but how fast their population is growing. Since the average Saudi woman has five children. Which is eating up their exports at an alarming rate. And they burn oil for electricity which is eating into their exports as well. Once they start cutting off their welfare programs their people are going to start an uprising!
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 3:59 pm
“Once they start cutting off their welfare programs their people are going to start an uprising!”
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/saudi-arabia-purges-muslim-brotherhood-influence-from-schools-1.5933565
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/saudi-brotherhood-friends-foes-170623093039202.html
The MB briefly had Egypt, until the military got the nod from Washington to topple Morsi. Democracy is wonderful, but you shouldn’t do it over your lungs (inhale).
The MB is THE reason for the troubles with Qatar. The MB is the #1 candidate vehicle for a takeover in Riadh.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:08 pm
Government Intervention is triggered by a Keynesian belief that aggregate demand can be increased by lower interest rates and by increasing government deficits thereby somehow spurring economic growth. Debt grows faster than income growth and eventually has to be restructured, i.e., everyone loses in the end. Since 2007, global debt has grown by US$57 trillion and it’s had disastrous results. Greece, Detroit, Puerto Richo, Venezuela are just the beginning of this trend. Soon, it will be followed by larger countries like China and United States.
https://imgur.com/a/QHebNeI
Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:12 pm
Mm
They did cut subsidies and welfare. They also announced a 200 billion spend on solar to cut some oil consumption. It appears the Saudi prince went to a better college than you. Thank goodness. Lol
ForPetessake on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:19 pm
Who was there to start and stop the previous dozen or so warming and cooling climate changes that has occurred over the life span of the planet Earth?
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:24 pm
Boat
Its too hot in the dessert for solar to work efficiently.
Desert sun in Qatar too hot for solar panels to work
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/desert-sun-in-qatar-too-hot-for-solar-panels-to-work-h23kmktbp
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:26 pm
Boat
And there is too much air pollution for solar to work efficiently.
Air Pollution Casts Shadow over Solar Energy Production
http://pratt.duke.edu/about/news/solar-pollution
Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:52 pm
Mm
That’s where jobs are going to be. Glass cleaner and a roll of paper towels. The Saudi will buy college debt and ship your ass over to clean. Pollution? Breath deep, your also the new filter.
Neeraj on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:00 pm
“reduce our human population too“
Always the goal of these people. What an awful man.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:01 pm
Boat
“you’re”..A dumb ass
peakyeast on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:07 pm
@Mastermind: Please have a look at this datasheet – I have told you this before, but you obviously did not believe it…
http://www.spectrolab.com/DataSheets/PV/CPV/C4MJ_40_Percent_Solar_Cell.pdf
These solarcells functions a temperatures <110C. That should be sufficient for usage in warm areas – but its not standard run of the mill products – but they could be given the right economic incentives.
ML Green on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:36 pm
First, let’s stop confusing what nature has done in the past with the bloody climate. Of course the climate has changed of the hundreds of thousands of years.
What this current issue is all about is the fact that human activity is causing it. The ice cores being looked at with the false conclusion that it’s happened before, therefore this one isn’t our fault is beyond ignorant. The proof of this is, in fact, in those same ice cores.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:42 pm
Peaky
Solar is scam. To many clouds in the sky and night time. And too much air pollution. But if you want to believe in the energy tooth fairy go right ahead. I’m sure china and big tech would love to sell you some panels!
peakyeast on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:52 pm
@MM: We are talking about Saudi Arabia here.
Also: Clouds is no problem if you chose the right type of solar panel.
I have solar panels – and live in Denmark. Denmark is a real sucky shit country when it comes to unclouded sunshine – nonetheless they have produced 90% of my heating + electrical consumption for the past 5 years.
You are too one-dimensional in your views. Solarcells may not be optimal for all places, but solar and wind and hydro could power humanity and provide a decent living if we chose to adapt and not also had the problems of eco-habitat destruction and resource exhaustion.
I believe and hope for a fast crash ASAP, but it may be that we will drag it out. It certainly is possible to survive on weeds and insects if you really want to. Most will chose not to live.
Leonard Davis on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:02 pm
Its a sad statement about humanity. He’s right on the money. People will not give up their comforts or change their life style easely. Not until its too late, which by all practical accounts it is. One major effect that almost every climatojligest fails to underscore is the seas warming, deleted oxygen in the water and at the very least 1/3 of all life in the ocean will cease to exist. Causing a major food shortage for human life on this planet. Its bad enough with the atmosphere being polluted. Once the seas die all life as we know will quickly cease and the planet will be dead within 300 years. Hay you and I don’t have to worry about that our grandchildren will. They will curse the day we were born.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:03 pm
Greg: “Where did you get the 5 or so million dollars from needed to have and farm 1 1/2 sections of land?”
Answer: Daddy. They had to get the rotten fruit out of the family circle so they dumped him down in the Ozarks. ^_^
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:07 pm
Peakyeast, I too hope for a fast crash while there may still be enough resources to have a decent life. Weeds and insects are just another source of food, not a negative.
vulcan alex on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:08 pm
He is a social scientist, he has no idea on the hard sciences. Sure the climate is changing, sure some perhaps many will suffer or die. The planet will be just fine as will most people in the US.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:22 pm
There is simply no way that exceptionalturd has access to anything like money. Its probable that he heard $5000, and inflated to 5 million. Remember he likes to spin and weave grandiose yarns that amplify both his status, and achievements. ‘Daddy’? I hardly think so. Ive think weve already established it is would logistically impossible for him, or anyone to do any kind of ‘work’, on a ‘farm’, once you factor in his near 24/7 mashing of the refresh button on his browser. His busy schedule here precludes anything like ‘farm work’, or work of any kind. I doubt he’s even gotten around to hanging that door on his outdoor yet.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:28 pm
If you hope for a fast collapse you are hoping for your own death to come quickly and painfully. There is no restarting the system after the collapse.
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:31 pm
No shit, MM. lol I still hope it happens and soon. Before the Us can start WW3 and end it with nukes.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:32 pm
anon, you are probably correct. I have seen no indication of what he claims to be. Similar to the claims of his sock puppet, Mm.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:38 pm
“Yra Harris: “There Are Increasing Concerns Around The Globe That Central Bankers Do Not Have An Exit Strategy””
I maintain that they are perfectly on target for their real plan, the Great Leveling. They have set the trap with unpayable debt and a high level of global dependency and are about to trip it with increasing interest rates and tightening of liquidity.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-29/yra-harris-there-are-increasing-concerns-around-globe-central-bankers-do-not-have
We shall see. Are YOU prepared?
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:04 pm
“Probably correct” pretty lame assertion there 3rd world. Are you weakening? Give it a rest old man your not up to the challenge.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:06 pm
Nonesens 3rd world. There is no plan. It is more by the seat of their pants. You conspiracy junkies are hilarious.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:07 pm
Greggie, 3rd world is spreading Russian disinformation from the hedge.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:38 pm
Davy is spreading bullshit as usual. The baby killer is back online in his cell at the psycho ward.
Luke on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:40 pm
400 nuclear power plants not being shut down properly says all you “preppers” and “permaculture” folks get to die from cancer. We are doomed.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:43 pm
Wow, 3rd world, such anger, are you weakening? Where is greggie when you need him?
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:48 pm
Baring a nuke exchange, Luke, the plants will be shut down properly. Everyone working there will know that if they are not, they, and their families, will die. Too many propaganda movies.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:51 pm
Anger Davy? That twas a true statement. You are a nothing. A zero. A toy to play with and then ignore. A joke of nature.
I don’t need anyone to help put you down. It is too easy. You are a frustrated middle-age, immature, arrogant, narrow-minded, bullshitter with no future except as a tax slave and serf to your masters there in the American gulag.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:56 pm
Wow, 3rd world, that comment is miles from your normal pretending to ignore me stupidity. I say mission accomplished. The old man is had. LMFAO. Greggie!!!! The old man needs help.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:00 pm
Sometimes I am in the mood to poke you with the stick Sometimes not, but I hit the nerve when I do. You never do. Frustrating isn’t it? LMAO
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:21 pm
3rd world, consistency is a sign of character. Maybe you should work on you character because what I am seeing is a lack of character. Is the small little pisshole town you moved to not what you bargained for? Lol. I bet your missing the cushy westernized condo you had in Makati. I think you are showing a little buyers remorse.
Jess on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:49 pm
NASA.gov, displays a graph for Carbon concentration in PPM as a “vital-sign”!
The graph features a Y- Axis spanning 35 PPM, while the data is 408 PPM.
The axis is truncated BY 92%!!!
Sorry, I received an A in HS Math….I can see a scam!
Thruncating the graph exaggerates the change shown, and can be used to make a change look large, when there is VERY little!
Why is this necessary if catastrophic AGW is so well founded?
Steve on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:00 pm
Sooo! I guess that the glaciers retreated from North America because of all the fossil fuels the cavemen were burning?!! How stupid, there is no evidence that the average temp of the earth has deviated more than a few degrees plus or minus in hundreds of years. That’s why they changed the outcry from global warming to climate change. Yes climate changes, get used to it!!!
makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:08 am
Steve, ignorance is no excuse. Denial is obvious in your response. I guess all of the ice at the North Pole being open water more and more means the temps are cooling? LMAO.
Are you heavily invested in the oily industry? Career maybe. Do you recognize oil industry propaganda (No temp increase! Ignore the facts!) when you see it? It doesn’t seem so. This ‘temp change’ will eliminate humans. THAT makes a ‘Yuge’ difference.
Jess on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:01 am
MAKATI1 Do you have a climte job added under the Obama Admin?
Do you understand Math????
NASA.gov, displays a graph for Carbon concentration in PPM as a “vital-sign”!
The graph features a Y- Axis spanning 35 PPM, while the data is 408 PPM.
The axis is truncated BY 92%!!!
Sorry, I received an A in HS Math….I can see a scam!
Thruncating the graph exaggerates the change shown, and can be used to make a change look large, when there is VERY little!
Why is this necessary if catastrophic AGW is so well founded?
Jess on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:05 am
MAKATI1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_the_United_States
This junk page uses the same graph “grooming”…
Why IS THAT necessary???
Looks like Madison Avenue technique, what do you think?
makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:14 am
Jess, are you blind to anything not on the internet? Look outside. If you are more than 40 years old you can see the changes. Take a good look at the Jet Stream and see how wild it has been recently. Way off of its normal circular pattern and has been for years.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-95.71,58.28,413
I don’t need government (NASA) propaganda to tell me what is happening in the real world. I live there and have for 74 years. How long have you lived on this planet?
BTW: Math scores do not indicate the ability to reason or use common sense. A cheap computer can do math but it cannot reason or use “common sense”.