The 2009 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

dohboi · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 2096

It nearly hit $78 today. Are we off to the races (or stars?) again? Have we broken out of a trading range? Where is the next ceiling? Any guesses?

careinke · **Posted:** Thu Oct 15, 2009 2:31 pm

Point and Figure charts are showing a price objective of $103. Of course, a few days ago they were projecting a bearish low of $62.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$WTIC,P&listNum=

A jump to 100 with a fall back to 80 would increase my standings a lot!!! <GRIN>

PeakOiler · **Posted:** Thu Oct 15, 2009 5:24 pm

pup55 wrote:

The pesky EIA updates their spreadsheet once a week or so, and has not done so since the 6th.

When they update it to reflect the new yearly high, I'll update the standings, unless one of our fellow spreadsheet nerds who has this capability beats me to it.

I can hardly wait.... particulary if it pulls back to 68 or so within the next few days.

LOL @ pup55. I resemble that remark. But I prefer to be known as a geeky number cruncher than a nerd.
:lol:

I wait for the EIA data too, though they only give the closing price, and not the intraday high price. Is that right?

I'll update my spreadsheet soon. After all, iirc, pup is still the official record keeper for this thread.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4447

Code:

               High   Low   Close average
                 75.18 33.98 75.18  58.05
               High   Low   Close Hi DiffLow DifClose Overall
wisconsin_cur    72.16 32.68 70.35   3.02    1.3  4.83   9.15
thylacine           75    35    65   0.18   1.02 10.18  11.38
obixman             85    34  70.5   9.82   0.02  4.68  14.52
Maddog78            90    31    74  14.82   2.98  1.18  18.98
SteinarN            88    36    68  12.82   2.02  7.18  22.02
pup55            77.04 25.24 62.13   1.86   8.74 13.05  23.65
basil_hayden        89    33    66  13.82   0.98  9.18  23.98
Gerben              90    38    70  14.82   4.02  5.18  24.02
Cog                100    35    80  24.82   1.02  4.82  30.66
3aidlillahi         93    23    72  17.82  10.98  3.18  31.98
DoomWarrior         88    22  66.6  12.82  11.98  8.58  33.38
threadbear          60    35    58  15.18   1.02 17.18  33.38
VMarcHart           80    20    60   4.82  13.98 15.18  33.98
MC2                 98    31    67  22.82   2.98  8.18  33.98
kublikhan           60    30    50  15.18   3.98 25.18  44.34
xarkz               70    30    40   5.18   3.98 35.18  44.34
careinke           101    22    82  25.82  11.98  6.82  44.62
cualcrees          105    27    85  29.82   6.98  9.82  46.62
AAA                 57    20    55  18.18  13.98 20.18  52.34
davep               68    18    46   7.18  15.98 29.18  52.34
no_name             69    24    39   6.18   9.98 36.18  52.34
OilFinder2          60    21    50  15.18  12.98 25.18  53.34
TireFire            52    32    46  23.18   1.98 29.18  54.34
Pops                60    20    50  15.18  13.98 25.18  54.34
kmann               50    34    45  25.18   0.02 30.18  55.38
OutOfGas*          100    50    90  24.82  16.02 14.82  55.66
yesplease           54    27    42  21.18   6.98 33.18  61.34
Duende             110    40    45  34.82   6.02 30.18  71.02
DantesPeak         109  28.2   109  33.82   5.78 33.82  73.42
Bas                145    35    80  69.82   1.02  4.82  75.66
TheDude            125    33   106  49.82   0.98 30.82  81.62
bodinagamin        130    18    90  54.82  15.98 14.82  85.62
ColossalContrar    119    28    39  43.82   5.98 36.18  85.98
vaseline2008        40    19    35  35.18  14.98 40.18  90.34
natts              158    35    83  82.82   1.02  7.82  91.66
shady28             48    19    22  27.18  14.98 53.18  95.34
PeakOiler          125    28   115  49.82   5.98 39.82  95.62
the48thronin        45    11    15  30.18  22.98 60.18 113.34
Arsenal            187    22    77 111.82  11.98  1.82 125.62
eastbay            147    37   135  71.82   3.02 59.82 134.66
Revi               200    30   100 124.82   3.98 24.82 153.62
cipi604            170    25   147  94.82   8.98 71.82 175.62
eXpat              180    34   150 104.82   0.02 74.82 179.66
StormBringer       165    17   154  89.82  16.98 78.82 185.62
GoghGoner          192    38   140 116.82   4.02 64.82 185.66
hardtootell        200    25   130 124.82   8.98 54.82 188.62
biofuel13          176    28   168 100.82   5.98 92.82 199.62
sjn                200    35       124.82   1.02 75.18 201.02
ZombieHordeLead    200    35   200 124.82   1.02124.82 250.66
vtsnowedin         237  22.5   187 161.82  11.48111.82 285.12
jupiters_releas    247    31   214 171.82   2.98138.82 313.62

averages         112.7  28.6  84.2

WC still maintains his lead but there is a lot of turmoil lower down in the table. i believe Obixman and Maddog and SteinarN are the next contenders rising into the upper strata...I actually lost a bit in the standings because as the price continues higher, I lose one point on the "close" prediction for every point I gain in "high"....

Peakoiler, I am a laid back judge, so feel free to post your preliminary spreadsheet if the mood hits. Actually, all that is at stake here is the love, respect and admiration of the entire PO.com community, which is either priceless or worthless depending on your point of view, so participation is good and we can do what we want.

Maddog78 · **Joined:** Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 1081

Yes, nice little boost for me this go around.

Cog · **Posted:** Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:58 pm

Went from 14th place to 9th. Nice except for the doom to follow.

wisconsin_cur · **Joined:** Thu May 10, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 4616

Who would have thought that we would have such a tight trading range for ~17 weeks?

How long until the fear of the dollar is trumped by a fear of a "double dip" or "W" shaped recession?

Better than TV I tell you.

dohboi · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 2096

"Who would have thought that we would have such a tight trading range for ~17 weeks?"

This has really surprised me, too, cur. The one thing I think we could be sure of was fairly wild fluctuations. In the long term, 17 weeks is not that long, I guess. But it has seemed odd to see such stability in a time we pretty much all assume to be post peak.

Of course, we have now broken out of that range. How long till we break $80 again? This does not seem like a time of year that we would expect a really big rally in oil price, but who knows?

Technical analysis seems to be pointing toward $85, but as this article points out, technical analysis was essentially wrong for five years on the run-up toward the high price last years.

link

PeakOiler · **Posted:** Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:46 am

I noted the EIA reported a WTI closing spot price of $75.20 on 10/14/09.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

So my spreadsheet is a little different than pup's data, but two cents didn't make any difference in the overall rankings:

Revi · **Posted:** Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:41 pm

I think I'm moving up with the price of oil. I don't think we'll hit $200 at this rate though. It's fun watching it all.

eastbay · **Posted:** Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:50 am

I still think I'm going to be very close to winning.

Revi · **Posted:** Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:59 am

We may be moving up Eastbay. 321 energy says that the refiners aren't making any money and have reduced utilization to around 80%, which is lower than after Katrina.

We may have an economic Katrina happening again, which might push prices up for a while.

I think as soon as the price comes up they will start refining again, but it may drive prices for a while.

http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

wisconsin_cur · **Joined:** Thu May 10, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 4616

Revi,

wouldn't that drive the price of refined product up (and perhaps crude down)?

careinke · **Posted:** Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:42 am

I just may be in the top ten next week. Unfortunately, my bad low call will make it impossible to win.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4447

Quote:

little different than pup's data,

It is not unheard of for me to forget what a number was in the four seconds it takes to look at the closing price and then scroll to the top of the screen to enter it as the closing price in my spreadsheet.....Middle age will do that to you.

Perhaps I will be more focused on the next update, or write it down next time.

The 2009 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Who is online