THE Federal Reserve Thread (merged)

grabby · **Joined:** Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1315

My Grandfather once almost said:
There is an indisputable reason for everything, and sometimes you just do not want to know what it is.

But it is PROBABLY all about money.

dbarberic · **Joined:** Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 237

For another perspective on the removal of the M3 stat, Jim Puplava of Financial Sense Online commented on the fed dropping the M3 stat for about the last 10-15 minutes of the 3rd part his weekly show.

You can download the MP3 here.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/f ... 1112-3.mp3

I’ve been listening weekly to his three Financial Sense radio shows and he is extremely rational and non-conspiracy as one can get.

He himself, as stated on the radio show, finds the removal of the M3 stat from publication to be very disturbing.

While he does not link the removal of the stat to the Iran oil exchange, he does tie to the Fed wanting to hide significant inflation of money supply.

Rather than paraphrase, you can listen to it using the link above.

dbarberic · **Joined:** Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 237

Another online story at Financial Sense Online about the M3 stat being cut.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /1112.html

Quote:

M3 is the most important money aggregate for economists, analysts and Fed watchers to get an idea at what the speed the (electronic) printing press is running.

bobcousins · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 9:59 am

azreal60 wrote:

I still haven't seen a reason to stop publishing the data. I'm assuming they won't stop Collecting the data, after all, who would plan monetary policy for a nation without all the available data they could get. So why stop publishing it unless it was really bad news? I mean, float an alternate senario for it, cause i'm not seeing it.

Duh! If they are the ones doing the planning, and if they don't use it, why not save money by not generating it?

Now, you may disagree with the way they do their planning, but that is a separate question.

grabby · **Joined:** Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1315

The soviet union before the fall would not release financil information either..

azreal60 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 10:16 am

I can't quote you because i'm at work, but i would say that how can one do economic planning without accounting for how euro dollars and other things are in play? I won't even begin to say i have any experience in this area, i think i peaked out with macro and micro a few years ago, but i'll tell you this. Monetary info like this is only a few clicks on a computer, it's not a huge study to accumulate all this data. This much i know for sure. So if it takes very little effort to get, and it was good news and economists are saying we use this data alot, why would anyone stop publishing it unless it was disasterous news? Sorry, this one just doesn't get explained away that easily. What they really want to say is, when someone accumulates this data on their own, that it's not "official data". Otherwise they would have to admit to the implications of what this data implys.

By the way, when ever someone mentions the work conspiracy, i have to point back to things like world com and eron. It doesn't have to be a huge conspiracy, maybe someone just doesn't want to get fired. But the effects are going to be alot bigger than that.

dbarberic · **Joined:** Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 237

Here is a reference from one of the more main stream media:

CBS Marketwatch:
http://tinyurl.com/e2v55 (may require registration)

Quote:

Those who incline to a macro view, however, had an arresting fact to consider. It was well put by gold veteran James Turk of the Free Market Gold & Money Report. Turk wants to:

"Berate the Fed for an unbelievable announcement made this past week. Without explanation, the Fed disclosed: 'On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate.' "

Not unreasonably, Turk concludes:

"Why does the Fed no longer want to report the total quantity of dollars in circulation? They know what's coming -- massive amounts of dollar creation to fund the worsening trade and federal government budget deficits. The Fed is just doing what other government agencies already do when they don't like the result of their statistical calculations. Like children, they play 'make believe.' "

I'm producing these articles, because even if you exclude conspiracy speculation, the professional investing and economist community is finding the behavior of the Fed to be very strange.

Elimination of the M3 does not pass the smell test….

GoIllini · **Joined:** Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 571

dbarberic wrote:

I'm producing these articles, because even if you exclude conspiracy speculation, the professional investing and economist community is finding the behavior of the Fed to be very strange.

Elimination of the M3 does not pass the smell test….

Neither does Area 51. That doesn't mean I believe in alien conspiracies.

You'll note who this guy is. He's from an investing firm that seems to have a HUGE interest in gold. It's similar to the biggest shareholder of Chevron claiming that something at BP appears to be an accounting scandal and that indeed, every single other oil company besides Chevron is having accounting scandals.

Gold is one of the most pumped precious metals in the world. If you're worried about currency, at least buy something like Silver that hasn't been overinflated.

azreal60 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 12:11 pm

Again, dodging the question doesn't mean the question is answered. I haven't heard one single reason not to report something they have reported for almost 50 years. It obviously has alot of use to the people who are shocked that it's being taken away, so the questions remains, why are they no longer reporting what many in the mainstream are calling critical data? It doesn't make sense unless it is because what the data says is something it's producers does not like.

GoIllini · **Joined:** Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 571

azreal60 wrote:

Again, dodging the question doesn't mean the question is answered. I haven't heard one single reason not to report something they have reported for almost 50 years. It obviously has alot of use to the people who are shocked that it's being taken away, so the questions remains, why are they no longer reporting what many in the mainstream are calling critical data? It doesn't make sense unless it is because what the data says is something it's producers does not like.

Keep in mind that the only people who are "shocked" it's being taken away are the doomers and the gold bugs. Why am I not suprised? I'd imagine some of these people were those "Catholics" who were "shocked" that a Catholic like John Kerry could be OK with abortion.

The most critical data the Fed produces is M1. Maybe the Fed's having its own form of budget cuts- just like the rest of the government's having. Tracking down data on foreign investments isn't exactly cheap or easy, and I think an explanation that the fed's trying to save tens of millions of dollars is more plausible than a conspiracy to devalue the dollar.

azreal60 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 12:37 pm

Again, dodging the question does not answer it.

First off, they only said they are no longer publishing the data. Of course they are still going to collect it. They just aren't going to release it to the public. Any cost savings would be extremely negligable.

And not all of the people shocked are interested in jumping gold stocks or doomers of some kind. Alot of them are respected economists that simply wonder what changed this year that a almost 59 year old way of measuring our economy went by by. And they are right to wonder, because if there had been any measure of savings from this, don't you think the fed would have immediately reported it? Goverment organizations ALWAYS are their own cheerleaders when they do something fiscally good. No, this smacks of we don't want to hear bad news.

falser · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:35 pm

The people freaking out the most in this thread are the ones complaining about conspiracy theorists. The others just want answers, something more than "We are cancelling it". If this is the way Ben will run things I'm sure we'll have some fun economic rides ahead.

Petrodollar · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:40 pm

I find this bit of news curious, but then I read a post that made me fall off my chair. This "rationale" has to be the funniest thing I've read in a LONG time...

Quote:

Tracking down data on foreign investments isn't exactly cheap or easy, and I think an explanation that the fed's trying to save tens of millions of dollars is more plausible than a conspiracy to devalue the dollar.

...Please stop, my gut hurts... :lol:

I can't stop laughing at that suggestion that the fed wants to save a few million dollars by suddenly not publishing M3 without any explanation :lol:

That is a very funny rationale...

...So what's next?, let's start saving some more money and stop reporting inflation stats too?, and what about those complicated monthly employment statistics? That's awfully hard to calculate and track, you have to make some phone calls, and other hard stuff. So, here's another cost saver: let's just stop publishing the hardest-of-the-hard statisitc to calculate, the GDP stats. While we're saving all that money for better reporting, let's really improve the forecast: Let's drop all published references to US trade and budget debts too...

Afterall, it's hard to track all that data, and it's just "fuzzy math" to those in charge, right?

donshan · **Posted:** Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:41 pm

Perhaps it would be useful to replay the lyrics of the song "American Bye", if only to provide a moment of relief from all the worrying.

This was composed by
- Harry Chernoff
Pathfinder Capital Advisors, LLC
and printed in the December 7, 2004 issue of Barrons.

Quote:

______________________
From Barrons -December 7, 2004

American Bye
(with apologies to Don McLean)

A long, long time ago…
I can still remember
How the dollar used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had the chance
I'd sell the currency of France
And, maybe, I'd be happy for awhile.

But all our spending made me shiver
With every T-bill we'd deliver.
Bad news on the doorstep;
I couldn't take one more step.

I can't remember if cried
When I heard our politicians lied
But something touched me deep inside
The day the dollar died.

So bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

Did you write Whitehouse.gov
And have you a Yen to fall in love
If Japan will tell you so?
Now, do you believe in oil 'n coal
Can China fill our import hole
And can we teach them how to grow real slow?

Well I know our country's fit and trim
'Cause the jobs are in the Pacific rim.
We knew those savers would lose
Man, I loved not having to choose.

We were living off the almighty buck
We got their goods and they were stuck
But I knew we were out of luck
The day the dollar died.

I started singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

Now for ten years we were sure we owned
All the stocks and bonds and mortgage loans
But that's not how it's gonna be.
When we've spent it all like kings and queens
In clothes we bought from The Philippines
The Asians pick the reserve currency.

And as the buck was drifting down,
The central bankers came to town.
Our stocks and bonds were spurned
Those dollars were returned.
And while unions filled their books with Marx
The President said drill the parks
Our thermostats froze in the dark
The day the dollar died.

We were singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

Helter skelter in a summer swelter
The equity's gone from your leveraged shelter
Fannie and Freddie are falling fast.
Crash, they landed, like breaking glass
Full faith and credit have long since passed
With Congress, in denial, out of gas.

Now the Wal-Mart there has cheap perfume
With imports filling every room.
We all got up to dance
Oh, but we never got the chance.
Consumers tried to take the field
The central banks refused to yield
Do you recall what was revealed
The day the dollar died?

We started singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

And there we were all in one place
Our credit rating in disgrace
With no time left to start again.
So come on: Al be nimble, Al be quick!
Al, cut rates by 50 ticks |
'cause credit is the debtor's only friend.

Oh, and as I watched him on the stage
My hands were clenched in fists of rage
No congressman in hell
Could buy what he would sell.
And as the rates climbed high into the night
To stem the U.S. asset flight
The IMF said, "Yes, that's right!"
The day the dollar died

They were singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her if we still could choose
But she just smiled and turned away.
I went down to the Medicare store
Where we'd spent our dollars years before
But the man there said those dollars wouldn't pay.

And in the streets the children screamed
The seniors cried and the workers steamed
But not a word was spoken
The commitments all were broken.
And the three men I admire most:
Faber, Rogers, and Bill Gross
Were at the forex trading post
The day the dollar died.

And they were singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died
This'll be the day that it died.

They were singin'
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
'cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin' sake to try
Singin' this'll be the day that it died.

-- Harry Chernoff
Pathfinder Capital Advisors, LLC

EnergySpin · **Joined:** Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 2365

donshan wrote:

Perhaps it would be useful to replay the lyrics of the song "American Bye", if only to provide a moment of relief from all the worrying.

This was composed by
- Harry Chernoff
Pathfinder Capital Advisors, LLC
and printed in the December 7, 2004 issue of Barrons.

Let me guess ... Madonna is the singer ?
Pretty good find donshan ... this is the first time I read this

THE Federal Reserve Thread (merged)

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