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 Post subject: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:05 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Piece written by Jason Kelly, who has written some very excellent books on stock analysis and market fundamentals. Even he admits that market fundamentals no longer apply in today's market.

http://www.jasonkelly.com/2009_10_01_blogarchive.html

Article wrote:
Since the March low, Apple's stock has risen nearly 150% and the easy explanation is its phenomenal business execution. Was it that bad before, though? No. Here's how Apple CEO Peter Oppenheimer began the earnings report conference call a year ago, on Oct. 21, 2008: "We are very pleased to report our September quarter results, which were record-breaking on a number of fronts. First, we sold more Macs than we have in any other quarter in Apple's history. Second, we sold more iPhones in the September quarter than in all previous quarters combined. Third, we sold more iPods than in any prior non-holiday quarter and finally, we generated more revenue and earnings than in any previous September quarter in Apple's history." Remember, that was a year ago. During that record-breaking quarter, Apple's stock declined 40%.

Article wrote:
Nope, it's a fraud in which you can spend all of your free time (or work time, as the case may be) analyzing product plans, marketing plans, management history, and so on just to be laid low by a bank that levers up too far or a single pen stroke from the Federal Reserve chairman. It finally became plain as day that individual investors are up against the Goldmans of the world, and the Goldmans own the casino via their connections to government and government's connections to the Fed. When the investment banks control the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, observing their actions alone is all that matters to the performance of a stock portfolio. Enough individual investors have seen that and realized that they stand little chance against such collusion that a crowd of former market participants would rather take their chances against inflation than the casino owners.

Sadly, those are the alternatives. Deciding to walk away from the stock market is barely an option for Americans because the money supply has been constantly inflating since the Fed's creation in 1913. Americans face two crummy choices: risk another cliff dive in stocks when the powers that be speculate the whole sham into another crisis, or try outpacing inflation in non-stock investments that are less vulnerable to Washington's whimsy. Lovely.


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 Post subject: Re: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:09 pm 
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Location: Austin, TX. The last oasis in the last free state.
Good question. Fundamentals means jack crap when the government steps into the market constantly to save companies that should fail, that you bet on to fail and their competitors to gain.

I invest ZILCH in the stock markets. I withdrew 100% of my money from equities in 2006. I'm 100% in commodities until the government quits stomping all over equities fundamentals. I'm not in the Treasury or Goldman Sachs getting insider info so I don't know what the smart stock pick is. F'ing pimps.


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 Post subject: Re: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:10 am 
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Intermediate Crude
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And companies like Cisco can juazz their stock price by laying off their technical people, which has been going on for decades across America, and dismanled its industrial base.


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 Post subject: Re: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:32 am 
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Intermediate Crude
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What about etfs that trade more or less directly on commodities?


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 Post subject: Re: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:05 pm 
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Quote:
Fundamentals means jack crap


If you read Benjamin Graham, the value of a share of stock is some combination of the following:

a. A function of the dividends paid out and the expected growth of the business over time...

b. A function of the value of the underlying assets of the business.....

So if the growth is zero or negative, and the value of the underlying assets of the business are questionable, as they would be in the case of real estate, it is really iffy whether any of these businesses are worth anything at all at this point.....

That is precisely the problem, starting with the banks, whose underlying assets are on the books based on some sort of fiction....

No one knows what anything is worth at the moment, including our cash money.


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 Post subject: Re: Why Bother Analyzing Companies?
New postPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:22 am 
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Light Sweet Crude
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Prince wrote:
Americans face two crummy choices: risk another cliff dive in stocks when the powers that be speculate the whole sham into another crisis, or try outpacing inflation in non-stock investments that are less vulnerable to Washington's whimsy. Lovely.
[/quote]

if you're looking for guaranteed 15% annual returns, yes then the choices are crappy.

if you're satisfied with your money simply holding it's value, then the choices are simple - food preps, PM's, land, and gun stuff.

but yes, it is wierd to look at a bank account statement and realize you're getting .36% or something - on a savings account.

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