Yeah, but where are we getting the energy for this growth? You've said it yourself before- jobs take energy, right?

Whether or not the U.S. has a financial crisis, it looks like Peak Oil is way off.

GoIllini,

What planet are you on?

Care to back up these statements of yours?



The invisible hand of the market?

I doubt 30 years is enough.

I'll be happy to do it. However, seeing as you're a moderator who usually tells the optimists to not get off topic on the doomer topics, I'll help you set a good example and answer your question in a new topic.

The point is that peak oil isn't here yet. That's good news for the U.S. economy.

Same place we always have.

Way off? Production doesn't decline on the way up the peak.

Monte, did you conjure this guy up to give yourself something to do? He's getting funnier in every post...oh yes peak oil is way off, lol.

Yeah the economy is booming, jobs are falling from the trees, inflation is tame and Santa Claus is sitting next to me.

If you want to believe the FOX/FED good news show than that is your choice. If you want too make a serious assesment on the shape of the US economy you need to look with a bit more scrutiny and not just post stuff from the AP.

That's right, you should instead take your information from an internet board filled with people talking out their asses about economics even though they have no training or expertise in same.

Montequest wrote:



Interestingly enough, that is at least the second time in a few weeks that "GoIllini" was asked what planet he or she was from. I wrote on another topic:



Montequest, don't even get into an arguement with this troll, he doesn't even respond to empirical evidence, nor does he back up his statements, just makes all the facts "fit" into his worldview. Here is his response to one of my posts:

GoIllini wrote:


Let me ask you something GoIllini, do you even know what "writing it off" means? I do, I am an Enrolled Agent, licensed by the Department of Treasury, to represent taxpayers in front of the IRS, if you would like to discuss taxes, I would be happy to. Tell me what you know, and how "write offs" benefit "taxpayers" with regard to GDP.

Also, guess what, it takes about 190,000 jobs created a month, just to stay even with the workers coming into the market, so 215,000 created is a joke, it is just a little more than enough to meet demand for jobs, by about 25,000, and if I remember correctly, 40,000 of those were service jobs. How many people who used to have high paying jobs went to work for Walmart last month? Do they keep that statistic?

The way I see it is not whether we are doing a lot more or we are paying eachother a lot more - which can result in a booming economy - but what we are doing. We are providing services and producing goods, and we consume them. Since we are not doing the things we should be doing to prepare, that means to me that this 'booming' economy is just wasting more time and resources, which is only making the problem worse.

So what is happening:
- Are we stocking up on resources: metals, energy, etc. in preparation for PO? Or are we using them just to build more McMansions, SUV's, etc. just for our pleasure today and that will have hardly any value to us in the future?
- Are the new jobs created in sectors that we will need after PO? Or are those jobs created just to increase our current standard of living instead of our future standard of living?
- Are more and more people racking up debt in order to invest in their future? Or do they use it to just consume today?

So is what we are doing today going to help in the future? Does it really matter how fast the money flows today when we are not preparing. We are just redistributing the money at the moment, we are just repositioning ourselves before we start preparing. What matters is where the money is once we start to prepare, what the distribution is of money and ownership of resources, because then everybody is going to bid for the essential resources. With just a single dollar you could in theory run an entire economy, if the money velocity would be huge (that single dollar would change hands so fast that it would not be visible to the naked eye). You could have say a yearly billion dollar economy, right? But what if suddenly one person decides to hold on to that dollar, take it out of circulation, that would stop the entire economy, because money stopped flowing. So when resources get scarce, do you think people will still give you another loan so that you can outbid them for part of the resources they need/want? It is likely that those with the resources will sell them to the highest bidder. If someone can outbid you, that means you are not getting those resources. So if you will need to buy those resources because you don't own them yourself, then it is not good when you are heavily in debt. If you have valuable skills then you will probably be kept in the loop, if not then you've got a big problem.

I see it like a variation of the game 'musical chairs', where the music has been playing for a long time. Some people wanted to hear a different song, and they sold a chair to the other players and in return they got to pick the song. So once the music stops those people are not allowed to sit on that particular chair. But the new song kept on playing and they got tired of that one as well, so they sold another chair, and another, and another, and ... While the music is playing not much changes for them, they might need to walk a bit faster in between available chairs, because there are less chairs available for them. So while the music is playing everybody is in more or less the same situation. During the game we get an hourly update of how we are doing, since picking songs is highly valuable and the number of available chairs to you has little value while the music is playing, those who get to pick the music are told that they are doing great, the value they gained on picking the songs greatly outweighs the value of the seats they gave up for it. However, when the music stops and everybody races to sit on one of the to them available chairs, then suddenly a lot of those people that got to pick the songs find themselves without a chair. Those people thought they were doing great, because they got to pick the songs they liked, and since the music had been playing for so long they thought the music would never stop. When the music stops it becomes a totally different game. Having a chair suddenly becomes very valuable, which it was not while the music was playing. Getting to pick the songs has no value at all once the music ain't playing, it will have some value again once the music starts playing again, but by that time you will probably be eliminated from the game because you didn't get a chair.

If more money is flowing faster today, that does not mean that things are looking better for the future, and that you can better handle the blow once it hits. Because once it hits that all changes, and those jobs could disappear just as easily. If we would be actually preparing for the future that would be good. Is the economy booming because we are not preparing yet?

I found the "ignor" button works quite nicely on GoIllini.

Like many.. at first I bit back, then raised an eybrow, then laughed, frowned, grit my teeth and finally hit ignor. This guy is stupid and intellectually dishonest and has a pass time of potificating crapola.

Besides under-reporting inflation for additional growth, debt is another source of our 'growth.'

Where is US growth coming from - and where is it going?



Good US Economic Statistics Are Not What They Appear

That I would certainly not recommend. However there are more credible sources than a N00B like me.

- The G7 has called upon the United States to get their financial situation back in order for the current situation is unmaintainable
- A similar statement was delivered by the president of China
- Trichet and the late Duisenberg have issued a warning that the current situation will lead to a financial meltdown.

- Greenspan himself has noted that there are structural problems within the nation's economic fabric. Issues which have to be resolved fast.

In my book structural problems and booming economy do not correlate well. It is the same as saying that you are perfectly healthy except for a brain tumor.

Now then it boils down to whether you believe the statements of an reporter which probably has about the same credentials as any member on this board, or are you willing to look at the bigger picture and incorporate the unusually outspoken warnings from the world's leading economists.

Interesting Bloomberg article today - this is a pretty ominous sign for our economy:
Housing Bubble Bursts in the Market for U.S. Mortgage Bonds

Well, I guess that means no more using the house as an ATM to go buy more stuff at ChinaMart; consumer spending will go into the toilet and cause a worldwide recession, since we're basically the only consuming nation right now. Maybe I should rethink that decision not to buy gold...