Quote:
long-term minimum of around 9700
Benjamin Graham, instructor of Warren Buffett and guru of "value investing" said that the historical long term PE of the DJIA is 7:1. Anything over that is, as he put it, "water" (although since he did his writing in the 50's it probably did not occur to him that water would at one point be more valuable and expensive than many other substances).
So, with a current Dow 30 PE of about 16:1 the market can still go down about 60% and be correctly valued, from a historical standpoint.