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Page added on October 29, 2013
Peak Oil May Keep Catastrophic Climate Change in Check
Even as governments worldwide have largely failed to limit emissions of global warming gases, the decline of fossil fuel production may reduce those emissions significantly, experts said yesterday during a panel discussion at the Geological Society of America meeting.
Conventional production of oil has been on a plateau since 2005, said James Murray, a professor of oceanography at the University of Washington, who chaired the panel.
As production of conventional oil, which is far easier to get out of the ground, decreases, companies have turned to unconventional sources, such as those in deep water, tar sands or tight oil reserves, which have to be released by hydraulic fracturing.
But those techniques tend to lead to production peaks that tail off quickly, Murray said.
The panelists said these trends belie the high-end emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That scenario, known as RCP 8.5, and often referred to as the “business as usual” scenario, has carbon dioxide emissions increasing through 2100.
“I just think it’s going to be really hard to achieve some of these really high CO2 scenarios,” Murray said.
David Rutledge, an engineering professor at the California Institute of Technology who studies world coal production, said the IPCC’s “business as usual” scenario is unrealistic because it essentially assumes that growth of fossil fuels like coal will continue apace, which is unlikely.
Recovery estimates may be too high
In reality, governments tend to overestimate their coal reserves, and much of these reserves will never be accessed, Rutledge said.
“There is little relationship between the RCPs and the actual historical experience of oil, gas and coal production,” Rutledge said.
Rutledge said of the four IPCC scenarios, he found the second RCP scenario, RCP 4.5, where carbon dioxide emissions flatten out around 2080, to be more plausible under a business-as-usual scenario for coal exploitation.
“4.5 would be the closest one if you look at the mining history,” Rutledge said. “My own opinion is that no one should use RCP 8.5 for any purpose at all.”
David Hughes, of Global Sustainability Research Inc., pointed out that production from tight oil fields like North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford plays quickly reach what he called “middle age,” when production begins to fall off.
He said it is likely that the Bakken Shale oil play will peak in 2015 or 2016 and that the Eagle Ford Shale play, another significant U.S. oil production area, will peak soon after.
“Long-term [production] sustainability is highly questionable, and environmental impacts are a major concern,” Hughes said.
The United States should see the temporary bounty of oil from these sources as an opportunity to develop alternative energy sources, Hughes added.
Charles Hall, a professor at the State University of New York who researches energy and wealth, in graph after graph showed that almost every oil-producing country has reached its peak of oil production.
This is even with a tripling of oil prices over the analysis period, Hall said.
Pieter Tans, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who wrapped up the panel, said that while governments and policymakers should still aggressively pursue the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, he did not believe that the most severe IPCC scenario, RCP 8.5, was likely.
From a climate perspective, there is some good news about the likely decline in the growth of fossil fuel production discussed by others at the panel, Tans said.
“It does decrease the chances of catastrophic climate change,” he said.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
10 Comments on "Peak Oil May Keep Catastrophic Climate Change in Check"
Plantagenet on Tue, 29th Oct 2013 5:33 pm
This is all very nice, but back in the real world CO2 is still increasing rapidly primarily because of coal-fired electrical plants in India and China.
Peak Oil won’t stop or even slow the use of coal—if anything coal use will accelerate as oil runs short.
poaecdotcom on Tue, 29th Oct 2013 6:19 pm
But our economic paradigm is trade based and oil is responsible for 95%+ of transport of out goods.
We cannot run today’s business on declining LIQUID fuels.
Financial collapse will come first and with it a MASSIVE reduction in CO2 production.
Personally, I subscribe to the notion in the title.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 29th Oct 2013 6:45 pm
There are two ways to reverse the destruction of our environment. The first is for all the governments and world leaders to get together and come up with a plan that dramatically changes the way our economy works, and the way that people fit into that economy. Ain’t gonna happen. The second way is economic collapse and an abrupt end to all those many things that humans do to pollute and poison the environment. That, unfortunately, looks like a certainty.
rollin on Tue, 29th Oct 2013 11:09 pm
This story is all wishful thinking to make the present predicament seem less horrifying. It does not deal with the realities of conversion technology for coal and natural gas. It does not deal with the potential harm that pursuing methane hydrates may cause. It certainly ignores the huge amount of inertia in the system caused by entrenched business and infrastructure.
BAU is still proceeding long after the effects were known and no substantial or effective effort has been launched to halt it. In fact politicians still keep harping on economic growth, not transistion.
John_A on Tue, 29th Oct 2013 11:21 pm
Peak oil is not wishful thinking. Various peak oil talking heads have declared conventional peak oil production years and years ago!!
The bad news isn’t conventional oil, but the trillions of barrels of other chemical feedstock we will manufacture gasoline, diesel and jet fuel out of. Just because there is less conventional oil does NOT mean people will decide to suddenly being eco-friendly…Chinese drivers want Hummers too!
energyskeptic on Wed, 30th Oct 2013 12:19 am
We are at or near peak coal and probably past peak energy-wise (the remaining coal is lower energy). This is peer-reviewed science, check out my article and the references at the bottom. Peak Coal is already here or likely by 2020 — if true — IPCC 100 year projections too high? http://energyskeptic.com/2013/peak-coal-is-already-here-or-likely-by-2020-ipcc-100-year-projections-too-high/
Methane hydrates? Not going to happpen: http://energyskeptic.com/category/energy/methane-hydrates/
There are no forms of energy that can replace fossil fuels, see my booklists at http://energyskeptic.com/category/books/book-list/ or my summaries of these books and articles about all the different alternative energy and fossil fuel resources in my energy category http://energyskeptic.com/category/energy/
I believe that peak fossil fuels is what will prevent us from going extinct — fossil fuel is enabling us to cross all of the 9 boundaries
http://energyskeptic.com/2013/why-we-might-not-go-extinct/
BillT on Wed, 30th Oct 2013 1:12 am
We are Wiley Coyote, standing over open air and afraid to look down. We have passed many peaks since 1970,the year before we went off the gold standard for our world trade currency.
It was also the year oil peaked in the US and began it’s decline worldwide.
It is also the peak per capita energy consumption for the world.
I am sure there are others, but those are probably the three most important ones as they are the beginning of the end of BAU.
Ghung on Wed, 30th Oct 2013 1:36 pm
@energyskeptic: Whether or not we exploit methane hydrates may be moot since billions of tons of (CO2 equivalent) of methane are likely to be (are being) released as oceans continue to warm; the elephant in Guy McPherson’s room, but not mentioned in John Rockstrom’s 9 planetary boundaries. Also, according to many, we won’t see the AGW effects of the last 20 years of record CO2 emissions for another decade or more (the already-baked-in scenario). Guy’s recent presentation in Boulder here:
http://guymcpherson.com/2013/10/presentation-in-boulder-colorado/
Further, human’s seem to be quite adept at burning whatever they can under almost any circumstances. Whether or not hard limits will dramatically reduce our ability to continue to do so, in time to limit catastrophic global warming, is the question of the age. It’s clear that humans won’t curtail their consumption voluntarily, and we’re already party to an extinction level event for many species.
That said, I’m all for grasping at straws at this point. The best I can do is to continue to minimize my family’s contribution, encourage and help others to do the same, try to improve local resiliency, and watch things play out from the cheap seats.
Enjoying your site (as much as one can ‘enjoy’ this subject matter).
bobinget on Wed, 30th Oct 2013 6:09 pm
Geo-Engineering might not work for the entire planet.
Guy McPherson thinks the Southern Hemisphere will
be able to function longer because of the enormous ocean water sink.
Thanks energyskeptic, McPherson’s presentation confirmed my belief, we need to proceed with
experimental geo-Engineering now rather then wait.
Forget about a little methane escaping from my well water, we have bigger radioactive fish to fry.
I’ve been wondering, if the fuel rod removal at Fukushima is as dangerous as advertised, why are they proceeding? Also, why fuel rod removal (all twisted, deformed) ‘event’ more dangerous then in the air hydrogen bombs testing done in the 1950’s.
Obviously, so called “down winders” got large doses
but all did not have a premature death from cancer.
Would not it be more advisable to destroy those Fukushima reactors with a controlled nuclear explosion then risk the lives of billions?
Henry Larry on Thu, 14th Mar 2024 2:22 am
This discussion sheds light on the intricate relationship between fossil fuel production and climate change. It is clear that the decline in conventional oil extraction poses challenges but also offers opportunities for sustainable energy development.
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