Ok stock market junkies let's give this one more try. Maybe we can get more than a page on this thread before it freezes like the last one.

Let the charts, fundamentals and prognostications roll....

Well...this was my comment on the day (copied from the dead thread).

I thought it was a pretty good day. Basically rallied hard on the open and spent the rest of the day consolidating. It finished in the middle of all the bands, so we should be in a good position for tomorrow. On the S&P we're hitting a bit of resistance at 912 from the highs on 11/13. We're clearly above those highs on the Dow though and I suspect the S&P will push on through tomorrow without need of a big bounce. Depending on what happens tomorrow, it will be worth keeping an eye on the daily chart. We're fairly close to the upper band line on the dailies. We'll have to either bounce or turn the corner and stretch the band in the next day or two probably.

Need to un-sticky/delete the other one.

If reposts from the locked "Take One" thread are okay...

Also, major econoblog bear Mish is forecasting a near-term rally (and he's not the only one).



From my layman's perspective, this seems quite plausible. The markets have a natural positive buoyancy, so in the absence of serious bad news or overwhelming technical forces, they will go up. Other than some retail sales figures there won't be as much bad news as there was over the past six weeks for the rest of December, and with Obama's New New Deal and the first-phase auto bailout deal agreement, I think the bulls might push the Dow back to 10,000.

That being said, I thnk by the end of February 2009 we'll be back on the downward track to Dow 5,000.

Any thoughts on a potential Santa/Obama rally for the next 60 days or so?

Tues 12/09- Twenty minutes after the bell and the DOW is down -90pts.

I think the bears are hibernating though, and we can expect this rally to continue to slowly creep upwards for the next few weeks.

Then towards the end of Jan-early Feb the bear will come out of it's coma and it will be starving...then things should get fun again!

I think so. Sort of catching it's breath after two days of big rallies and retesting the mid day lows from yesterday. Looks like they've held, so it'll probably head upwards here directly. My prediction for today would be somewhere between -100 and +200.



Things can be fun now too. Just get yourself a pair of horns and come play.

Why does that sound so naughty to me? LOL!

I'm talking about the stock market. I don't know where you're going with it.

Interesting disconnect today. The S&P is at about zero. The Nasdaq is up about 1% and the Dow is down almost 1%.

The NASDAQ seems to be swimming against the tide today.

DOW, S&P, Toronto all red but the Naz is hanging onto the green.

SPG, the housing/economic thread won't open either.

Wasnt there some discussion a few weeks ago about the Nasdaq possibly decoupling from the rest of the exchanges! It seems all bailouts are to benefit the old economy!

One other thing, does anyone think a very large and surprising supply cut out of the OPEC (which Russia seems to be cooperating with) meeting on the 17th could send this Santa rally to a screeching halt? There are rumors of another 2 mbd cut!

Hedge funds are still needing to liquidate positions to meet redemptions on 12/31. They will sell into any upside, and as the end of the month comes closer, expect fire sales.

Just looking at the calendar, you have 2 1/2 days of low volume the week of Christmas, you wouldn't want to sell into that, then 2 days before redemptions the following week.

So that pretty much leaves this week and next week. Figure the fire sales happen next week.

We're kinda stalling out on the highs from 11/13-14. I'd watch it carefully. Probably will break through, but might take a big dip first.

As for the decoupling, a lot of the midcap stocks took a much worse beating on the way down, so they're also rebounding more aggressively. The NASDAQ lost over 50% of it's value at the bottom.

If I would have been thinking about the elections and firearms, I would have bought some firearm manufactures before Nov 4th. It's looking like they will have a record Q4.

Smith and Wesson

-241..

I wonder if the market will spike if the bailout for the Big 3 passes?