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EU Coal Plants ‘Should all Close by 2030’

Enviroment

EU countries should close all of their coal plants by around 2030 if they want to stick to the Paris Agreement on climate change.

This is the conclusion of a new report by research non-profit Climate Analytics. The cheapest way to meet Paris targets is to replace EU coal power with renewables and energy efficiency, it says.

This 2030 timeline is in line with planned phaseouts in the UK, Denmark, Finland and Portugal. The Netherlands and France are also discussing an end to coal. For Germany and Poland, however, a 2030 phaseout would be a significant challenge.

Carbon Brief has mapped the year when each individual coal plant across the EU should close, in order to stick within this overall, Paris-compliant 2030 timeline, according to the new analysis.

Paris goal

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit warming to well-below 2C above pre-industrial temperatures and to pursue efforts towards a 1.5C limit. The Climate Analytics study takes this to mean an 85% chance of staying below 2C and a 50% chance for 1.5C.

To meet this goal, the whole world will need to stop using coal power by 2050, the study suggests. Only plants that fit carbon capture and storage (CCS) equipment would be able to stay open.

Paola Yanguas Parra, a lead author of the report, said in a statement:

“We find the cheapest way for the EU to make the emissions cuts required to meet its Paris Agreement commitments is to phase out coal from the electricity sector, and replace this capacity with renewables and energy efficiency measures.”

The last unabated coal-fired power station in the EU should close by around 2030, the report says. This is much earlier than the expected closure dates of many existing coal plants. Some EU member states are still building new schemes.

Under the Paris deal, the study says EU coal plants should emit no more than 6.5 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) by 2050. If no action is taken and these existing coal plants are allowed to run until the end of their normal life, then the EU will emit 85% more than this limit.

There’s a lot going on behind this coal phaseout timeline. First, it is based around the assumption that meeting the Paris temperature limits is actually possible. This is far from certain. To do so will probably require so-called negative emissions technologies to suck CO2 from the air.

Second, the coal timeline is the result of a combination of uncertain modelling techniques. You can read more about how this was done in the Climate Analytics study. For now, let’s take the timeline as a given.

Closing coal

At present, there are more than 300 coal plants operating across the EU. Germany and Poland account for half the total, as the chart below shows. There are no coal plants in Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia.

Coal plant capacity and age structure across the EU. Left: capacity in each member state. Right: age structure of the EU fleet. Source: EU Coal Stress Test, Climate Analytics.

Coal plant capacity and age structure across the EU. Left: capacity in each member state. Right: age structure of the EU fleet. Source: EU Coal Stress Test, Climate Analytics.

Most EU coal plants are nearing the end of their normal life, with many in excess of 40 years old. However, there is also a group of newer coal plants built within the past 10 years, particularly in Germany, Poland, Italy and the Netherlands.

Newer plants could continue running into the 2050s or 2060s, given the average 46-year life of a coal unit. Unless these plants are retired early, the report says “…emissions will be locked into the system longer than what would be consistent with the EU’s GHG emissions reduction targets”.

The chart below shows CO2 emissions from EU coal plants compared to emissions pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement or a less ambitious 2C goal.

Emissions from current, planned and announced EU coal capacity (grey and black areas) compared to a Paris pathway (yellow line). A 2C path is also shown (grey line). Source: EU Coal Stress Test, Climate Analytics.

Emissions from current, planned and announced EU coal capacity (grey and black areas) compared to a Paris pathway (yellow line). A 2C path is also shown (grey line). Source: EU Coal Stress Test, Climate Analytics.

Emissions are clearly too high, but when should each plant retire? Climate Analytics has worked out a “science-based shutdown schedule” for each of the stations. It uses two approaches: the first closes the least carbon-efficient coal units first; the second closes the least profitable units first.

You can see the shutdown dates for each plant in the interactive map at the top of the page. The dates in the map are based on the carbon efficiency approach.

Coal challenge

The schedule should pose no problem for the UK, which has already announced plans to close all remaining coal plants by 2025. A consultation on how to do this closed on 8 February. In a joint response, 13 NGOs say closure should be brought forward to 2023.

Similarly Denmark, Portugal, France, Finland and the Netherlands are all either considering or making firm plans to close coal before 2030. (A decision in the Netherlands has been put off until after the 15 March general election).

The most significant challenge to the 2030 schedule comes in Germany, Poland and eastern Europe. Climate Analytics says most Bulgarian, Romanian and Hungarian coal plants should close by 2021. Most coal in Czechia would also need to close before 2025.

Poland and Germany face the highest hurdle, because they are starting from the highest base. Germany has 54 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity while Poland has 32GW, jointly making up around half of the EU total of 168GW.

In Germany, a debate is already underway over how, when or whether to phase out coal. Yet even NGOs are only talking about a phase out by 2035, some five years slower than today’s report recommends. Government officials say capacity should only be halved by 2030.

In Poland, the governing Law and Justice party rose to power in 2015 after a campaign that pledged to defend the coal industry, which supplies more than 80% of the country’s power.

Its state-owned coal sector was in financial turmoil last year and, more recently, the International Energy Agency said the country should reduce its reliance on the fuel.

Conclusion

If the EU is to bring a rapid end to coal power by 2030, as set out by today’s report, it is not only national governments that will need to change course. Climate Analytics has a list of EU policies that will also need reform.

This includes the EU Emissions Trading System, currently being debated in the European Parliament, and EU rules for renewable energy through the 2020s, due to be finalised over the next few years.

 

Carbon Brief



43 Comments on "EU Coal Plants ‘Should all Close by 2030’"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 7:07 am 

    In the Netherlands the situation is such that the government wants to move much faster with renewable energy than the public is ready for. Although everybody is in favor of renewable energy and getting rid of fossil fuel, there is also a strong not-in-my-backyard attitude. So the only solution is setting up wind farms in the North Sea.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/netherlands-sustainable-by-2030/

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/08/offshore-wind-40-cheaper-by-2023/

    Dutch deplorables against wind energy (in their back yard):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvn7N50m8Ek

  2. Midnight Oil on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 7:13 am 

    Maybe the title should read, “Human die off will cause EU Coal Plants to Shut Down by 2030″…. These futurists have a fantasy of Rainbows and Lollipops with Unicorns.
    I BELIEVE so it is so….listen to the BBC on the radio…claimed humans will peak to 12 BILLION…so we can NOT waste food!!!
    The person claimed that if we don’t there will be plenty for everyone!!!….so are can March on to maybe 15…20 Billion
    Why even bother????

  3. curlyq3 on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 10:03 am 

    Collectively, Humanity has no more capacity to change it’s behavior than a colony of yeast.

    curlyq3

  4. Nony on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 10:25 am 

    Germany has increased CO2 emissions and coal burning. That’s because they shut down their nuke plants.

    You can argue if that was right or wrong. But in fact it is what happened.

  5. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 10:38 am 

    There are 2,100 new coal plants being planned worldwide — enough to cook the planet
    Jul 9, 2015

    “Since 2000, developing countries like China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia have been constructing coal-fired power plants at a staggering pace:”

    “Let’s start with the first point — there are at least 2,177 coal units currently on the drawing board around the world. Of those, 557 are actually under construction. The rest are in various planning stages:”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/7/9/8922901/coal-renaissance-numbers

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAzAucMOE0s

  6. dave thompson on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 10:43 am 

    Check out what global dimming is and the effect it creates.

  7. GregT on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 11:03 am 

    “In the Netherlands the situation is such that the government wants to move much faster with renewable energy than the public is ready for.”

    There is no such thing as renewable energy cloggie. As long as you keep spouting this nonsense, your message itself will continue to be non-sense.

  8. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 11:25 am 

    It amazing how so many educated, over privileged white folks reject scientific findings. Not AGW denial, but denial of human nature which is fixed.

    Europe and N America can cut all the carbon they want, but, if economical, others will just fill that niche – it’s evolutionary kids.

    They’ll also lie like dirty dogs too (who doesn’t?)

    China underreporting coal consumption by up to 17%, data suggests

    Revelation may mean China has emitted close to a billion additional tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/china-underreporting-coal-consumption-by-up-to-17-data-suggests

    ………………………………………..

    ” Living organisms are required by the Second law of thermodynamics (a law like gravity) to deplete (dissipate) available energy (exergy) in order to survive and reproduce. In the discipline of open system thermodynamics, living organisms are called “dissipative structures” because they “dissipate” energy.”

    “Self-replication (or reproduction, in biological terms), the process that drives the evolution of life on Earth, is one way a system dissipates an increasing amount of energy over time. As Jeremy England put it, “A great way of dissipating more is to make more copies of yourself.”

    “Not only are human societies never alone, but regardless of how well they control their own population or act ecologically, they cannot control their neighbors’ behavior. Each society must confront the real possibility that its neighbors will not live in ecological balance but will grow its numbers and attempt to take the resources from nearby groups. Not only have societies always lived in a changing environment, but they always have neighbors. The best way to survive in such a milieu is not to live in ecological balance with slow growth, but to grow rapidly and be able to fend off competitors as well as take resources from others.”

    http://www.dieoff.org/

    India & China combined have over 2.5 billion hungry “dissipative structures” and growing. They all want to live like us. What’s the end game?

  9. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 11:39 am 

    There is no such thing as renewable energy cloggie. As long as you keep spouting this nonsense, your message itself will continue to be non-sense.

    The whole world calls solar panel and wind energy renewable energy.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

    Renewable energy is energy that is collected from renewable resources, which are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat.[2] Renewable energy often provides energy in four important areas: electricity generation, air and water heating/cooling, transportation, and rural (off-grid) energy services.

    The very fact that you stubbornly on the basis of lacking education erroneous think otherwise is really your problem. The world of renewable energy couldn’t care less.

    For the 100st time: show me a link from a respectable academic source explaining why renewable energy is necessarily an extension of fossil fuel. You and I know that such a study doesn’t exist, but you keep spouting your uninformed nonsense, just because you are too stubborn to admit your errors in the past.

  10. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 11:41 am 

    They’ll also lie like dirty dogs too (who doesn’t?)

    But you are not of them, eh, cancer monkey from the Alberta oil patch and car parts sales man?

  11. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 11:42 am 

    Greg, what is your education anyway?

  12. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 12:00 pm 

    ” A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again.”

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2017/02/no_author/californias-megafloods-past/

    It is obvious that California was a very early adopter of climate change. The Golden State was always a little more progressive than the rest.

  13. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 12:43 pm 

    clog, what’a your point? Did California, in 1861 have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure to prevent such flooding? No, but they do today. Another one of your bunk comparisons, like the one about some wild fire from the 1800’s. Lying dutch sack of shit. Why isn’t Holland under water right now? Because they have spent centuries engineering their way out of it and have spent many billions in the last decade or so to keep the anthropogenic sea level rise at bay.

  14. GregT on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:07 pm 

    “show me a link from a respectable academic source explaining why renewable energy is necessarily an extension of fossil fuel.”

    Show me one example of a large scale alternate electric power generating system that does not have any inputs from fossil fuels.

  15. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:10 pm 

    For every 1 C increase in global warming the atmospheric moisture increases by 7%. It’s called evaporation and the hydrological cycle. Apparently they don’t teach it in Holland. Human misbehavior has increased warming by 1.2 C since 1880.

    Yabut “climut alwees changes”. Whoever said it didn’t? Not any scientists – just retard deniers. Provide a link to the scientific paper titled “Climate never changes”.

    AGW does not make things, it makes things worse. You know like rain bombs due to 7% + moisture in the atmosphere and wildfire season starting in late January because much of the moisture that used to be in the ground and plants is now in the atmosphere getting ready to Rain Bomb Houston or California or whomever. In addition, water vapor is also has a powerful greenhouse effect. It’s a vicious circle know scientifically as a positive self reinforcing feedback loop.

    At Least Three Die as Storm Socks Southern California, Flooding Freeways

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/two-die-storm-socks-southern-california-flooding-freeways-n722751

    Epic Storm Pounds Southern California With Heavy Rain, High Wind and Huge Waves

    “The winter wave energy equaled or exceeded measured historical maximums along the West Coast, corresponding to extreme beach erosion across the region. The waves that attacked our coast, generated from storms across the North Pacific, were exceptional and among the largest ever recorded. But the lack of rainfall means that coastal rivers produced very little sand to fill in what was lost from the beaches, so recovery has been slow.”

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/epic-storm-pounds-southern-california-with-heavy-rain-high-wind-and-h

    Even the desert dwellers are getting Rain Bombed these days.

    Saudi Arabia hit by mass FLOODING as ‘apocalyptic’ storm sweeps desert

    FLOODS have swept across the Middle East as record-breaking rainfail and an ice blast has alarmed several Arab countries.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/769079/Saudi-Arabia-Middle-East-apocalyptic-weather

  16. BobInget on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:12 pm 

    SIDE BAR:

    This just in;
    China curtails N. Korean coal imports.

    NK gets most ‘hard currency’ from coal exports.

    Two factors here; The West will be led to believe China is pressing NK to curtail its nuclear and missile programs.
    There’s more to the story..

    China Can Buy Coal Cheaper Elsewhere.

    What’s the point in paying more for NK coal when government blows it all on building nuclear weapons and ICBM’s. Better from China’s POV for NK to buy Chinese consumer goods, food etc.

    China will continue to burn more coal yearly till 2025.

  17. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:20 pm 

    CHICAGO WEATHER: WEEKEND WARM-UP BRINGS RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES

    http://abc7chicago.com/weather/weekend-warm-up-brings-record-breaking-temps/1761204/

    Rain Bombs, wildfires, high temperature records, heatwaves, droughts, etc are happening all over the world in frequency and severity.

    https://youtu.be/tfMljH24G-I

  18. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:37 pm 

    MIDDLE-EAST
    Man taking selfie among seven dead in Iran storms

    “A man taking a selfie after an Iranian dam burst was among at least seven people killed as floods, avalanches and dust storms gripped the country, state media reported Saturday.”

    “Even as downpours gripped much of the south, residents of some areas near the Iraqi border were praying for rain as some of the worst dust storms in years sent hundreds to hospital with respiratory problems.

    The dust level in the air was 18 times the normal levels, officials in Khuzestan province said.”

    “Freak weather has swept though much of the Gulf, normally renowned for its deserts and searing heat. Snow fell in the hills of the United Arab Emirates as high winds forced the cancellation of a stage of cycling’s Tour of Dubai.
    This week torrential train disrupted every day of the Qatar Open women’s tennis tournament.
    The seasonal dust storms in southwest Iran have been intensifying for years as prolonged drought has triggered increasing desertification, not just in Iran but also in neighbouring Iraq and in Saudi Arabia beyond.”

    http://www.arabnews.com/node/1056091/middle-east

  19. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:41 pm 

    Brazil races against time to save drought-hit city, dying crops

    “CLIMATE CHANGE

    Climate change has worsened the droughts in Brazil’s northeast over the last 30 years, according to Eduardo Martins, head of Funceme, Ceará state’s meteorological agency.

    Rainfall has decreased and temperatures have risen, increasing demand for agricultural irrigation just as water supplies fell and evaporation accelerated.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-drought-idUSKBN15W1HP

  20. Anonymous on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:45 pm 

    Greg, clogtards definition of ‘respectable’ academic source is ‘anyone that happens to support my fake narrative’. academic or not, he hardly cares.

    Speaking of academics, clogtard disagrees (denies) every respectable academics conclusion that humans industrial pollution is driving climate change. So if you provide him with what hes asking for (not hard, since lots of ink has been spilled on how ‘renewable’ equipment is actually produced, hell do, guess what?, deny that too. Nor is clear that he would pay such a source any more attention than he does respectable academic climate researchers conclusions either, which is like, pretty much all of them. The only ‘respectable academics clogtard pays any attention to on that issue, are the creationists hired by places like the heartland institute and the Kock Brothers.

    I think academics have terms to describe clogged arteries behavior.

    -Selective reasoning
    -Selection bias
    -Bias confirmation.

    The fact he goes to such lengths to deny the simply reality that our entire energy system is under-written by FF, means, you are just wasting time with him.

    In case you haven’t heard cloggo, denial is not a river in Egypt.

  21. BobInget on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:46 pm 

    I’m convinced, water, too much or too little will be the
    ‘tide’ that convinces all but a tiny minority that Climate Change is not only real but human caused.

    First on any sane government agenda should be infrastructure preparation. Forget Russian and US spying. A distraction. Genuine reasons for
    impeachment are all about cynical climate change denial. ‘they know better’.

    It’s being said DJT White House is in disarray not seen since WaterGate.
    There are two ways for that Trump Administration
    to distract attention from it’s current crisis.

    1) Come clean. Tell a likely version of truth both
    Republicans and Dems can live with. Trump resigns ‘for health reasons’ and Pence takes over as in 25th Amendment.
    DJT is being blackmailed for reasons less important then survival of the planet. Six US intel agencies have evidence. The trick now will be for DJT to step aside without causing some sort of lupin uprising.

    2) Worst case, if permitted, Trump may send (more)
    troops into Syria and Iraq directly confronting Russia..
    If Putin does release tapes of DJT peeing on Russian prostitutes, DJT will simply call it ‘fake news’.
    Blackmail and hundreds of American lives, over.

  22. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 1:48 pm 

    https://twitter.com/mike_58stingray/status/832404112113278979

  23. makati1 on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 3:14 pm 

    Cloggie, so it snowed in Chicago. Been doing that for, oh, a few hundred thousand years at least. Proves that winter still happens in the north.

    What is you point?

  24. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:07 pm 

    That the winter still happens in the north.
    (And that Chicago sucks)

  25. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:07 pm 

    mak that’s just how clog lies – by implication. He got nuthing.

    Windsor gets ‘taste of spring’ with record-setting temperatures

    http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/windsor-shattters-record-temperatures

  26. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:08 pm 

    Cleveland breaks high temperature record of 62 degrees previously set in 1981

    http://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/index.ssf/2017/02/cleveland_breaks_high_temperat_2.html

  27. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:10 pm 

    Second straight day with record high temperatures Chicago area-wide

    http://wgntv.com/2017/02/18/saturday-second-straight-day-with-record-high-temperatures-chicago-area-wide/

  28. joe on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:11 pm 

    A guy from Holland, the heroin, junkie capital of slumland aka northern Europe ripping on the Chicago wtf does he know about Chicago, I bet if you went there you’d shit your pants you bitch.

  29. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:12 pm 

    It’s February, and Detroit got warmer than Los Angeles today

    http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/2017/02/18/metro-detroit-hits-record-high-65-degrees/98095608/

  30. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:13 pm 

    Friday’s Twin Cities high of 63 sets record for Feb. 17

    http://www.startribune.com/warmest-day-of-the-year-will-be-a-record-setter/414059953/

  31. onlooker on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:15 pm 

    http://www.sciencealert.com/oklahoma-hit-temperatures-of-100-fahrenheit-in-the-depths-of-winter
    Oklahoma Just Hit Temperatures of 100 Fahrenheit in the Depths of Winter

  32. makati1 on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:16 pm 

    Ap, I just noticed that my home town in PA is 68F today. I am 72 years old and I do not remember it EVER being anywhere close to that hot there in the middle of February. Normally, this is the coldest part of the year with zero and minus temps possible. And maybe several feet of snow.

    Yes, I know. Cloggie gives us older people a bad name. Must be something in the water there. lol

  33. onlooker on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:24 pm 

    Hey but lest we be complacent in the States with this winter, I read a forecast some time ago related to AGW, that predicted the polar vortex would be intruding to the US in March. Crazy weather

  34. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:36 pm 

    Mak, there’s plenty of other record highs – I just can’t list them all.

  35. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 4:36 pm 

    A guy from Holland, the heroin, junkie capital of slumland aka northern Europe ripping on the Chicago wtf does he know about Chicago, I bet if you went there you’d shit your pants you bitch.

    2016:

    Deaths in Chicago: 746
    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/2016-chicago-murders/explore-data

    Deaths in entire Holland: 108
    http://www.ad.nl/nieuws/2016-telt-laagste-aantal-moorden-sinds-1973~a7bcba99/

    The Chicago link includes mugshots victims. No surprises here.

    Slum, Holland? ROFL

  36. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 5:00 pm 

    Speaking of academics, clog disagrees (denies) every respectable academics conclusion that humans industrial pollution is driving climate change. So if you provide him with what hes asking for (not hard, since lots of ink has been spilled on how ‘renewable’ equipment is actually produced, hell do, guess what?, deny that too. Nor is clear that he would pay such a source any more attention than he does respectable academic climate researchers conclusions either, which is like, pretty much all of them. The only ‘respectable academics clog pays any attention to on that issue, are the creationists hired by places like the heartland institute and the Kock Brothers.

    Jeez, you need a lot of text to obfuscate that you are completely unable to provide me with a link of a serious scientist who claims that for the long term developing/installing renewable energy sources is futile because they are an extension of fossil fuel, so when fossil runs out (many centuries from now), renewable energy sources will go with it.

    Ah well, at least you didn’t quote Chief Seattle, it’s a start.

    Regarding climate change, I deny nothing what can be verified on the thermometer. And I’m open for the possibility that the 1-2 Celsius increase could me man made. And then it stops.

    Show me one example of a large scale alternate electric power generating system that does not have any inputs from fossil fuels.

    Well that’s impossible because we are in the middle of the transition. Take pioneer Denmark:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Denmark

    Total renewable energy share consumed electricity 2015: 55%.

    Ten years earlier it was 29%.

    So that is an average increase of 2.5% per year. So the remaining 45% will take another 18 years and the transition will have been completed. Just like that. That’s what Denmark wants, that’s what the EU wants and this is what is going to happen. If we can have 55%, we can have 100%, it is that simple.

    Here an article about phasing out fossil fuel towards 100% renewables. Not a hint of principle problems with that conversion:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out

    Because they don’t exist.

    And just in case there are come niche applications where you need fossil fuel, you can always convert electricity into combustible material:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_to_gas

    Not that the True Believers of the Chief Seattle Congregation are ever going to be convinced by scientific considerations.

  37. GregT on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 5:05 pm 

    We received our first snowfall of the winter here at the beginning of December. Since then we have received 145cm of snow, and there is still close to 30cm left on the level. Last year we received a total of 3cm all winter. The year before we had no snow at all. Last summer we had record rainfall and the year before we repeatedly broke all time high record temperatures, and were in a period of drought. Many of the rivers in Southwestern British Columbia all but dried up, and the salmon refused to enter the rivers to spawn due to abnormally high river water temperatures.

    There is nothing normal about our weather here at all anymore.

  38. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 5:18 pm 

    clogtwit, you just did yourself in again with your own words.

    “And I’m open for the possibility that the 1-2 Celsius increase could me man made. And then it stops.”

    “And then it stops.” So you have pre decided a limit.

    It’s so damn obvious that you have never made any effort to understand the science and sneakily use your google to cherry pick denier vomit and false comparisons.

    You are a big fucking embarrassment to the great and storied history of your countries scientists. You have shit and pissed over their graves.

  39. Anonymous on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 5:31 pm 

    Lets add, goal-post shifting to the list, you ok with that clogtard?

  40. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 6:20 pm 

    Australia’s new normal … as city temperatures hit 47C people shelter from the deadly heat

    In Sydney’s baking suburbs, fans have sold out – and fears about the effects of climate change are mounting

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/19/australia-new-normal-47c-climate-change

    It’s more than a little late to start the panic. Should have started panicking 30 years ago when the first strong scientific warnings came. In a few years when it gets really bad, I wonder who the mob will scapegoat? Rex Tillerson? Sure if they can get their hands on him. In lieu of that they will go for their local loud mouth denier instead.

  41. makati1 on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 6:23 pm 

    GregT, As you know, I live about 1,500 km north of the equator, out of the reach, I hope, of the Jet Stream’s meandering. While we have had some hotter days and some cooler days over the last 10 years, there has been nothing radical. Our biggest problem will be the possible increasing strength of the typhoons that occasionally hit or graze the islands. But then, this last year has been quiet.

  42. Apneaman on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 6:35 pm 

    Science doing what scientific doomers been doing for decades – connecting the dots.

    It’s more than just climate change
    February 18, 2017 by Lee Tune

    “The study explains that the Earth System (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, land, and biosphere) provides the Human System (e.g., humans and their production, distribution, and consumption) not only the sources of its inputs (e.g., water, energy, biomass, and materials) but also the sinks (e.g., atmosphere, oceans, rivers, lakes, and lands) that absorb and process its outputs (e.g., emissions, pollution, and other wastes).”

    “”Many datasets, for example, the data for the total concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, show that human population has been a strong driver of the total impact of humans on our planet Earth. This is seen particularly after the two major accelerating regime shifts: Industrial Revolution (~1750) and Green Revolution (~1950)” said Safa Motesharrei, UMD systems scientist and lead author of the paper. “For the most recent time, we show that the total impact has grown on average ~4 percent between 1950 and 2010, with almost equal contributions from population growth (~1.7 percent) and GDP per capita growth (~2.2 percent). This corresponds to a doubling of the total impact every ~17 years. This doubling of the impact is shockingly rapid.”

    “However, these human impacts can only truly be understood within the context of economic inequality,” pointed out political scientist and co-author Jorge Rivas of the Institute for Global Environment and Society. “The average per capita resource use in wealthy countries is 5 to 10 times higher than in developing countries, and the developed countries are responsible for over three quarters of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from 1850 to 2000.”

    https://phys.org/news/2017-02-climate_1.html#jCp

    OMG, I’m 3/4 responsible for greenhouse gasses. I plead guilty with an explanation your honor. Evolution dun made me do it.

  43. makati1 on Sat, 18th Feb 2017 6:43 pm 

    Ap, thanks for the ref. I have been saying that for years now, but certain rednecks don’t want to accept that FACT. For instance, the Ps uses 1/20 the oil per capita that the U$ does.

    “The average per capita resource use in wealthy countries is 5 to 10 times higher than in developing countries, and the developed countries are responsible for over three quarters of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from 1850 to 2000.”

    Now all the U$ has to do is cut their resource use by about 90%. LMAO

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