How so? The market doesn't depends on how bad things are per say, but instead how bad things are compared to how bad they were expected to be. Or good, or both, etc...

the market has some stochastic moves to work thru, but taleb gives tyou the big picture:

markets are stupid and easily manipulated

confidence in the markets is broken and demand for securities has been vaporized.

the hedge funds must delever before they die.

lots of downside risk yet.

now, like spg, i will not let 'what i know' about the markets stop me from seeing reality. market sentiment is temporarily strong and we need to trade with that in mind.

I just really don't know. It could go either way at this point. Peter Worden says the market is kind of tensed waiting on word on the auto bailout and is likely to take off like a rocket when that happens. That feels right to me. The overall sentiment for the week has been bearish, but there were a couple of really powerful rallies yesterday. Big players buying big volumes. Anything from maybe 300 down to 200 up wouldn't surprise me as an outcome for today.

Down 500 and oil below $40.00 are my predictions.

I hope you are right, but my gut says that's just not happenin' today.

Well the Big ol' Bear just got a boost. The breaking news banner on CNBC says that delinquencies and foreclosures just hit new records. Let's see if that was already priced in...

Dow currently down -171

It'll be interesting to see if we can get below Monday's lows without a big rebound.

It's shoved up against the band line on the hourlies right now. We'll see here in a few minutes if we turn the corner or bounce off.

SPG-

Can you post or link up to the band line chart for the day please?

-217 and no bounce yet. Is the bear in full swing??

I guess when everyone works for the government, the DOW will go back up to 14000...hopefully the current inactivity of the sun the past year is the beginning of an ice age (Maunder Minimum type event) and we head into the depths of the darkest cold anyone has seen since the Romans fell. The Nile will freeze, they'll be ice fishing on the Euphrates, corn will freeze on the stalk in July... Get ready for it... Gears are turning, things are changing.

Woohoo! less workers to pay... rally on boys! Give me 50K shares of Ford/GM/CHRYSLER

This is where you're at on the hourlies. The 1, 5, and 10 minute charts are well within the band as is the daily chart.

FUN! Must have been a bunch of stops below Monday's low.

Link