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Page added on November 22, 2016
Land is scarce. Or just a civilization myth!
You can Google this one. Just the way I did. Keywords ‘World Population’.
The world population as of October 2016 is estimated at 7.4 billion. And the UN estimates it will further increase to 11.2 billion by the year 2100.
This one is on Google as well.
Total Earth’s land mass is 36.8 billion acres. So, if we were to do the numbers, each living human being could get approximately 5 acres of land individually. While, most would request their land to be at a Hawaiian beach and not Antarctica, there’s a trigger in these numbers.
To counter the hospitable v/s inhospitable land debate brewing in your mind, allow me to submit that as yet we haven’t even considered vertical living. We are only talking 5 acres horizontal land share per living soul. But does it occur to you that a whole lot of people around the world believed that we are running out of land in a rapidly growing economy, and the prices of houses and apartments should increase manifold!!
And thus, an investment value was stamped on to residential property and created a real estate bubble around the world whose collapse has fuelled the current economic crises.
Yes, all land is not equal. Economic activity concentrates in cities. Clustering of activities reduces time, logistics and costs. But then, all major countries have abundant land often tied up in regulatory barriers of conversion of land use or lack of economic incentives. This land is relatively undeveloped and yet in close proximity to some of the world’s largest economic and job centers.
Rapid expansion of Delhi NCR engulfing as far as 40 kms outside of UT border is a step in the same direction. If land was scarce, Bhiwadi, Rohtak, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, South Delhi, Noida should have all be priced similar.
Incidentally for the developer, realtor, home lending industry, there always exist the investors or the speculators who work on the premise that habitable land is in low supply and the increasing pay checks & population will only fuel more demand and the price for real estate can only go north.
Going back to the Googled numbers. If the population were to go up by even 50% by the year 2100, demand can only go up by the same number assuming that every single person earns and every single person takes charge of a home, because they are not making any more of the land! Is that true?
What if the city allows an FSI of 1:6 instead of 1:1? Area for living will go up by 6 times.
Will demand still surpass supply? Wow!
This brings us to the next statement – land is not scarce, but it is the shaky social infrastructure that is restricting. The one keyword that real estate swears by is ‘location’. If the FSI of ‘sought-after’ location were to be revised, it would send the prices crashing for the people who hold land banks or properties there. The same would not find favour with some vested interests. And the word location continues to discount the fact that life away from the city center is more at peace, more affordable and allows for wider landscapes to enjoy life in.
Unless you are at the Hawaiian Beach part of the article still, there is plenty land all around to urbanize, and at a much better price point with latest in offering. Plenty of developers are moving that ways. Plenty of people are identifying this reality. The closer you remain to reality, the easier it is to fund your realty aspirations.
35 Comments on "Land is scarce. Or just a civilization myth!"
Hello on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:02 pm
I think this person is pretty stupid.
forbin on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:13 pm
there is plenty land all around to urbanize
um, if we “urbanize” it what’s left to grow things
and whats left for the rest of nature
foolish person…..(sighs)
jjhman on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:14 pm
Just a minor point but not all of that land is suitable for agriculture. Inconveniently most of the land that is at risk of development is suitable for agriculture. So if we are down to 5 acres TOTAL for each individual (assuming the author’s data is correct)then perhaps two are suitable for agriculture. I’m pretty sure not much of the Arctic or the Himalayas is suitable. Maybe this fool thinks that we only need enough land for apartments and grocery stores.
Bring on the for sale signs, farmers!
Davy on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:29 pm
The world is awash in poor journalism and media. In fact it is coming to the point that much of what is written is trash. We are trashing the world and our minds. This person has no clue to the realities of what we are facing from a broad spectrum of issues. This person needs to google “dumbass” and reflect on that. It’s sad really, we have people in today’s world that live in a virtual reality and cannot grasp reality except through the lenses of fantasy. We have a population problem and a land problem. There is an order of magnitude too many people considering many of modern man’s support systems are in destructive decline. Land is being degraded and destroyed as valid life support daily and relentlessly. Combine those trends and you get an explosive potential for collapse
Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:30 pm
Putin has begun to give away land for free, 2.5 hectare to be precise.
In the Russian Far East that is.
https://www.rt.com/business/345022-russia-far-east-free-land/
Oh, and you need to live there for at least 5 years.
Perhaps an idea for Israelis in case the Clean Break program really goes even more wrong than it already has?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm
Don’t forget to bring your bearskin.
aidan on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 1:11 pm
This article reminds me of the climate science deniers who say that humanity should simply move North as our current regions succumb to drought and tidal flooding,
They seem to have no grasp of the fact that there is not much land at all in the Arctic and that even if the climate improved there is no soil.
Yes, the world is rapidly succumbing to stupidity.
penury on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 1:53 pm
“Reality” the name tells all, This person does not know the meaning of the word or the implication that facts do not always reveal truth
GregT on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 1:58 pm
I believe that the person who wrote this is a Real Estate ‘Guru’ from India penury.
makati1 on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 5:33 pm
A real education would end such bullshit articles, but the dumbed down populace doesn’t know any better. They do not know geography, math, science, history, or biology. They do have some knowledge of sex, drugs and internet use, but only enough for personal pleasure. Reality is a foreign language.
Boat on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 5:33 pm
In Houston they are building out an huge area. Homes of 600,000 and up in one zone. 500,000 in another, 400,000 in another and the poorer 300,000 in another. Ya’ll just worry about the wrong shyt. They are not divided by race bla bla bla. They are dividing by what you can afford. That determines who you live around.
There is another area where I am not sure 1 million will get you in the gate. Pretty large homes with their own security.
None of these homes are on more than an acre and most like 1/4 acre. Farming isn’t on their minds. Every morning you can see hundreds of Mexicans keeping perfectly manicured areas in perfect shape. ps ape, no flood zones.
Harquebus on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:54 pm
My first article has recently been published. I would appreciate your opinions which, I value.
http://theaimn.com/depopulate-or-perish/
Apneaman on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 12:37 am
American Cancer infects and kills more healthy tissue.
Widespread land losses from 2010 Gulf oil spill, study finds
“Dramatic, widespread shoreline loss is revealed in new NASA/U.S. Geological Survey annual maps of the Louisiana marshlands where the coastline was most heavily coated with oil during the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161122130040.htm
freak on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 2:38 am
Holy Marry Mother of God this Climate Change video is all telling of what kind of climate shit storm is in store for the earth and its inhabitants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MURuZ92yJYQ
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 5:40 am
Harque, great article and reminds me of something I would write about. Keep up the good work.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 6:14 am
I have come to the conclusion man is probably unable to devolve population and consumption but the issues are greater than that. First we have to admit population and consumption are the problem then we need to determine what if anything we can do. For those of you that think we should do something remember there are consequences for those actions. Actions that involve Daley’s “reductionism have consequences. Those consequences are lower economic activity and that impacts a global system that has minimum operating levels for continuity. What we need to tell people is we are in catch 22’s where no choice is good and all will reflect what the “Ecos” already has in store for us. That is a die off.
The best we can do is mirror the “Ecos” because everything is a reflection of her. What does this mirroring involve? Well we can acknowledge systems have balanced states and disturbed states. They have thresholds and break points. They have different operating levels once thresholds have been breached. The biggest humans are part of it and not exceptional by look within our collective “souls” on our humanness or sapience. George Mobus said “Knowledge of systemness is the hardest won knowledge there is. It includes not just ordinary knowledge, but wisdom as well – the knowledge of what ordinary knowledge to gain and how to use it.”
Probably the greatest effort we can make is come to some common understanding of ourselves and how we have failed as a species. That is called humility. That is asking what part we played in this and not what others did. It is reaching out in empathy as we look within. That is too “touchy feely” for many and that points to a flaw today of what is considered real manhood. In that regards we have far too many points of view at different levels of enlightenment. There is only one way and that is the truth. None of us can know the truth but we can get closer. What is getting closer to the truth mean when so many points of view are present globally?
Let’s at least admit what we have is wrong. The truth is not found through unrestricted markets and complete freedom of speech. This is a joke because there is corruption and power plays that pollute that process. We can no longer believe in free speech and free markets. We are not mature enough as a species to live by these rules. Not that this will change things except you as an individual can reject the current social narrative as a lie. A system based on these principals may work at the local level and maybe at the level of a small nation state but not what we have today. What does that mean then?
In my view we must decentralize and practice reductionism in competitive cooperation. We can try to cooperate within self-interest of our various groups. This may be possible once we go into an existential crisis of globalism. How this will be possible revolves around the common needs of peoples throughout the global arrangement to find solutions to a common existential crisis. The problem is now we are not really in crisis and the common thread is the opposite of reductionism. We are trying to inflate the world. Even our climate change activism is not trying to practice real reductionism. If you look at the results of what I call the “Party in Paris” it is merely a different direction of alternative affluence through unproven alternative energy strategies. These is no real talk of economic and population reductionism. That is the best we could do and it is a failure. So if we have a chance to do something it will be a narrow reentry window in a crisis.
The status quo may not survive a crisis. Without the status quo we will have some kind of die off. We must ask ourselves as grown-ups should we even allow the status quo to survive. Sometimes it is better to let something so bad just self-destruct and the sooner the better. It reminds me of calling in the artillery on your position when being overrun. Remember the scene in “Platoon”. That is a profoundly tough decision of playing God in a sense because it means allowing death of many innocent people without charity. It means turning your back on famine and civil wars. Let the fuckers kill themselves! Too bad we are interconnected because doing nothing will come back to us. Is it right to allow death? Should we then consider a hospice for humanity? Should we consider mass euthanasia policies? Is not the status quo a de facto mass euthanasia policy through negligence and default instead of a de jure civilization? “If you do not change your ways then you will die” says the doctor. I owned a bar for 4 years and I saw alcoholics kill themselves. So we can come to the conclusion of a species catch 22 or in other words an unavoidable bottleneck.
Maybe it is better we do nothing globally because actually it is likely we can’t do anything. Maybe in a crisis we can make some good decisions but likely not more than that. In this respect it comes back to the individual and small community. You can do something because this is the size and structure where humans evolved from. It is the natural state of harmony and where humans find their best sapience. What we have today at the global level is not normal human behavior. It is an extreme forms of the worst of what is human and we seem to love it by wanting more. Individually change and individually take action. Realize we have lost the game at the global level. Reject the status quo but realize you have no choice but to live in it. That then becomes a balancing act. If enough individuals change and take action it will affect the global that is if the right action is taken. Maybe there could be some structures to allow for small groups and individuals to take action. The problem is this is what we have now and the reason for all the polarization politics we see everywhere. In this respect I am talking to a select few of you who are enlightened and understand what I said above. You will have to practice the Tao of collapse just as was practiced in ancient China during the waring states. Life rhymes so no need to reinvent wisdom.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:13 am
“Obstacles To Trump’s “Growth” Plans”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-22/obstacles-trumps-growth-plans
“greater self-reliance “is the future of the world, ‘post-growth’, and post-globalization. Every country, and every society, needs to focus on self-reliance, not as some idealistic luxury choice, but as a necessity. And that is not as bad or terrible as people would have you believe, and it’s not the end of the world … It is not an idealistic transition towards self-sufficiency, it’s simply and inevitably what’s left, once unfettered growth hits the skids. Our entire world views and ‘philosophies’ are based on ever more and ever bigger and then some, and our entire economies are built upon it. That has already made us ignore the decline of our real markets for many years now. We focus on data about stock markets and the like, and ignore the demise of our respective heartlands, and flyover countries. Donald Trump looks very much like the ideal fit for this transition … What matters [here] is that he promises to bring back jobs to America, and that’s what the country needs … Not so they can then export their products, but to consume them at home, and sell them in the domestic market …There’s nothing wrong or negative with an American buying products made in America instead of in China.”
“There’s nothing economically – let alone morally – wrong with people producing what they and their families and close neighbours themselves want, and need, without hauling it halfway around the world for a meagre profit. At least not for the man in the street. It’s not a threat to our ‘open societies’, as many claim. That openness does not depend on having things shipped to your stores over 1000s of miles, that you could have made yourselves, at a potentially huge benefit to your local economy. An ‘open society’ is a state of mind, be it collective or personal. It’s not something that’s for sale.”
“In short, there is a real prospect that his ambitious economic “remake” may well be prematurely punctured by financial crisis….“Things are not what they were.” Complexity “theory” tells us that trying to repeat what worked earlier – in very different conditions – will likely not work if repeated later.”
“with the appreciating dollar and rising interest rate environment, growth from emerging markets as a whole will falter, since emerging markets have effectively leveraged their economies to Chinese growth. It used to be the case that they were closely tied to U.S. growth, but it is now China which dominates the EMs’ trade flows [i.e. without China growth, the EMs languish]. The question is, can America reboot its growth whilst China and the EMs languish? It is another structural shift, whereas heretofore, it was vice versa: without U.S. growth, the EMs and China languished. Now it is the converse.”
“In other words, unlike in the earlier Reagan times, more recently, the debt is producing no growth – but … well … just more debt, mostly….“In sum, self-sufficiency implies higher domestic costs and price rises for consumers.”
“For the record, a normalization of bond yields would be very healthy for the economy in the long-run, as it is necessary to reconcile the massive economic imbalances now in existence. However, President Trump will want no part of the depression that would run concurrently with collapsing real estate, equity and bond prices. Trump, to be fair, has said consistently throughout the election campaign that whoever won the Presidential campaign to take office in January would face a financial crisis. Perhaps he will not face the “violent unwind” of the QE and bond bubble as some experts have predicted, but many more – expect a “stagflationary bond crash.”
“This has major political implications. Trump is setting out to do no less than transform the economy and foreign policy of the U.S. He is doing this against a backdrop of many of the followers of the liberal élite, so angered at the election outcome, that they reject completely his electoral legitimacy (and, with the élites themselves staying mum at this rejection of the U.S. democratic process). Movements are being organized to wreck his Presidency (see here for example). If Trump does indeed experience a severe financial “unwind” at a time of such domestic anger and agitation, matters could turn quite ugly.”
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:20 am
“Major Foreign Policy Shift: Turkey Abandoning EU For SCO”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-22/major-foreign-policy-shift-turkey-abandoning-eu-sco
“Turkey’s gradual shift from the West to Eurasia and other partners is part of a broader process as the West gets weakened and divided. The very notion of “Western unity” is fading away. Unsurprisingly, as its relations with the West sour, Turkey is reaching out to other poles of power. Further progress on the way of Ankara’s to integration with the SCO will facilitate the multi-dimensional foreign policy to strengthen Ankara’s standing in the world.”
Cloggie on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:41 am
Now that Trump is in office, the rationale behind SCO could slowly evaporate, especially for Russia, if Trump delivers on detente with Russia. Russia wants to be in Europe, China was plan B.
http://russia-insider.com/en/china-fears-it-merely-russias-plan-b/ri15401
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:54 am
If I were Russia my first two immediate fears would be Europe and the US then longer term China. If Russia restores ties with the US (a big if) then it is likely there will be a cooling of integration with China. China is Russia’s longer term danger having a huge economy and population just to its south. A disruptive period could see a massive Chinese invasion into the Russian Far East. This invasion does not have to be by military it will be by facts on the ground of populations and resource needs. A similar situation is in Palestine now and the reason Israel is so worried. Populations determine boundaries as much as political structures.
Cloggie on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 9:04 am
Fresh Greg Hunter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5CUXp57Ces
“Even the FBI talks about the deep state”
Cloggie on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 3:14 pm
Not sure if California is considered “scarce land”, at least Alex Jones [x] has opined that California needs to be “cut loose” from the US:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAtFLnFSpPY&t=305s
[5:05]
Rationale: by “pushing California in the Pacific”, the Dems are for ever deprived of 55 secure electoral college votes. Another prominent candidate “to be pushed in the ocean” is New York.
Signature gathering for a CalExit has begun:
https://www.rt.com/usa/367752-calexit-california-secession-ballot/
[x] – Russian TV: Infowars Is The Most Influential Media Outlet In America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vg5hSY6A_c
Harquebus on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 5:18 pm
Davy.
Thanks mate.
Cheers.
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 5:35 pm
Cloggie, Russia is NOT going to turn away from China. Putin knows that the U$ is not to be trusted at all. And in 4 years the reverse could happen in the Us and the Cold War 2 is back. Besides the fact that Trump is a politician, not a saint.
It will all depend on what happens to NATO and the EU. IF they disintegrate, Russian/EU relations may improve, but don’t hold your breath. China, Russia and the SCO are growing, not shrinking.
TRADE is the main force behind the China/Russia/Iran union. The new Silk Road is the future and it is NOT going to go away. Europe and the U$ are already fading into the historical sunset.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 5:52 pm
Makati, have you spoken to Putin personally. Sounds like you know him on personal basis LMFAO
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:31 pm
Davy. I know enough to believe him over ANY American politician. He is out to protect Russia and Russian interests, not dominate the world. He wants trade. The U$ wants war as that is all they have left to offer the world.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:37 pm
makati, you believe what you want to think you know that really is just fantasy.
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Nov 2016 7:53 pm
Davy, I know what I know. You know what you are told. BIG difference. My knowledge comes from sources not USMSM. And from living in a part of the world more educated than yours. A LOT more.
Deny and laugh all you want. I’ll have the last laugh. That is the best one.
denial on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 9:15 am
Makati you are not being very honest to yourself…..with alliances and the FED you do not need war anymore—that is the gift of having a reserve currency and globalization and no country plays that card better than the u.s…how long can they play that card I don’t know…but I bet Duerte has a much different tone to trump than he did to obama…I can hear trump now China you want the philippines you can have that if we get…..don’t get mad it is just the reality we are in….
Hubert on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 6:54 pm
@Hello
99.9% of American Idiots are braindead. They will never know what hit them until the oil dries up.
Hubert on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 6:56 pm
Peak Everything; this planet will never reach 9 billion. We’re already reaching Peak Resource.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 7:10 pm
denial, I seem to understand reality better than you do. You actually believe: “with alliances and the FED you do not need war anymore”? I have some river front property in Death Valley I can let you have cheap. LMAO
The Fed likes to cause wars, not prevent them. Right now, they are warring with YOU and you do not seem to notice it. But, you will, soon.
And alliances are only good until they change. Ask Neville Chamberlain if his “alliance” with Hitler was real. Not long after, he was at war with Germany. The U$ was ‘allied’ with Russian not too many years ago, after the collapse of the USSR. Or did you forget? In the 30s, France, the USSR, and England were ‘allies’. Until they weren’t. Alliances shift like ice burgs in the Arctic. Always changing.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 7:18 pm
denial, The Philippines is NOT U$ property to ‘give to anyone’. Your American arrogance is showing again. The Philippines is moving away from the Imperial Chains and to a more open relationship with Asia, as it should. It is Asian, not American. China is just one part of the shift. Russia, is another. Japan is also going to move closer to the Philippines. Trade is the motivator, not false security. I like how people (mostly ignorant Americans) who have never been in Asia, like to bash it, and especially the Philippines. The Imperial propaganda/brainwashing is obviously working.
joe on Thu, 24th Nov 2016 10:49 pm
As the world recovers economically from colonialism, several world wars and a cold war (which was really cold because only because of nukes) America must begin to live in a world it never experienced. When China last dominated the Pacific Ocean the United States did not exist. The US should easily he able to live with China and come to an understanding and resolution vis a vis North Korea, however as usual American stubbornness has left it too late, North Korea probobly has a nuclear arsenal, so as a result the US must realise DPRK with write its own destiny now. On a sadder note, as well its almost certain that America will betray the Kurds and abandon them to keep the Turks happy even as they abandon democracy, thats why Iran wont quit its allience with Russia.
Gilles Fecteau on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 10:25 am
A better estimate of overpopulation would be the amount of arable land per animal to feed. The animnals include humans, cows, pigs, chicken … just to count the one to feed humans. You quickly reach the conclusion that if the majority of people were vegetarian, far more land would be available to feed them (it takes 10 time the land to produce a pound of beef protein than to produce a pound of vegetarian protein).
You also need land to sustain the biodiversity of the planet and absorb CO2.
Davy on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 11:07 am
Gilles, please do some more research. Where are all those veggies going to be grown? Are you saying let’s grow them on marginal grazing land? That dog won’t hunt. Animals need to be part of the mix but not industrial animals production at the level it is today. What is needed is more traditional animal husbandry. In the mean time we need less grain fed animals as well as less grain produced fuel. People need to be eating more grain instead. We need everyone who can to grow a garden of some kind.
None of this will make more than a dent in the problem of population overshoot. We will have to have a hybrid arrangement of industrial agricultural and permaculture until such a point that me make a decision to degrowth or we are forced into a die off. We are in an existential trap and being a vegetarian won’t make much of a difference. We are trapped in our own habits and wants and those attitudes and lifestyles took us down the wrong road.