For the pure joy of it, I propose a second PO.com oil price forecasting challenge.

Reason: Entertainment value, also because it is one thing to ridicule one of these pesky analysts for making a prediction you do not necessarily agree with, and it is quite another to make one for yourself.

Rules:
1. Anyone can participate. Everyone can only enter once. There is no charge to enter. Side bets are encouraged, however.

2. Each participant is to make three guesses: The high, the low, and the closing price on December 31, 2009.

We will use the Cushing OK NYMEX Futures Contract #1 from the EIA table. Note that this only gives daily closing prices, not interday prices, for those who wish to factor this into your calculations.

Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 31 price, which will be a few days into 2010.

3. I will be the official tabulator. Entries will be allowed until January 7, 2009. You can edit your entry if you want, before then, but I will record the official entries at that point.

4. The winner in each category (high, low and close) will be regarded with reverence, and generally declared to have superior intellect and/or clairvoyant powers, and get abundant respect from the fellow forum dwellers. Nothing bad will happen if you are wrong.

Special note: In light of the wild fluctuations in the oil price during the past year, anyone who submits a forecast at all will be showered with respect from the forum dwellers just for entering.

5. I have a separate thread elsewhere to capture forecasts from the media and famous talking heads and other agencies on this important topic. We will of course hold them accountable for their forecasts, needless to say.

6. Those who wish to forecast the WTI price in Euros may also feel free to do so. Those who wish to forecast an average price for the year may also feel free.

7. Other rules will be made up as we go.

8. Note that per the above, anyone who puts down a prediction has moral superiority and has extra artistic license to critique the predictions of any of the industry or media experts, at least for the next year. Also, feel free to include whatever your forecasting method, logic, or theory is, if you have one.

Let the forecasting begin!

You need to edit...

Ok. I'll play this year.

I think volatility will continue into the next year, so my range will be large.
Low: $22 High: $125
And at the end of 2009: $115
Just a WAG.

Low: $37

High: $147

Close: $135

Low: $23 around March 23rd.

High: $93 around late August.

Close: $72.

Low: $33

High: $125

Close: $106

New MSM Buzzword: "Price Plateau."

Wow, this is not easy.

Low: 18

High: 68

Close: 46

I'm expecting global recession to last a while before inflation kicks in.

Lows--35.00

Highs--60.00

Close--58.00

Low = $35

High = $75

Close = $65

This is what I get for being lazy and trying to copy from the original thread when there are a lot of distractions around.

You are of course correct.... December 31, 2009 is the correct finishing date.

Although I must say, it is not at all a gimmie at this point to correctly guess the oil price two weeks from now.

Is it ok if we edit our predictions until Dec 31st 2008?

Hi $119

Low $28

Close $39

just a guess

low=25

high=200

end of year=130

wow this is fun!

I am a laid back judge.... feel free to edit. I will post the final predictions in some fashion on the 7th. There will inevitably be a few typos, so feel free to alert me if you edit your post, or if I somehow screwed up and do not have the right number.

low=37
high=73
close=61

edit-almost forgot about the dollar index.

edit1-updated 1/6/08

What the heck, didn't do this last year, so . . .

Low = $21
High = $60
Close = $50