More Signs Of A Booming Economy

julianj · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:01 pm

And there are lots of openings for Halliburton and KBR workers,

$100K a year

well paid jobs too.

In Iraq.

:shock:

Where does the money come to pay them I wonder :roll:

threadbear · **Joined:** Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 7917

Enthusiasm about a growing economy, at this point, is like excitement about a metastasizing tumour.

sampo · **Joined:** Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 54

Not so fast buddy:

Exactly How Strong Was That Jobs Report?

According to the Economic Policy Institute, of the 215,000 jobs that the Labor Department reported being added in the month of November, nearly 77% of them were in services (165,000), of which nearly 40,000 of that was in food services.

As to be expected, there was also an increase in construction, arising in part from the post-Katrina reconstruction boom in the South.

And there was an expected uptick in retail hiring heading into the holiday season.

However, manufacturing went up only 26,000 jobs in the last two months.

Note this also:

Quote:

Wage growth also accelerated, though it remains below the rates of inflation that have prevailed in recent months. On a yearly basis, hourly wages are up 3.2%, the fastest yearly growth rate since March 2003. The most recent inflation reading, however, shows prices rising at 4.3% (from October 2004 to October 2005).

There are signs in today's report that suggest a weaker job picture than might be readily apparent from the common indicators. For example, average weekly hours were down by one-tenth of an hour (two-tenths for manufacturing), and were negative across most industries. At 33.7 hours per week for private-sector workers in blue-collar or non-managerial jobs, this measure of the strength of labor demand has remained unchanged over the past year, as well as over the recovery that began four years ago. In prior recoveries, average hours were up at this point.

The household survey also has some weak spots, especially regarding African Americans, whose unemployment rate jumped from 9.1% to 10.6%. That 1.5 percentage-point jump is the largest in the history of this series, which goes back to the early 1970s. It is difficult to know what caused this sharp spike. Employment in the notoriously volatile household survey fell in November by 52,000 overall and fell for blacks by 289,000, a result that is in stark disagreement with the more reliable establishment survey. This important indicator involves closer scrutiny in coming months.

Finally, last month represents the four-year mark in the recovery that began in November 2001. While job growth has been consistently positive since June 2003, among all recoveries that have lasted at least this long, the current one has been the worst on record (see the chart below). Over these years, the nation's payrolls have increased by 2.6%, well below the rate of the other recoveries that have lasted this long, including the 1990s recovery, which also began as "jobless."

Now, back to your regularly scheduled Bush cheerleading on the economy…

advancedatheist · **Joined:** Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 169

How much of this "growth" resulted from the "Broken Window" pseudo-prosperity caused by the hurricanes?

emersonbiggins · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:28 pm

advancedatheist wrote:

How much of this "growth" resulted from the "Broken Window" pseudo-prosperity caused by the hurricanes?

Good question. Another good question is how much of this "growth" resulted from government deficit spending? :evil:

Seadragon · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:37 pm

Or, the suburban housing construction industry?

keehah · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:04 pm

I don't know what to make of all the "every thing is rosy with the US economy" MSM posts from sf3006 today.

sf3006 are you being ironic with a Peak Oil Audience skeptical of the powers that be serving the truth openly and thus would also be savvy to distortions in the reports of our economic conditions?

Examples: 'adjusted' 'core' inflation that distorts inflation low and at the same time raises GDP. And 'readjustments' of the statistics such as jobs reported and housing sales downward a month later. (ShadowStats.com)

sf3006 are you concerned our 'rosy ecomony' will not allow any demand destruction and shorten the arrival of Peak Oil effects?

Or are you an less enlightened flamer. Thinking we will lap up this pabulum?

Vexed · **Joined:** Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 460

The real Unemployment numbers are what?

AmericanEmpire · **Joined:** Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 474

Quote:

Enthusiasm about a growing economy, at this point, is like excitement about a metastasizing tumour.

Yeah really. I'm excited about all the extra energy this growth is gonna use. Whoohooo!

Dukat_Reloaded · **Joined:** Sun Jul 31, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1002

marek · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:09 pm

GoIllini · **Joined:** Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 571

So what? 215,000 new jobs created is not only going to help reverse that trend, it's also a signal that the economy's still growing strong- something that couldn't be happening within anything less than two or three years of the peak.

Two or three years gives us the time the market needs to turn peak oil from a doom-scenario to a sort of bumpy landing. Between the increasing popularity of HEVs, development in the areas of nuclear and wind (In anticipation of PHEVs and/or hydrogen), and CTL, and enormous drops in demand for low-MPG cars, we're going to see the equivalent of a $1 Trillion market-financed "mitigation program", as Hirsch would call it, in the next couple years leading up to peak oil. I think we might have already seen a couple hundred billion already in efforts to conserve over the past three years.

Thank goodness the party's ending now, rather than at peak oil. Perhaps rather than getting a doom-and-gloom scenario, we'll get something between the depression and a bad case of the '70s with at least two years for the market to get ready for high oil prices.

GoIllini · **Joined:** Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 571

threadbear wrote:

Enthusiasm about a growing economy, at this point, is like excitement about a metastasizing tumour.

Apparently, anything that makes peoples' lives better is carcinogenic. Of course, that's typical of many doomers.

I think it's a good sign- an indicator that peak oil might still be a few years off. That'll give the market time to get people into conservation mode, get HEV's available, and get utilities thinking about the implications of PHEVs, hybrids, and electric cars on electricity demand.

GoIllini · **Joined:** Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 571

How are we fueling all of this growth? By using more energy.

Think about it for a minute; while it's not a good sign for those of us expecting a peak in 2015, it's an excellent sign for those of us worried about a peak in 2005 or 2006. We wouldn't be seeing this kind of job creation if oil had already peaked.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 10:02 pm

GoIllini wrote:

How are we fueling all of this growth?

By borrowing $3 billion a day from the central banks, selling our houses to each other, and going to the refi-ATM to cash out the inflated price, then making a trip to Wal-mart to buy Chinese goods.

Repeat as needed.

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