Stock Markets Current News III (Take Two)

idiom · **Posted:** Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:01 pm

On the buy and hold for ten years... how are dividends being accounted for?

With historic P/E shouldn't dividends have made 100% return after 10 - 15 years?

hardtootell-2 · **Posted:** Fri Oct 30, 2009 10:46 pm

This Guardian piece on deflation and quantitative easing sounds like there is gonna be trouble straight ahead

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... Editorial2

Otmar Issing, the ECB's former chief economist, told an Open Europe forum in London that policymakers are entering treacherous waters. "Nobody can be sure that we have a self-sustaining recovery. The challenges facing the ECB are tremendous," he said.

"Money multipliers have collapsed everywhere. What M3 is telling us is that confidence is missing. I don't see any way to stabilise M3 in such circumstances," he said.

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research called on the ECB to buy state bonds in a blitz of QE to insure against a double-dip recession. He said: "2010 is going to be very difficult."

However, any move to purchase EMU state debt would erode ECB independence and be viewed in Berlin as a monetary bail-out of Club Med countries. "They would enter a political minefield," said Dr Issing.

eXpat · **Joined:** Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 1677

Nikkei is down, down, i wonder what tomorrow will bring to the US markets?

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:01 pm

I am going to rescind this prediction made on June 15 - and all the others embedded in this quote. This rally has had far more strength than I ever expected. To the moon we go! :-D

OilFinder2 wrote:

OK it's time for another OF2 commentary. I just know you're all waiting.

OilFinder2 wrote:

I posted this on March 17th. This rally even exceeds my expectations, if you can believe that!

OilFinder2 wrote:

Up 178 today. The rally we had in December was, to me, obviously a bear market rally (I was expecting it to go down to at least 7000, having read this artilce here back in October and understanding its reasoning). But now that the 7000 threshold has been crossed, I'm not so sure this current rally is another bear market rally - it *might* be, but it's not so obvious this time.

That said, even if it *isn't* another bear market rally I don't expect to see another big bull market for at least another year. My WAG is that it'll bounce around 6500-8000 for the next year or so.

I'm still waiting for a crash down to about 7000 or so, but at this point, I dunno.

I've often said about the price of oil: "The higher and the faster it rises the harder it will crash." That's true of the stock market too. We've had a nice run-up the past few months but it's time for a correction. I think the saying "Sell in May and go away" is merely being delayed by a month this year. The recent rally seems to have sputtered the past week or two and we had a big sell-off today. So, heeding my own observation above (posted on May 4) I think we're headed down to the 7000's for the short term. Not exactly sure where in the 7000's, but somewhere thereabouts. However, I do think we're in a new bull market and will not re-test the March lows.

My stock market observations in this thread so far this year have been pretty good so let's see how I do this time.

emersonbiggins · **Posted:** Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:40 pm

Dow 20K, here we come!

nevermind the trillion dollar deficits

sparky · **Joined:** Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 378

.

Oilfinder , "To the moon we go! :-D

"

there is some potential for a downward adjustment of the US $ ,
a good move in itself , it would see a mad scramble for real assets or close enough
before the raising face of the inflation wave
this is further accentuated by the reserve bank throwing buckets of green backs around
borrow low and speculate , great recovery isn't it
the unemployed are cheering , the Dow is up

.

rangerone314 · **Posted:** Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:52 am

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/markman-new-crisis-ahead-5-things-to-watch.aspx?page=1

Quote:

Bob Janjuah is back, and dude, he's not happy about what you've done to the stock market.

Then again, Janjuah is never really very happy. But now the great bear of the United Kingdom -- the chief market strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS, news, msgs), to be exact -- is quite sure that stocks' bender over the past eight months is about to come to a terrible, concussive, tragic end. He's like a cop who wants to slap a DUI on your portfolio.

Stay current on the price of gold
Should we care? Well, most bears aren't worth the kibble that's slipped into their cages at night. But give him credit: Janjuah is a little different. He made a sell-everything call on the global financial fiasco two years ago with impressive accuracy, and he hadn't been all Chicken Little about it for years before either.

His view now is almost as negative as it was back then on everything but gold. Here's why he believes the end is near, the markets could get cut in half and lumps of yellow metal will trump stocks and bonds.

Who and what matters now
Janjuah believes that only five things matter now: three players and two forces. The players are the private sector (that is, individuals), the policymakers (government officials and central bankers) and the financial sector (brokerages and big institutions). The forces are balance-sheet repair and growth, which can also be viewed as final demand.

S&P to 800s by March 2010... worst case S&P will get ot 500s.

dinopello · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 9:59 am

dinopello wrote:

Damn, I should have SOLD ! :evil:

No, wait - it's a buying opportunity ! :lol:

As of now, I sure am happy I didn't sell !

Stocks soar !

Volatility anyone ?

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:31 pm

sparky wrote:

.

Oilfinder , "To the moon we go! :-D

"

there is some potential for a downward adjustment of the US $ ,
a good move in itself , it would see a mad scramble for real assets or close enough
before the raising face of the inflation wave
this is further accentuated by the reserve bank throwing buckets of green backs around
borrow low and speculate , great recovery isn't it
the unemployed are cheering , the Dow is up

.

FWIW, I still think there will probably be a "near-term" correction by maybe 15% or thereabouts, but I have no idea when it will happen and have given up trying to guess. I've also given up thinking this correction will go down to 7000 or 8000 or thereabouts. I'm beginning to wonder if our "correction" won't happen until we reach 11,500 (or something like that) and then correct down to 10K. Who knows? Maybe when the Fed starts raising rates again we'll see the dollar correct back up and the stock market correct back down. But I can't see the Fed raising rates until the middle of next year at the earliest. And by then, at the rate things are going 11,500 does not seem out of the possibility. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see something close to there by the end of this year!

AirlinePilot · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 9:17 pm

Look at the P&E ratios on the S&P 500. That is all i have to say.

It could be a lot uglier than you think. It is Historical already.

sparky · **Joined:** Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 378

.

For what I see G. Soros is right ,
the economic curve is not going to be a U or L
He mentioned a square root sign... a small recovery then flat lining for years...

What we see is anyone with cash anticipating inflation , not growth
the rise of the index give you an idea of the losses on the dollar
this within a one year horizon . companies results should be pretty soft

The municipal and state bonds are going to be fun to watch

.
.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:09 pm

AirlinePilot wrote:

Look at the P&E ratios on the S&P 500. That is all i have to say.

It could be a lot uglier than you think. It is Historical already.

It's a bit high, but not "historical."
http://www.multpl.com/

AirlinePilot · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:12 pm

Your data as usual is flawed OF. Dont know where your getting that garbage but its at Historical and extremely ABNORMAL highs. It has been since late 07 and early 08.

Gee I wonder why??? It's a simple MATH calculation you can do on your own.

Accurate info for those who can't seem to find it on their own......

Quinny · **Joined:** Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 1484

Interesting 2 totally different answers to the same question! :?:

I wonder what the real answer is?

AirlinePilot · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 1:10 pm

If you dont know go to the S&P's website and find out for yourself.

There is PLENTY of obfuscation going on.

Stock Markets Current News III (Take Two)

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