Yes, I think so as well. The longer we prop everything up the harder and faster the fall will be when it collapses!

Peoples at power are about as stupid or clever as anyone else.

They have failed to foresee unfolding events until it was too late.
Even if they understood that infinite growth in finite world is impossible they still hoped for physical constraints to strike in distant future and certainly after recent election in United States.
If they only were in control, unfolding chaos would be postponed few months.
Failure to postpone this chaos is an overwhelming evidence of failure of man in control set of beliefs.

So governments have miserably failed.
Their overall view was that technology will save us in any circumstances.
These hopes are proving groundless right now.

get worse ? the disintegration of a system that supports 750+ military bases around the world, is not necessarily bad, or worse.

the slowing down of a system built largely on American technologies, which pollute the F*ck out of the place we need to live, is not bad either.

if there is a Gaia, or a God, he/she/they might consider the changes we're witnessing a genuine cause for celebration.

an an example of the American technologies that pollute,
#1 the citizens of Sunnyvale had their drinking water polluted by AMD. a big class action suit in the '80's or early '90's. now that pollution has merely been exported.
#2 the surfboard industry.

it is such a farce to hear web announcers talk about their surfing events being green, considering the way surfboards are manufactured. polyurethane foam, TDI (where "I" stands for isocyanate) - 2 things you don't want in your biosphere, 2 things that have been exported with the closure of Clark Foam (they made the millions of foam blanks used by the surfboard industry, and were located in Irvine, CA).

i would be just as happy with slower silicon built using organic circuit boards, spectating surf contests surfed on wood boards, instead of epoxy or polyurethane.

but less-polluting electronics, an American foreign policy that practices the peace it preaches, and wood surfboards, i guess, are less profitable.

Absolutely.

We are having a cyclical recession. This one is particularly bad but in historic terms not unprecedented. The economy will recover unless peak oil hits.

Despite what some may say, we have not yet reached peak oil. The production figures in late 2007 and 2008 confirm that fact.

It is perfectly plausible that we may undergo a long plateau and an organised shift to a low carbon energy system. Nothing is set in stone and anyone who tells you it is are delusional.

Since people want to know what's going to happen in the future, I'll tell you. No, I'm not a psychic, far from it, but if anyone will just take a few minutes to look at things objectively, not through the lenses of what we want to happen, but what may come whether we like it or not, it's not too difficult to project the near future. Trends are the answer. Looking at past and current trends, barring some unforseen catastrophe (and there will be plenty of those - we are people after all), this is likely where the world will be in the next couple of years:

Things will go on, at least in the near term, pretty much as they've always gone on. It is a downward trend, yes, but a slow decline. SSDD.

About oil, even if there is a peak in the production of oil someday, most 'experts' predict that won't come for at least 20 years and others, like Exxon (not that we can expect anything like objectivity from them), are saying we have enough to last several hundred more years. As always, and this is a truism that applies in every single area of life, very likely the truth lies somewhere in the middle. We would all do well to remember that fact. It applies to everything. So forget about peak oil. It's not a problem now and won't anytime soon. Period.

About the economy, we've dug ourselves into a very deep hole, but, by and large, things haven't changed that much for the majority of people. A minority of people are hurting, sadly, but most people are doing just fine, thank you, and will continue to do just fine.

The U.S. will continue to print money just as Zimbabwe has done, but, unlike Zimbabwe, it won't do much damage here no matter how much they print. That's because dollars are the currency of choice on the international scene and because of that no major country is going to decouple at any cost no matter what. See China for an example. Their economy is teetering principally because of the dollar and yet they continue to buy our bad debt and will continue to do so.

In other words, the economies of the world have accepted the dollar, despite all it's flaws, as the international currency knowing that it has no intrinsic value in and of itself, knowing that the U.S. is simply printing paper, knowing that there is nothing behind it besides rhetoric. So the dollar has become, not cash but a type of credit. As long as countries continue to accept this situation, things will go on just as they always have. As I said earlier, it is a downward trend, but a slow decline.

The only real variable in all of this are the people themselves. By and large American's are an angry, unpredictable people. Not something intrinsic in themselves, rather it's a mentality created and fed by the ratings loving media. Without that unrelenting negativity, that constant desire to find the bad in every single situation, without that mob mentality which serves principally the interests of the media, attitudes would stablize, people would moderate, things would cool down and the world situation would finally improve. But the media has built itself a very powerful fortress. And so things have gone from bad to worse and will continue to do so. Another prediction, unfortunately. And in that may be the knot which will unravel for us all.

I agree with the essence of your post.

Unfortunately, the massive coming disruptions in civilization could, and I believe will, lead to even greater environmental despoliation. We will wreck most of it and then we will die off.

More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.

Probably life will pick up the pieces and evolution will resume, but it's gonna take millions of years for the earth to resemble anything like the way we found it.

Let's put it this way: For the rest of our lives and well beyond, things will continue to get worse. ALL things.

I would have said slow decline due to peak oil until I became aware recently of the fragility of our leveraged world economies. There aren't enough buyers out there for all the treasury bills our government will have to sell, even if every other country still keeps faith in the US. If I wasn't fully aware of the economic risks, what is out there that we still aren't expecting or are aware of that will be even worse?

There's a small possibilty things won't be that bad if we all put every bit of our personal energy and creativity to solving the enormous challenges ahead. But the chances of that happening are even smaller; frankly, of all the friends and family I've tried to explain what the risks are to NOT ONE has got it yet.

Absolutely. I often contemplate how many more wild animals will be decimated and go extinct. How many more forests chopped down. It pains me. Even the demise of the domestic pet population saddens me.

And all for nothing. It didn't have to be this way. But people are stupid.



I agree.



It might not be that bad. A lot of people outside of blast zones would survive -- albeit with an unhealthy exposure to radiation.

Got Potassium Iodide?

I have mine - got it from nukepills.com

Polemic, have you read "The Road"? (By Cormac McCarthy.) Just fiction, of course.

I have trouble buying the now prevalent theory that a major nuclear exchange would be survivable by humans. I don't think the Chernobyl experience is a good test at all.

The theory that we can survive a major nuclear war seems suspiciously similar to the theory that the risk of such a war is and will remain minimal.

No I haven't read it; but I've read about it, on this site and probably others.

It seems to me that full-blown nuclear Armageddon isn't in anyone's best interest, and if the nukes are going to fly, it will just be a few of them, and not all of them. But who knows? Maybe we're dealing with total psychopaths who think they can ride out the worst of it underground for 5 years or something.

The funny thing about the replies to this thread and so many others here is it is all about the Other.

Whether the Other is the economy, the banker, the government, the Terrorist, the neighbor with a different opinion or just Things.

Things are in your hands, people.

Either take your life in your hands, do something with it and then tell us about it, or sit there with your hand out and silently wait.


Sorry, a little harsh....

My main beef is with OTHER people who think that life is in their hands and that there is anything that is within their power to do that would turn the tidal wave of human history.

Therefore, I will take into my own hands the responsibility of telling OTHER people that Canning Vegetables might give you a few extra sunrises to enjoy, but its about as inneffectual a plan as chatting with friends about what the nature of the causes of the disaster are.

I get just a little tired of being told from the moral highground of Prepperville that unless you are currently splitting wood and milking the cows that discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse is a meaningless pursuit. For many people here, the discussions held about permaculture are quite meaningless to them. How DARE anyone have such hubris as to be so dismissive of the concerns of others by persistently belittling this pursuit as not worthwhile?

Its NOT all in your hands, it never was and never will be. It is worthwhile to comtemplate the underlying nature of things even if they are not in your hands however.

Reverse Engineer

Of which pursuit?

Contemplating the fundamental nature of the social collapse?

You are just jerking my chain, right?

You really think "discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse" makes you more giving and humble than others?

That a rhetorical emphasis on what we can't do is better than encouraging what we can do as individuals and citizens?

That "discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse" is a greater pursuit than discussing the fundamental nature of social cohesion?


Don't give me any how dare yous, hubris bs RE, it just makes people laugh.

I enjoy making people laugh Pops

In any event, I think BOTH pursuits have their value and that a person should Mutitask. I'm not raining on the Prepper Parade, why do you find it necessary to rain on the parade of the theoretical Doomers all the time? Every time a good Doom discussion comes up, you have to come in and tell everyone to STOP discussing Doom and start Canning Vegetables? What if you have all the Mountain House food you can FIT in your cabin? You have to do SOMETHING with your Sunday Evening! I suppose I could go outside and split some wood, but its pretty cold out there tonight and if the heat goes out I have enough propane for my camping heater to make it through next month, so I'll split the wood when I need it.

To get back to the point of the OP, it IS of course possible that things won't get "that" bad, as in the close to Worst Case Scenario General Green posted in another thread. What you can personally DO to stop them from getting that bad is something of a rhetorical question. Will taking part in Demonstrations prevent things from getting that bad? Will bombarding your Congressman and Senators with email prevent them from getting that bad?Will electing Obama prevent them from getting that bad? Will Canning Veggies from getting that bad? If its a Cascade that cannot be stopped or slowed, NOTHING will prevent it from getting that bad. However, you won't have a clue as to what MIGHT be effective if you don't analyze the problem in detail, and that is what Doom threads DO. So you ARE doing something when you contribute to these threads. Is it as effective as Canning Veggies? Who knows? Its interesting reading though, think of how dull the PO board would be without the great Doom of the past written by such notables as MonteQuest and Roccman!

There should be a place for everyone on the PO board, Doomer and Preppers alike, to write in freedom without having their respective Parades rained on. That is all I am saying here.

Reverse Engineer