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Page added on July 8, 2018

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Global Warming Could Be Double What Models Predict

Enviroment

An international team of researchers suggest that future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models

Global warming could be much worse than predicated by current climate models.

Researchers often use records of Earth’s past to predict changes in the future. A latest assessment of past warm periods shows that future global warming may be twice as warm as projected by climate models and sea levels may rise six meters or more with 2°C of warming.

A world that heats up by 2C is regarded as the limit for a climate-safe planet and 2015 Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold average global warming well below 2°C by reducing carbon emissions.

“Observations of past warming periods suggest that a number of amplifying mechanisms, which are poorly represented in climate models, increase long-term warming beyond climate model projections,” said lead author Prof Hubertus Fischer from University of Bern. “This suggests the carbon budget to avoid 2°C of global warming may be far smaller than estimated, leaving very little margin for error to meet the Paris targets.”

To make predictions, researchers looked at three past warm periods, the Holocene thermal maximum (5000-9000 years ago), the last interglacial (129,000-116,000 years ago) and the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3-3 million years ago). During those periods, the temperatures were 0.5°C-2°C warmer than the pre-industrial temperatures of the 19th Century.

The warming of the first two periods was linked to predictable changes in the Earth’s orbit, while the third period experienced increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The atmospheric carbon dioxide is also the main driver of the climate change today.

When researchers combined a wide range of measurements from ice cores, sediment layers, fossil records and other techniques, they were able to better predict future climate responses. Their result suggests that our today’s planet is warming much faster than any of these periods. Even if we curb carbon emissions, it would take centuries to millennia to reach equilibrium.

“Even with just 2°C of warming – and potentially just 1.5°C – significant impacts on the Earth system are profound,” said co-author Prof Alan Mix of Oregon State University.

“We can expect that sea-level rise could become unstoppable for millennia, impacting much of the world’s population, infrastructure and economic activity.”

i4u.com



26 Comments on "Global Warming Could Be Double What Models Predict"

  1. Shortend on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 1:18 pm 

    But, but, butt, Cheeto states its all a Chinese hoax! Come on, would TPTB be burning up all these fossil fuels and raising CO2 levels to heights never before human existence if it were not so…really now alarmists the Scientific Consensus be…sarcasm…

  2. MASTERMIND on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 1:54 pm 

    Putin is defiantly on top..

    https://imgur.com/a/C9URwgm

  3. Cloggie on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 1:55 pm 

    Peak oil supply unfortunately will not come to the rescue. Now we have to rely on human wisdom.

    Houston… etc., etc., etc.

  4. Cloggie on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 2:12 pm 

    “sea levels may rise six meters or more with 2°C of warming.”

    That would mean the end of Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam, a development no doubt anticipated with immense joy by certain right-wing circles in the Netherlands.

  5. Sys1 on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 3:14 pm 

    Sea levels is not really a problem for mankind survival.
    The elephant in the room is the collapse of food production.

  6. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 3:28 pm 

    This is not a problem currently—
    It is a predicament, my screwed friends and neighbors.
    Are we going to survive as a species?
    I think I’ll ask the passenger pigeon—

  7. Mac on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 4:19 pm 

    Earth hates us.

  8. onlooker on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 4:31 pm 

    In the end it will all be for naught. The planet will become inhospitable for our form of life pretty much. Few if any humans by 2100

  9. energy investor on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 5:00 pm 

    This report is scratching the bottom of the barrel of credibility. I hope they are right though because the alternative could be worse.

    TPTB will not allow the truth about the Pleistocene to be discussed and this cherry-picking of past inter-glacial periods ignores the fact that we are over-due to descend into a 90,000 year ice age if they are really interested in historical precedents.

    But don’t worry, the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum will show reinforced cooling this Northern winter and then you can scratch your heads about the cooling caused by AGW… lol

    In a world where the truth is obnoxious, I won’t argue the toss further, but suggest that if you really want to understand what is happening to cause the current rash of extreme weather events, just Google the terms “Grand Solar Minimum” and “Maunder Minimum”.

    The book by Prof Brian Fagan, “The Mini Ice Age” describes many of the extreme weather and volcanism events that occurred during Grand Solar Minimums. pretty much what is happening now.

    If you can’t be bothered, no biggie, you only have to wait until 2021 and watch as the AGW hoax goes the way of Y2K.

    “There is a season, turn, turn, turn…”

  10. Davy on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 6:02 pm 

    It’s pretty obvious that forcing the planetary carbon system can’t end well. We are now seeing potential positive feedbacks. The most worrying is the possibility of a runaway methane event. I suspect things will be worse than conservative estimates but timing and the actual climate scenarios could be very different.

  11. Makati1 on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 6:24 pm 

    “In the end it will all be for naught. The planet will become inhospitable for our form of life pretty much. Few if any humans by 2100”

    That’s how I see it, Onlooker. I doubt if most humans will make it past 2050.

  12. Charlie on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 8:09 pm 

    The ocean currents could become a startling influence. What about ocean temperature oscillation. What about the effects that Antarctic and Greenland glacier melt are presently having, not to mention the massive separation of millions-plus sq. mile sized ice fields breaking away from the Antarctic? Variables like these plus dozens of others.

  13. Sissyfuss on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 10:38 pm 

    Energy Incester, we’ve shot down your Maudlin Minimum before with research stating that the effect of such phenomena will truly be a minimum in the range of .25%. The Keeling Curve is showing levels that are consonant with prior events such as our current 6th Mass Extinction. The IPCC reports are politically edited to keep out ominous feedbacks that might scare off moneychangers such as yourself. Please go back to Forbes where you will be more comfortable spouting your non scientific findings to your fellow miscreants.

  14. Dave on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 11:26 pm 

    Well kids, Wring your hands all you want. The methane is releasing out of the permafrost. We could cut carbon burn now to zero and it will not make any difference. Enjoy what time we have left.

  15. Jayeshkumar Panchal on Sun, 8th Jul 2018 11:42 pm 

    A Drastic reduction in use of Energy or Fuel Consumption (as well as this Air Pollution, Heat and Carbon emission from these Automobiles that mostly operate in our Stop-and-Go City Traffic), could happen by substantially improving the Energy Efficiency of our Automobiles, ..By Eliminating their Energy Killing Friction Brakes and recycling their Kinetic or Braking Energy for powering a Completely Fuel Free Acceleration using the Same Energy stored in a Transmission. ..just like in a pull-back Toy Car!. ..Trrrr (= Braking Action), ..Vroom (= A Free Acceleration!).

    Our Automobiles made a Huge Energy Mistake right from their creation more than a century and half ago. The Mistake of not recovering their Kinetic Energy while braking and using that same Energy for powering their next Acceleration, and instead wasting away all that Kinetic Energy as Heat in those Friction Brakes and using Huge amount of New Energy, Engine Power and Fuel for their Next Acceleration. This Simple and Silly but Huge and Historic Energy Mistake made more than a Century and half ago, or right from the beginning has unfortunately remained till date in all our Automobiles, even after a Century of Motoring and many Oil Crisis and Oil Wars, as also this huge Air Pollution, and the Climate Change and Global Warming; and is sadly seen being repeated even in our New Energy or Green vehicles, such as the Electric, Plug-in, Hybrid and Hydrogen vehicles (with even the Latest of Electric Cars seen with those Energy Killing Friction Brakes!, ..that too on all 4 wheels!).

    A simple mistake that could have been avoided right from the beginning of the Evolution of our Automobiles, by correctly following the Laws of Motion. ..or corrected even now, by adopting a Simple Energy Mechanism that can recover the Braking Energy, and use that same Energy for the Next Acceleration. A Completely Energy, Fuel and Pollution Free Acceleration of our Automobiles by using only the Braking Energy that is Recovered and Stored in a Transmission!. ..just like in a Pull-back Toy Car!. ..Trrrr (= Braking Action), ..Vroom (= A Free Acceleration!).

    As per the Newton’s Laws of Motion, Acceleration is Free!, if most of the Kinetic Energy is Recovered while Braking and reused for the Next Acceleration; and Velocity is Free if the Acceleration is Not required; or that only a little Energy or Power is needed for Vehicles to go at Constant Speeds (Energy or Power still needed to overcome the Air Resistance, Tyre Drag and other Friction). Our Automobiles need only 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or Less amount of New Energy, Engine Power and Fuel, by correctly following the Laws of Motion; i.e. by eliminating those Energy Killing Friction Brakes, and adopting a simple energy mechanism like that of a pull-back Toy Car!. Now if our Automobiles can recover 80-90% of Braking Energy, they would need only 10-20% of Engine or Motor power for their Next Acceleration, with rest of the Power coming from the Energy Stored in a Transmission!. (A Unique Transmission Mechanism that could make all this possible, was shown at Autoexpo2000, New Delhi. ..18 years ago!).

  16. Cloggie on Mon, 9th Jul 2018 1:05 am 

    Now if our Automobiles can recover 80-90% of Braking Energy, they would need only 10-20% of Engine or Motor power for their Next Acceleration, with rest of the Power coming from the Energy Stored in a Transmission!. (A Unique Transmission Mechanism that could make all this possible, was shown at Autoexpo2000, New Delhi. ..18 years ago!).

    Volvo says: 25% better mileage

    http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/154405-volvo-hybrid-drive-60000-rpm-flywheel-25-boost-to-mpg

    In the UK they experiment with buses and flywheels:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2014/jan/27/flywheel-hybrid-flybrid

    Having said that, flywheels (alone) are not going to save the probleem. The shared autonomous, publicly owned car would be far more effective.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/05/26/autonomous-driving-with-volkswagen-moia/

  17. Dredd on Mon, 9th Jul 2018 6:41 am 

    An international team of researchers suggest that future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models

    One reason is that acceleration is not a popular subject (too scary).

    Models need to begin to use TEOS-10 when analyzing climate impact on oceans (The World According To Measurements – 15).

  18. deadly on Mon, 9th Jul 2018 6:52 am 

    global warming is real

  19. peakyeast on Mon, 9th Jul 2018 8:47 am 

    @Cloggie: Denmark experimented with flywheel busses about 30 years ago. It was not a success even though they recuperated 75% of the braking energy.

  20. pointer on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 5:17 am 

    And here in the eastern US, we’re anxiously waiting for a summer heat wave.

  21. Joe Neubarth on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 8:37 am 

    The simple fact of the matter is that at a Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) of 17 C, humanity goes extinct.

    Nobody will be here to care what happens to ocean level then.

  22. Joe Neubarth on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 8:50 am 

    We could reach 17 C GAST within a dozen years. In the last 40 years, Planet Earth went from 13.8 C GAST to 14.8 C GAST. Approximately one degree in 40 years and that was with tremendous Volcano belching eruptions of Sulfur Gas in 1982 (El Chichón) and 1991 (Mt. Pinatubo) that set us back nearly half a degree in warming. Without those two volcanic eruptions, we would be up to about 15.3 C GAST right now.

    Water Vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas) is increasing in the atmosphere along with CO2, CH4, N2O and 30 other Greenhouse Gases. Our rate of GAST increase is going to soar and we will be dead very soon.

  23. Davy on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 9:15 am 

    Joe, not agreeing on what you said or disagreeing, I personally think your timeline is too drastic in regards to the situation of the Sun and natural negative feedbacks that are going to influence how quickly warming happens. Systematically we may end civilization sooner than many think if GAST ends modern Agriculture as we know it. In this scenario our ability to force the climate will be curtailed with the end of modern civilization through catastrophic collapse long before climate makes the world unlivable for higher order mammals.

  24. ERR on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 10:22 am 

    Here they denounce denialist lies: http://naukaoklimacie.pl/ (+Google translate)
    Own scientific advice. Imitate !

  25. GregT on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 12:36 pm 

    “In this scenario our ability to force the climate will be curtailed with the end of modern civilization through catastrophic collapse long before climate makes the world unlivable for higher order mammals.”

    Somebody obviously hasn’t figured out what “catastrophic runaway greenhouse event” means.

    “The rapidly warming Arctic is already emitting methane from all the above sources.​​ As global warming is committed to increase and Arctic warming increases faster, we are now in a runaway planetary emergency situation.”

    https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/runaway.html

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