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[ 11 posts ] |
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sicophiliac
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Post subject: When and how invest in oil Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:47 pm |
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Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 405 Location: san jose CA
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So here we are, November 2008 and to my surprise and probably many of yours as well oil is now below 50 dollars a barrel, not the 100-200 a barrel that many of us had expected. I had started playing around with a few energy stocks a couple years ago but due to some poor decisions buying a few penny stocks as well as the collapse in the price of oil I am down over 50%. Luckily I initially put in about 2 grand so its a loss I can brush off. Now that we are here with what I believe is temporarily dirt cheap oil I find this to be an opportunity too good to pass up for getting back in. So my question is how and when to strike? I am currently looking into buying some oil etfs like USO, OIL or maybe a more volatile play like DXO. Also I see plenty of oil services stocks with price to earnings ratios down at like 3-5:1 which is insanely cheap anyway you cut it. Also I have heard about doing options but I am pretty ignorant to that whole system so I would prefer to just buy stocks or etfs at least until I educate myself a bit more. Also there are some speculative plays in coal to liquids and cellulosic ethanol that might prove to make money eventually if they don't fold in the current market crash. So let me hear what you have to say?
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Polemic
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:09 pm |
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Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 384 Location: Austin, TX
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Gold is a much safer bet in my opinion. I think time is running out to get your hands on some.
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mefistofeles
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:22 pm |
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Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 418
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Although I am still invested in my oil ETF's gold is becoming increasingly scarce. The premium between what the "real" price and what they're charging you nymex is around 15% for most gold coins.
Gold is a much more stable assets, oil as we know can make you very rich or very poor very quickly. Although at this price and OPEC's upcoming meeting its quite clear that there is going to be hell to pay for the current prices.
Most of the oil producing countries simply can't survive with current oil prices. Oil production probably isn't viable at this level. Look for major shortages by summer 09.
Oil could come back with a vengance. However I think gold is a more "stable" play. Its not going to go up quite as much as oil but its not going to crash quite as much either.
Gold is also poised to explode as well with the central bank and institutional selling coming to an end its only a matter of time.
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scienceteacher
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:17 pm |
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Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 73
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Wanna buy gold?
Try Goldmoney.com (to hold it overseas, which is wise in case the gov wants to confiscate it) or to get physical try goldandsilvernow.com
We are going to be so f-cked. Get ready NOW.
silver is a better way to go.
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sicophiliac
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:51 pm |
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Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 405 Location: san jose CA
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I definitely want to start accumulating some gold too. I really don't see anyway out of this current economic mess without tremendous inflation in the coming years.
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SuperTico
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:44 am |
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Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 71 Location: Costa Rica
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sicophiliac wrote: I definitely want to start accumulating some gold too. I really don't see anyway out of this current economic mess without tremendous inflation in the coming years.
Just make damn sure you have the firearms and ammo to be able to keep it...or die trying.
If it ever got to that point( when) someone would notice you trading, or selling, boullion and you become the target. The number one target.
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Crazy_Dad
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:25 am |
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Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 76 Location: Perth, Australia
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SuperTico wrote: sicophiliac wrote: I definitely want to start accumulating some gold too. I really don't see anyway out of this current economic mess without tremendous inflation in the coming years. Just make damn sure you have the firearms and ammo to be able to keep it...or die trying. If it ever got to that point( when) someone would notice you trading, or selling, boullion and you become the target. The number one target.
The bigger target will be the guy trading in Baked Beans.
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sicophiliac
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 4:33 pm |
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Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 405 Location: san jose CA
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Eh call me naive but I don't think we are anywhere near that point...yet.
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DaleFromCalgary
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:14 pm |
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Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 66
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I have never bought publicly-traded stocks, and the last couple of months show why, but I have invested in private equity startup junior petes. The advantage of private equity is that the share price equals book value, not what some panicky day trader sells it for. Also there are regular dividends, not 10% or 20% like so many of those now vanished Wall Street financials, but steady growth.
None of this bouncing up and down like a yo-yo on the TSX or the NYSX. The disadvantage with private equity is less liquidity. You can't just phone up the broker and shout "Sell!", but have to find your own buyer. It is only for people who will stick to a plan and not panic because oil closed below $50.
The company I'm currently invested in does infill drilling on freehold lands in Alberta, using cash flow, not a line of credit. No spectacular returns, just a steady growth, but no debt or spectacular crashes either.
My investing motto is "Slow and steady wins the race".
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threadbear
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:13 pm |
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Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 7917
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supertico wrote: If it ever got to that point( when) someone would notice you trading, or selling, boullion and you become the target.
 Stick 'em up. Hand over your chicken soup, or there's going to be hell to pay. That's it, now back away slowly and pass me those baked beans, or I'm going to pump you full of hot lead!
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threadbear
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Post subject: Re: When and how invest in oil Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:17 pm |
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Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 7917
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scienceteacher wrote: Wanna buy gold?
Try Goldmoney.com (to hold it overseas, which is wise in case the gov wants to confiscate it) or to get physical try goldandsilvernow.com
We are going to be so f-cked. Get ready NOW.
silver is a better way to go.
Right. Hand over several thousand dollars to someone who assures you he is going to buy gold with it and store it, in a foreign locale. James Turk is great, love him, but I don't know if I'd trust my best friend on those conditions.
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