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 Post subject: Re: Energy and the exponential growth of knowledge & inn
New postPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:16 pm 
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Fusion
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lorenzo wrote:
For example: instead of waiting until the 800 million Africans of today have become the 3 billion they're projected to be in 2040, we should radically modernize African societies right now, and make sure that population growth is diminished. The only way to do so is by introducting a dose of modernity. Or are you advocating more archaic and premodern tactics, perhaps?


Well, than go there and modernize... Good luck.
It is easy to suggest some fantastic idea sitting in your armchair.

Before you can can manage to achieve any kind of "hypermodernity" you will face 2 major hurdless:

1. Physical limits on technology development (final boundary on progress).
2. Resistance to change (more and more "greens", Africans refusing modernization etc).

You may muddle trough 2. for some time, but as I observe, the further you go, the more resistance you meet.


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 Post subject: Re: Energy and the exponential growth of knowledge & inn
New postPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:56 pm 
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Thanks for not disagreeing with me, EnergyUnlimited. I see that you do not disagree with the substance of the matter, but that you point to limits that could slow down the process of achieving the ultimate goal. I agree with you on this.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
For example: instead of waiting until the 800 million Africans [...] introducting a dose of modernity.

Well, than go there and modernize... Good luck.
It is easy to suggest some fantastic idea sitting in your armchair.


I'm actually working on it. Are you?

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Before you can can manage to achieve any kind of "hypermodernity" you will face 2 major hurdless:

1. Physical limits on technology development (final boundary on progress).


Where did you read that there are physical limits on technology development? On what do you base this opinion?


EnergyUnlimited wrote:
2. Resistance to change (more and more "greens", Africans refusing modernization etc).


Mm, you have a different view of African realities. Have you ever been there? Of all places on the planet, black Africa is probably most "modern" in its aspirations. Classically modern, I would say.

I'd grant you that a small elite of spoiled Euro-American bourgeois with a guilt complex is probably willing to resist change and modernity, just because it's fashionable, for one thing - but definitely not the Africans I know. On the contrary. They're really extatic about modernity and progress. More than your average 19th century Progressivist.

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 Post subject: Re: Energy and the exponential growth of knowledge & inn
New postPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:35 pm 
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lorenzo wrote:
Note that "technology" is very broad: the contraceptive pill, which has assured that there are only 1.3 billion Chinese people on the planet instead of 4 billion, is one such technology.
Technology also comprises "social and cultural technologies", such as modernity and well disciplined societies thriving on progress myths.

All these are technologies with which we can assure that doom is prevented.

Geo-engineering the planet, in order to prevent catastrophic climate change, - another important technology.

In short, I think we can't do without technology, and becoming more efficient as a species in dealing with our resources is a subject par excellence where we'll have to use technologies.

So let me repeat my original question: given that we are using too much of the planet's resources, where do you go from here?

Heineken wrote:
So that's all you technology people have. News reports, vague promises, sexy articles, a few prototype robot-like thingies, and stock options.


I wouldn't downplay the efforts of a nobel prize trying to create biofuels out of genetically modified micro-organisms.

Or I wouldn't downplay the efforts of another such nobel who's trying to devise techniques with which to engineer the atmosphere in order to safe life on the planet.

You call them vague promises, I think they're essential for our very survival. And I think we should work on them.

One more word, you might think that I advocate blind, old world progressivism. The opposite is true. I merely think that pushing a logic (that of modernity) to its finality is more efficient and realistic than turning back, right when the most obvious thing to do would seem to be the opposite (back to pre-modernity, anti-modernity, regression, re-parochialisation), which is what, I think, you are advocating. We all know that there is no way back. We also know that the status quo is foolish. Hence, as good dialecticians we must conclude that the only option is a radical jump forward.

Leapfrogging towards hypermodernity, if you will.

For example: instead of waiting until the 800 million Africans of today have become the 3 billion they're projected to be in 2040, we should radically modernize African societies right now, and make sure that population growth is diminished. The only way to do so is by introducting a dose of modernity. Or are you advocating more archaic and premodern tactics, perhaps?


A complex post to respond to, Lorenzo.

I could point to many technologies that have seriously injured us, like the internal combusion engine, the Green Revolution, and the A-bomb---and many many more, perhaps most of them. We are the sum creation of all our technologies, and the world is teetering toward collapse. So the record of the impact of technology is not good, from a sustainability perspective. And yet you say the answer is more technology.

I just don't believe that technology has the capacity to save us, at least not in time. I don't believe we will ever have the means to "reengineer" the whole planet. That's hubris. For every step forward we take to ameliorate deteriorating conditions, we're moving two or three steps backward, and time is very short.

The only hope would be to simplify, not to increase complexity further. To power down, localize, kill the growth model through some sort of revolution. To redefine what is important to our society. The means of simplification are at hand, but your techno-promises remain, as I said earlier, pie-in-the-sky.

This would not mean discarding all technology. But it would mean accepting that survival of our species cannot depend on new technology---it can depend only on letting the natural processes of the earth reassert themselves and repair themselves to the degree possible. So we would let that happen, while holding on to existing technologies that are worth preserving, like good basic dentistry.

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---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
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 Post subject: Re: Energy and the exponential growth of knowledge & inn
New postPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2006 1:35 am 
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lorenzo wrote:
Thanks for not disagreeing with me, EnergyUnlimited. I see that you do not disagree with the substance of the matter, but that you point to limits that could slow down the process of achieving the ultimate goal. I agree with you on this.


lorenzo wrote:
I'm actually working on it modernization of Africa. Are you?

No.
However I do not see much effects of all efforts to deliver it.
It appears to me, that if only a bit of progress is achieved in Africa, than civil war (or some lunatic government) comes and most of achievements are destroyed.
This phenomenon is equivalent to "Africans resisting modernity" - if ever they achieve it, they will quickly destroy it.

In respect of physical limits on technology development:

You have few "flavours" of those limitations:

A. Attempt to construct a device working in direct breach of actual laws of physics.

Examples:

1. Attempts to build perpetual motion machine (means "energy for nothing" device).
Limiting law of physics: 1st or 2nd law of thermodynamics.
Conclusion: Will NEVER be done if our understanding of physics is correct.

2. Faster than light travel.
Limiting factor: Special theory of relativity says that infinited amount of energy is needed to achieve it. General relativity suggest, that object with any "rest mass" would collapse into black hole even BEFORE achieving speed of light.
Conclusion: as in 1 above.

B. Material science limitations.
At the moment we have exactly 100 chemical elements, which we had isolated in macroscopic quantities. There is few more elements isolated in quantities of some number of atoms, but too few to weigh them directly. There is about thousand varietes of known elements (these are isotopes).
It may be possible to manufacture 1-2 additional "macroscopic" elements (around Z=114 perhaps) and some more of those available as few atoms only.
In addition to atoms there are only few other forms of stable matter and ca 200 discreete but highly unstable elementary particles.
There may be some additional forms of matter in existance, but we do not know much about it now.

LIMIT: ANY existing device must be made of derivatives of matter described above.

Example: Arbitrary fast electronic circuitry/arbitrary powerful computer.
Basically you cannot make transistor smaller than an atom, and increase "speed of clock" to frequencies higher than those corresponding to UV light (any higer frequencies are BOUND to destroy physical structure of your chip).

This limits are BOUND to kill Moore's law at some point in the future.
They are also going to determine how powerful AI maight be and put limit on that.
One can only argue how far is this limit, say will it come BEFORE Kurzweil singularity - spoiling our fun, or later - than less relevant?

C. Technically possible, but realistically unfeasible device.

Example: [Possibly] Fusion reactor.
It may be possible to construct working fusion reactor but it is also possible that NONE of existing (or realistically imaginable) materials will take the flux of fast neutrons etc for more than say few hours-days-weeks (at most) without fatigue damage.

Conclusion: "Earth bound" fusion even if technologically achievable may NEVER be of any commercial use for us because it is finnancially impossible to replace extremely expensive critical parts of network of power plants every few days or weeks.


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