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How can we manage Earth’s land?

Enviroment

Overpopulation, climate change, mass migration… our relationship with terra firma has never been more complicated. Could Earth’s land be an overlooked, increasingly precious resource?

From the sky, it looks like an entire city is adrift in the Indian Ocean. A forest of tower-blocks rise above the emerald-coloured water while just a handful of trees poke through the canopy of concrete.

For those living in Malé, the overcrowded capital of the Maldives, there is no choice but to build upwards.

Caged by the sea, they have no more land to spread onto, yet the city’s population has soared by nearly 52% since 2006. The last census in 2014 counted 158,000 people crammed into the city’s 2.2 sq miles (5.7 sq km) of space, and officials say the figure has since grown further.

“When people think of the Maldives, it is usually of a beautiful paradise with crystal clear lagoons and white sand beaches,” says Shamau Shareef, the city’s recently elected deputy mayor. “Malé is very different. We have very limited space and life is tough.”

Space is such a premium in Malé that pavements are often less than three feet wide, forcing pedestrians to walk in single file, while many streets have no sidewalk at all.

Land

Malé, capital of the Maldives, is emblematic of modern-day land issues: A small, increasingly urbanising space with a skyrocketing population (Alamy Stock Photo)

Rents have risen exorbitantly and, in some of the poorest areas, up to 40 people can be crammed into buildings with just 250 sq feet (23.2 sq metres) of space – about the same size as a small studio flat.

With so many people living under each others’ feet, crime, drugs and domestic violence have risen alarmingly while the city frequently runs out of water. An entirely new island has risen out of the sea from the city’s garbage.

“In the early 1990s the tallest buildings in the city were only two storeys high,” says Shareef. “Now the average height is eight storeys and some are 25 storeys high. People are coming here because this is where the health, education and jobs are, but overpopulation is leading to many socioeconomic problems.”

Although extreme, Malé is an example in miniature of something that is happening on a far larger scale around the world. With 83 million more people appearing on the planet every year, rising populations are placing increasing pressure on the land.

The UN’s latest estimates state that there are 7.6 billion people jostling for space on Earth at present and that number will rise to 9.8 billion by 2050. By the end of the century, their projections say there could be 11.2 billion people on our planet.

With 83 million more people appearing on the planet every year, rising populations are placing increasing pressure on the land

Each of those people will need somewhere to live, a place to work, fertile land to provide them with food. They will need water and energy to stay warm or to light their way at night.

They will want roads to drive on and places to park. For the lucky ones, there will be space for their pastimes and leisure activities.

But for all of them, there can be no doubt the impact they will all have on the land – and those impacts are managed – will be one of the grand challenges facing humanity in the coming century.

Land

Overcrowded Malé had to create an artificial island as a big landfill for the rubbish that threatens to overtake the tiny island capital (Credit: Getty Images)

Habitable vs uninhabitable land

At first, it can be easy to dismiss fears that mankind may one day run out of space as ridiculous. Physically, the land can easily accommodate 11 billion people – there are around 13.4 billion hectares of ice-free land (51.7 million sq miles) on the planet.

But large tracts of land remain virtually uninhabitable due to their climate or their remote location: Enormous tracts of Siberia are too inhospitable to be lived upon. And the huge landmass at the centre of Australia is too arid to support many people, meaning the majority of its population is clustered along its coastline.

Meanwhile, cities and urban areas, like Malé, cannot keep growing indefinitely. They are bound by the natural landscape that surrounds them, whether it’s ocean or mountains. The land that is habitable faces challenges, like crowded cities and growing populations.

“If you have that many people, there will obviously be a much greater demand for natural resources and food production,” says John Wilmoth, director of the UN’s Population Division. “But there has been a lot of misplaced attention that has tried to look at population control or limitation as a solution.”

Experts say it’s misguided to just focus on population numbers, and whether there’s enough space on the planet to fit everyone.

Land

Large swaths of Earth’s land is uninhabitable for agriculture or human settlement – and there’s no shortage of challenges facing livable land (Credit: Alamy Stock Photo)

“The countries where populations are growing the most are actually using the least of the Earth’s resources per person,” warns Jonathan Foley, executive director of the California Academy of Sciences who has spent his career studying the impact human civilisation has on the environment. “Those of us in the rich and developed world consume far more than our fair share.”

The cities and towns we live in account for less than 3% of the Earth’s total land area, but between 35% and 40% is used for agriculture. As populations grow, many fear that more land will be used up to grow more food. And land management has a lot to do with resource management – what eat, how we grow it, and how we eat it.

To feed the world’s growing population, a study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that between 2.7 million and 4.9 million hectares (10,400-18,900 sq miles) of additional land will be required. There are around 445 million hectares (1.7 million sq miles) thought to be suitable for growing crops left in the world.

The researchers predicted that increasing demand for food, biofuels, industrial forestry and the spread of urbanisation will result in this reserve of land being completely used up by 2050.

So in the 21st Century, how will be able to manage land to not only fit all the extra people, but also to fit all the crops that will feed the extra people?

Making room for farms

The bad news? The demand for new cropland and pastures for animals is already thought to have caused 80% of the deforestation taking place around the world today, wiping out large areas of rich biodiversity and trees that act as natural sinks for greenhouse gases.

But the good news? According to Foley, it does not have to be this way.

Land

Lots of land is devoted to farm land that grows crops that end up being wasted – 40% of the food grown in the world is thrown away, wasting land and resources (Credit: Getty)

“The way we use land right now is extremely inefficient,” he says. “So much of our land is being used to grow food for livestock – 75% of the world’s agricultural land is used for feeding animals that we then eat ourselves. About 40% of the food grown in the world is also never eaten by anybody – it is thrown away. That means all that land it is grown on is being wasted.”

So, a possible solution: eat less meat and throw less food away.

Already, “there is progress being made,” says Foley. “China is already talking about reducing meat consumption and there are efforts to reduce food waste in Europe and US.” Curbing consumption habits can lead to less land use on agriculture.

About 40% of the food grown in the world is also never eaten by anybody – it is thrown away. That means all that land it is grown on is being wasted – Jonathan Foley, executive director of the California Academy of Sciences

In wealthier parts of the world, however, our consumption extends far beyond just food.

Space for a growing middle class

Increasing prosperity in many parts of the developing world, along with countries like China and India, is leading to a burgeoning global middle class. It’s a group that’s expected to account for 4.9 billion of the population by 2030.

With each of these people buying refrigerators, mobile phones, televisions, computers and cars, the demand for energy is expected to double over the next two decades.

And in a place like Malé – a tiny capital with an exploding population – that’s a grand challenge to tackle.

“We need to be worrying less about whether we are going to be able to grow enough food or provide enough energy and look at the aftereffects of consumption,” argues the UN’s John Wilmoth. “If we have improvements in living standards around the world occurring as population is growing, they will multiply to have much a larger effect on the Earth and the environment.”

Exactly how the world will meet this demand in the face of efforts to reduce climate change could greatly affect how much land we have at our disposal. And that’s a problem for the highly dense population centres on Earth’s coasts.

Rising seas claim coastal land

Historically, trade has fuelled the rise of middle classes and wealth in coastal areas. That’s led many of those cities to be some of the most crowded on our planet.

A study by researchers at Kiel University in Germany and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK estimated that there were 625 million people living in low lying coastal areas in 2000. By 2060 they predict this will have soared to more than a billion.

But add in climate change, and things get a lot more complicated.

“The coast is a restricted space and so there is a lot of pressure on the environment and ecosystems there,” says Barbara Neumann, an expert on coastal risks and sea level rise at Kiel University who led the study.

“Sand dunes act like a natural flood barrier, for example. If we take them away we remove a lot of the protection against coastal storms and rising sea levels.”

Rising sea levels due to climate change are likely to put further pressure on these packed coastal regions, she warns. Island nations like the Maldives are particularly vulnerable to loss of land in this way. Miami in Florida is another famous example.

“Malé is just two metres above sea level,” explains Shareef. “We already have sea swells during the monsoon each year but climate change is going to make that worse.”

Further away from the coast, growing populations are spilling onto land that will leave them more vulnerable in the future.

Rising sea levels due to climate change are likely to put further pressure on these packed coastal regions

In Bangladesh, where 80% of the country is a flood plain, tens of millions of people are affected by vast floods that occur every few years. Suddenly, land is at a premium

Even in developed countries like the UK, pressure on housing has resulted in large scale developments on land known to be prone to flooding. In the past decade, flooding in these areas has caused damage that has stretched into billions of pounds.

“We need to balance the population growth and development with conserving the natural systems that protect us,” says Neumann. The low-lying Netherlands, for example, has tackled its problems with flooding by giving the water back some space to spill into. It is an approach that other countries, including the UK, have said they hope to follow.

But changing, turbulent weather patterns might not just affect our city’s own land. It could affect our neighbour’s, too.

Land

Rising sea levels due to climate change are causing more floods in populous, coastal cities like Miami, Florida, and gradually stealing coastlines (Credit: Getty Images)

Climate change leads to migration

Around 21.5 million people are forced to leave their homes due to weather-related disasters each year.

“Drought in northern Syria led to a mass migration of people from rural areas to cities like Aleppo and became one of the spark plugs for the terrible conflict we are seeing there now,” says Lloyd Axworthy, chair of the World Refugee Council and former foreign minister of Canada. With climate change also expected to exacerbate droughts, floods and storms, Axworthy warns the problem is likely to worsen.

Other countries are having to subsidise and support large populations whose own means of growing food or living has been diminished – Lloyd Axworthy, World Refugee Council

According to the UN Refugee Agency’s latest figures, 65.6 million people were forcibly displaced by conflict and persecution in 2016, around 300,000 more than the previous year and the highest number since World War Two.

“This not a one-off,” warns Axworthy. “There are big areas of land that are running out of the fundamentals of life. Many governments are so bad that they do nothing about this. This means other countries are having to subsidise and support large populations whose own means of growing food or living has been diminished.”

Land

Mass migration of refugees fleeing harsh climates, political turmoil and more strains resources in already crowded regions (Credit: Getty Images)

It means there are ever growing challenges to find space for the people uprooted by war, famine and drought. Of the people uprooted last year, 22.5 million sought refuge across international borders. Finding new homes for such large numbers of people is already proving difficult – just 189,300 refugees were admitted by other nations for resettlement in 2016. The majority remain housed in vast camps or living as stateless individuals, all of them requiring food, water and shelter.

Without land of their own to get these fundamentals of life, they have to rely on others to provide them. A list of factors, like war, famine and drought, complicate what countries like Greece and Uganda can choose to do with their land – an influx of refugees from Syria and South Sudan, respectively, have strained already thinly stretched natural resources.

‘A problem that does not recognise borders’

Back in Malé, and in many other places around the world, more mundane reasons than conflict and water shortages are cramming the land.

Access to amenities like healthcare, education and jobs have long drawn rural populations into cities. More than half of the world’s population now live in urban areas. Just like in Malé, this is putting a huge strain on relatively small patches of land.

City living also requires careful planning – while many in the world live relatively comfortable urban lives with running water, sanitation and waste disposal, cities in the developing world are blighted by huge slums where no such infrastructure exists.

Africa and Asia are urbanising faster than any other parts of the world. By 2020 Africa is expected to be our planet’s second most urbanised continent with 560 million people dwelling in cities while Asia will have 2.4 billion. Yet according to the OECD, urban infrastructure in Africa is failing to keep pace and overcrowding is rife.

“The challenge is not that there is not enough space, but that we are not thinking about where people will be and what quality of life they will experience,” says Joel Cohen, head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University. “Population growth is occurring most rapidly in the poorest countries where there are already slums. There are estimates that there could be an additional billion people living in slums by the end of the century.”

In short, every place as its own challenges.

In the cramped conditions of Malé, whose Maldives are famed for their natural beauty, nature has been squeezed almost completely out in its capital city. On top of all the other challenges we’ve already gone through, eco-friendliness is yet another bullet to add to the list.

“Twenty years ago we still had a lot of trees here,” says deputy mayor Shareef. “Now they have almost all been chopped down to make way for buildings.

And so on and so forth. Perhaps land’s pervasiveness on the planet, as well as its role as a basic building block of existence, is what invites such an array of issues.

The planet can certainly find space for many more of us to live on. But in the 21st Century, perhaps the real question we need to ask ourselves is who – and what – we want to share that land with.

bbc



27 Comments on "How can we manage Earth’s land?"

  1. onlooker on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 12:34 pm 

    By not being fruitful and multiplying

  2. Apneaman on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 12:39 pm 

    Cancers do not manage – they infect and consume and then die.

    million bottles a minute: world’s plastic binge ‘as dangerous as climate change’

    Exclusive: Annual consumption of plastic bottles is set to top half a trillion by 2021, far outstripping recycling efforts and jeopardising oceans, coastlines and other environments

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/28/a-million-a-minute-worlds-plastic-bottle-binge-as-dangerous-as-climate-change

    These Companies Plan to Expand Coal Power Worldwide by 43 Percent

    “Yet in 2017, more than 120 companies have plans to build new coal-fired power plants (or expand existing ones), increasing coal capacity by roughly 43 percent across the globe. That’s more than 840,000 megawatts (MW) of additional coal power.

    Some of those expansions are slated to occur in countries that don’t yet have any coal power, including Egypt and Malawi, likely locking them into at least 40 years of polluting infrastructure.”

    https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/28/these-companies-plan-expand-coal-power-worldwide-43-percent

    Air pollution limits in U.S. inadequate to prevent deaths

    “With the Trump Administration threatening to loosen air pollution controls, a new study is showing that even existing rules are causing tens of thousands of extra deaths in the United States each year.

    Researchers used 12 years of data – health records from nearly 61 million Medicare beneficiaries, combined with a massive databank of pollution readings – to link specific air quality levels to death rates.

    They found that for every increase of just 10 micrograms in small-particle pollution known as PM2.5, the death rate went up 7.3 percent. That’s the equivalent of 120,000 fatalities among people age 65 and older,”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-airpollution-usa-mortality-idUSKBN19J2V5

    If You’re A Cancer And You Know It Clap Your Hands…. CLAP! CLAP!

  3. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 12:52 pm 

    Give the 83 million new people a year,
    lots of guns and ammunition.
    They will have a war and kill each other.

    That’s better than having them throw a million bottles
    a minute into the ocean, to kill whales.

  4. Hubert on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 12:58 pm 

    Much of the Earth has already been destroyed. Look forward to more wars and chaos in the coming years.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4K4okVa7dU

  5. Lucifer on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 1:17 pm 

    The human population will never reach 11 billion, not unless there is some king of tech miracle, or some kind of help from God, which i can assure you all that the latter will not happen.

  6. Lucifer on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 1:21 pm 

    Even i make mistakes, i meant to say “some kind of tech”, not “king of tech” lol.

  7. rockman on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 3:18 pm 

    As touch on by some already: the question itself is very poorly worded: there is no “we”. At best there are hundreds of major communities with different goals, resources and hurdles. In reality those hundreds are broken down into thousands of discreet groups scattered around the globe. And in many cases one group’s goals conflict with those of many other groups.

    As long as such inherent competition exists there will never be a global “we”. Thus “we” will never solve any of the problems listed.

  8. bobinget on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 3:54 pm 

    “It’ll Go Right Under the Wall”

    Trump promises new petroleum pipeline to Mexico
    “President Trump on Thursday said he’s approved a new petroleum pipeline to Mexico as part of a broader plan to export American energy around the world.

    “It’ll go right under the wall,” Mr. Trump said of the new pipeline during a speech at the Department of Energy.

    His address coincides with the White House’s “Energy Week,” and the president used Thursday’s event to announce several new initiatives that he says are key to economic growth and kick-starting a “golden era of American energy.”

    Mr. Trump ordered a wholesale review of U.S. nuclear energy policy, and directed the Treasury to review possible financing of overseas power-generation plants that run on American coal.

    He also said the Department of Energy will approve two applications to export liquefied natural gas from facilities in Louisiana, and directed the Interior Department to create a new offshore oil-and-gas leasing program to oversee all energy exploration off America’s coasts.

  9. bobinget on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 4:08 pm 

    FORGET about the ME for a day or two. The real third world action is as close as your neighborhood CITGO.

    When China begins to set world oil prices, that’s when we begin to see genuine human suffering on a scale as never before. .

    If you think Putin-tang or Trump-ism style nationalism is repugnant, just watch.
    China has thousands of years of practice.

    While we kiss Saudi ass, China and Russia have scooped up the world’s biggest stash of (heavy) oil from under our very nose.

    Was that the plan all along Donald?

  10. Apneaman on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 4:51 pm 

    bobinget, no need for trump to dig tunnels when he can just lease the use of any one of thousands of drug tunnels the Cartel has already dug.

  11. Apneaman on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 4:57 pm 

    Great map included here depicting how denier tard states are going to be managed/man handled by AGW.

    As Climate Changes, Southern
    States Will Suffer More Than Others

    “They found that the impacts could prove highly unequal: states in the Northeast and West would fare relatively well, while parts of the Midwest and Southeast would be especially hard hit.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/29/climate/southern-states-worse-climate-effects.html

    It’ll be even worse than this depicts but many will be migrating away from the south in the very near future anyway.

  12. Apneaman on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 5:04 pm 

    OMG Mission: Greenland’s Ice Melting Faster Than Previously Thought (Video)

    “NASA’s aptly titled Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) project studies the extent to which warm ocean waters are melting glaciers from below — and it’s much faster than anyone expected.”

    https://www.space.com/37206-omg-nasa-mission-greenland-ice.html

  13. peakyeast on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 6:19 pm 

    going vegan. poluting less. more efficient.

    ANYTHING, but limit population growth !

  14. JuanP on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 9:40 pm 

    Lucifer “The human population will never reach 11 billion” I never say never. With a population of 7.6 billion now and growing by around 83 millions every year that day may come. I hope it doesn’t but it may. The inertia and momentum behind population growth are humongous and still growing.

  15. DerHundistlos on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 11:30 pm 

    “Great map included here depicting how denier tard states are going to be managed/man handled by AGW.”

    FINALLY, if this prediction holds true, justice may be served yet.

  16. DerHundistlos on Thu, 29th Jun 2017 11:45 pm 

    “Cancers do not manage – they infect and consume and then die.”

    CORRECTION: Cancers do not manage- they infect, consume, and continue growing until the host organism wastes away and dies.

    “It’s not in a tumor’s self-interest to steal nutrients to the point where the host starves to death, for this kills the tumor as well. Yet tumors commonly continue growing until the victim wastes away. A malignant tumor usually goes undetected until the number of cells in it has doubled at least 30 times from a single cell. The number of humans on Earth has already doubled 32 times, reaching that mark in 1978 when world population passed 4.3 billion. Thirty-seven to 40 doublings, at which point a tumor weighs about one kilogram, are usually fatal.”

    http://churchofeuthanasia.org/e-sermons/humcan.html

  17. Davy on Fri, 30th Jun 2017 3:28 am 

    “The map shows median estimates of economic damage per year in 2080 to 2099 under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Damage is calculated as a percentage of county G.D.P., factoring in agriculture, mortality, crime, labor productivity, coastal impacts and energy demand. Counties with negative damage (green) are projected to see economic benefits. In the chart, the ranges labeled “likely” refer to outcomes with a two-thirds chance of occurring.”

    Der Hund, what you didn’t maybe see from the map is that it is the time frame and high emissions scenario. You also may just default to a normal economy of average growth out another 60-80 years. This is a useful graph but typical of unrealistic projections. This map is not unrealistic because of the possible climate change effects. These effects will likely be worse as we are discovering recently. What is unrealistic is we will have an economy much like today. The global system’s shelf life is likely not that long. The graph looks great for an anti-American but the actual jest of the map is flawed because of its economic assumptions.

  18. Apneaman on Fri, 30th Jun 2017 5:19 pm 

    Scorching 129 Degree (F) Temps Hit Iran; Severe June European Heatwave Attributed to Climate Change; Satellite Data Confirms Rapid Global Warming

    “In a slew of climate change related news this week, Iran’s city of Ahvaz saw temperatures hit near the highest readings ever recorded on Earth”

    “129 F in Iran — Near Record for Globe, But Not a 35 C Wet Bulb Reading

    On Thursday, in Ahvaz, Iran, temperatures hit a blazing 53.7 degrees Celsius or 128.66 degrees Fahrenheit. These temperatures were just shy of the 54 C (129.2 F) global records in Mitribah, Kuwait on July 21, 2016 and in California’s Death Valley on July 30, 2013 identified by Chris C Burt of Weather Underground. The reading was also the hottest temperature ever recorded in Asia.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/30/scorching-129-degree-f-temps-hit-iran-severe-june-european-heatwave-attributed-to-climate-change-satellite-data-confirms-rapid-global-warming/

  19. Apneaman on Fri, 30th Jun 2017 5:32 pm 

    Consume, Screw, Kill

    The origins of today’s mass extinction

    https://harpers.org/archive/2014/05/consume-screw-kill/

  20. onlooker on Fri, 30th Jun 2017 7:26 pm 

    Climate Change’s Latest Gift: A Deadly Brain-Invading Worm Spreading Across Florida, Other States
    http://americannewsx.com/politics/climate-change-deadly-brain-worm-florida/

  21. JuanP on Fri, 30th Jun 2017 10:23 pm 

    Hi onlooker, I’ve been aware of the existence of this Nematode species for a couple of years. While there are no recorded infections in Florida yet, an invisible worm that you can ingest with your food, eats your brain, and is incurable is a very scary idea. My wife is a little obsessive since I first told her about their existence. 😉

  22. onlooker on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 6:29 am 

    https://kevinhester.live/2017/07/01/chose-one-of-three-dystopian-futures/
    David Suzuki, Professor Guy McPherson, and Kevin Hester give their take or where we’re at with our early stage runaway climate catastrophe.
    David Suzuki believes that in 20 years life won’t be worth living.
    Professor McPherson believes that there won’t be a human on the planet in 2025 and most of us and most complex life will be gone long before.
    I’m with Professor McPherson, as I defer to his award winning knowledge as an Evolutionary Biologist, his inherent honesty and the fact that there is not one dollar in this for him.
    Brickbats, slander, death threats, that’s his payment for speaking truth to power.
    Judge for yourself, prepare for the worst.

  23. onlooker on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 7:00 am 

    https://skepticalscience.com/Lee-commentary-on-Burgess-et-al-PNAS-Permian-Dating.html

    Alarming new study makes today’s climate change more comparable to Earth’s worst mass extinction

  24. Davy on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 7:06 am 

    “Professor McPherson believes that there won’t be a human on the planet in 2025”

    I follow him also onlooker but I find his 2025 too extreme. I would adapt that to say there won’t be humans some places on the planet by 2025.

  25. onlooker on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 7:14 am 

    https://phys.org/news/2013-10-climate-geological-instant.html
    New finding shows climate change can happen in a geological instant

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