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View unanswered posts | View active topics
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mcgowanjm
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:19 am |
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Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 540
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Let's see. We destroyed the GDP: 1.66% clunkers. 1% inventory EconomPic: Thank You Cash for Clunkers Motor vehicles added a whopping 1.66% of the 3.5% growth in Q3 GDP. ... To summarize: 1) We have stimulus 2) We have inventory restocking ... econompicdata.blogspot.com/.../thank-you-cash-for-clunkers.html Anything with NAR in it should be considered a lie. Option ARMS exploding: Option ARMs Enter the Eye of the Hurricane: The $189 Billion ... Oct 29, 2009 ... In other words, California has $109 billion in option ARMs that have no ... The shadow inventory in higher priced markets tells us that ... www.doctorhousingbubble.com/option-arms ... e-califo... The stock market's all you got. With a 140 P/E: Pay No Attention to the 140 P/E Behind the Curtain -- Seeking Alpha Oct 15, 2009 ... The low volume represents traders who are simply pushing stock back and ... The 140 P/E is because of large one-time losses at companies like AIG ... Defend the ponzi market all you like. At some point natural laws will ... seekingalpha.com/.../166660-pay-no-attention-to-the-140-p-e-behind-the-curtain - Mish says it all. The Last Depression is just winding up. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/I say U.S. Faces Second Lost Decade "Because" of Misguided Stimulus Real Lesson of Japan's Lost Decades The real lesson is no matter how much money you throw around, economies cannot recover until uncollectible debts and malinvestments are written off. That is why you have “zero interest rates and still nothing’s happening.†The moment fiscal stimulus stops economies are virtually guaranteed to relapse until asset bubbles deflate, and malinvestments and bad debts are written off. Quote: Then he shook his head and said, “I feel sorry for my grandkids. Me, I’ve had a good life, and my sons all did pretty well, but my grandkids and other people’s kids, they’ll never have what we had.†
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mos6507
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:25 am |
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Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:00 am Posts: 7175 Location: Boston Suburbs
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pstarr wrote: Less energy==less work/less product==less money/higher prices. I believe this is what happened in the 1970's, a consequence of US peak. If the worst that will happen will resemble the 70s, I'll be happy. They weren't so bad, really. 
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pstarr
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:32 am |
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Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 10085 Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
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mos6507 wrote: pstarr wrote: Less energy==less work/less product==less money/higher prices. I believe this is what happened in the 1970's, a consequence of US peak. If the worst that will happen will resemble the 70s, I'll be happy. They weren't so bad, really.   Sure, but in the 1980's Mohammad Solo and Princess Labibah flew in on their Space Camels to rescue us. But the camels have run out of cud.
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ki11ercane
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:17 am |
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 406 Location: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
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Seems to be a lot of Bloomberg hashing. I guess like all MSM's, we're victim to their shimmer. (me included) Looking at the stock market today against Bloomberg's shiny news reports, all the gains of today have but disappeared again. Nothing investors hate more than "inconsistency." It makes them perpetually nervous. I go to this website often - http://railfax.transmatch.com/. The one thing I look at a lot is near the bottom; crushed stone and wood products. If you want a realistic interpretation of where the recession is going, look there. If you look at the chart, you can see almost a parallel to crushed stone and wood uptick to the stimulus et al packages. Now with those stimuli winding down, especially in lumber, numbers are dropping back to pre-printing press statistics. It seems the spin on the positive and negative seem to be neck in neck, and I guess it all comes down to where "your" personally economy is in, and where you are standing. Give OF2, pstarr, Bloomberg, and the DOW a glace, but then get up from your effen computer and look outside your window.
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OilFinder2
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:03 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 3824 Location: Cornucopia
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Hell has frozen over! Karl Denninger actually said a recent government economic report is good news! >>> LINK <<<
_________________ PO. Peak Optimism - when installed natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure!
Fun new game for peak oilers to play! It's called Follow the Prospects!
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TheAntiDoomer
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:25 pm |
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Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 575
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OilFinder2 wrote: Hell has frozen over! Karl Denninger actually said a recent government economic report is good news! >>> LINK <<< LMAO, can't wait to hear how the "doom pumpers" spin this one! 
_________________ Do I make you Corny?
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Chuckmak
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:41 pm |
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Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 1047 Location: Bridge City
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TheAntiDoomer wrote: OilFinder2 wrote: Hell has frozen over! Karl Denninger actually said a recent government economic report is good news! >>> LINK <<< LMAO, can't wait to hear how the "doom pumpers" spin this one!  Both sides are good at spinning...let's not get it twisted. Wow I just got dizzy as all heck typing that 
_________________ "if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire
"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas
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ki11ercane
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:40 pm |
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 406 Location: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
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Chuckmak wrote: TheAntiDoomer wrote: OilFinder2 wrote: Hell has frozen over! Karl Denninger actually said a recent government economic report is good news! >>> LINK <<< LMAO, can't wait to hear how the "doom pumpers" spin this one!  Both sides are good at spinning...let's not get it twisted. Wow I just got dizzy as all heck typing that  X2 on that. Both sides are equally guilty of spin.
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OilFinder2
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:47 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 3824 Location: Cornucopia
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OilFinder2 wrote: Hell has frozen over! Karl Denninger actually said a recent government economic report is good news! >>> LINK <<< I just realized I goofed. The ISM isn't a government entity,  Anyway when Denninger says an economic report sounds good, then something must surely be afoot. 
_________________ PO. Peak Optimism - when installed natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure!
Fun new game for peak oilers to play! It's called Follow the Prospects!
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TonyPrep
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:38 pm |
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Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 2663 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
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ki11ercane wrote: How much of this increase of GDP is directly related to all stimulus injected into the U.S. economy? One view is 3.5% in the 3rd quarter..
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OilFinder2
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:15 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 3824 Location: Cornucopia
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Factory orders are up for the 5th time in 6 months. Looks like boom times are just around the corner! >>> LINK <<<
_________________ PO. Peak Optimism - when installed natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure!
Fun new game for peak oilers to play! It's called Follow the Prospects!
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eXpat
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:56 pm |
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Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 1677
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Fannie Mae seeks $15 bln in US aid after 3Q lossQuote: WASHINGTON – Fannie Mae is asking for an additional $15 billion in government aid after posting another big loss in the third quarter as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps rising.
The government-controlled company continued to see a dramatic surge of borrowers fall behind as the unemployment rate climbs. At the end of last month, about 4.7 percent of Fannie Mae's borrowers had missed at least three payments.
That's nearly triple last year's level. And the problem is worse in Florida and Nevada, where more than 11 percent of Fannie's loans are in serious trouble.
Seized by federal regulators 14 months ago, the problems at Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac have proven far worse than most experts had foreseen. Fannie Mae's request Thursday will bring the tab for rescuing both companies to about $111 billion. The government has promised up to $400 billion in assistance.
"There is significant uncertainty regarding the future of our business, including whether we will continue to exist, and we expect this uncertainty to continue," Fannie Mae said.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That's about half of all mortgages.
The two companies lowered their standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. High-risk loans, now defaulting at a record pace, have come back to haunt the companies. Worse still, the recession is causing formerly reliable homeowners with good credit to default.
Fannie Mae posted a quarterly loss of $19.76 billion, or $3.47 per share. The loss includes $883 million in dividends paid to the Treasury Department and compares with a loss of $29.41 billion, or $13 per share, in the year-ago period.
The results were driven by $22 billion in credit losses as the company continued to build its reserves for sour mortgages.
Thursday's request for financial aid — Fannie Mae's fourth — brings the company's total to about $60 billion. [ http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g2vab8oGqpHWJXDDdZqmfqn2K60QD9BPLKF81
_________________ Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horses, And all the king's men, Couldn't put Humpty together again.
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eXpat
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:00 pm |
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Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 1677
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OilFinder2 wrote: Factory orders are up for the 5th time in 6 months. Looks like boom times are just around the corner! >>> LINK <<< Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekersQuote: WASHINGTON – Companies across the economy are finding ways to do more with fewer workers, dimming hopes that hiring will take off anytime soon.
Employers became leaner and more efficient in the third quarter. Wages, meantime, remain flat or falling. The result is that productivity — output per hour of work — jumped at the fastest pace in six years.
The good news for companies, though, may be bad news for the jobless. As long as companies can get their workers to produce more, they have little reason to hire — at least until consumer spending picks up. And the squeeze on incomes could depress consumer spending, putting the economic recovery at risk. ... Productivity is the key ingredient to rising living standards. It lets companies pay their workers higher wages. Those increases tend to be financed by increased output, rather than higher costs for products.
But as they struggled with the recession, companies boosted productivity while continuing to lay off workers. Many produced more goods; others kept their output down but slashed costs. Companies kept wages down by freezing pay or imposing unpaid furloughs.
"Survival meant cutting costs as rapidly as possible and fulfilling orders with the fewest number of workers," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. http://www.auburnpub.com/articles/2009/11/05/ap/business/us_economy.txt
_________________ Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horses, And all the king's men, Couldn't put Humpty together again.
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OilFinder2
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:07 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 3824 Location: Cornucopia
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>>> Unemployment claims slide <<< Quote: The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance fell last week, the government said Thursday, with a total figure that was below analysts' expectations.
There were 512,000 initial job claims filed in the week ended Oct. 31, down 20,000 from a revised 532,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said in a weekly report.
A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 522,000 new claims.
[...]
Continuing claims. The government said 5,749,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Oct. 24, the most recent data available. That was down 68,000 from the preceding week's revised 5,817,000 claims.
[...] And back to those charts again . . ..  
_________________ PO. Peak Optimism - when installed natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure!
Fun new game for peak oilers to play! It's called Follow the Prospects!
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OilFinder2
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Post subject: Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 2 Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:13 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 3824 Location: Cornucopia
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pstarr wrote: Except the consumer has been bled dry. Or, maybe not. >>> Retailers post best monthly sales in more than a year <<<
_________________ PO. Peak Optimism - when installed natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure!
Fun new game for peak oilers to play! It's called Follow the Prospects!
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