RE self fulfilling prophesy

Yes, there is a huge incentive to crunch the numbers and then through research to try to convince other investors/speculators to trade off your technical levels.

November Update:

[img][img]http://img489.imageshack.us/img489/5435/9sinewavemodel9au.th.jpg[/img][/IMG]

As you can see, the 9-sine wave model we did in July has brilliantly predicted the current market correction, and with the exception of the "noise" of Katrina and Rita is right on the money.

Now, if this goes true to form, we will expect to see an increase in the price of unleaded starting right about now, and lasting until mid-January.

Here comes that fine 18 Year Scotch!!

Any chance of an update on the model?

Unleaded closed at 170.05 so it is looking like no 18 year-old scotch this year, unless the other competitors did worse.

I will update the model when I get back into the office.

We were doing great until about mid-November when we started to import all of that gasoline from Europe. This had the effect of mellowing out the market.

Any Idea why crude oil is back over $61?

I think it has been inexplicably low for about the last 6 weeks and is just now getting back to where it "should be".

There are a number of news pieces in the last couple of days, any of which would make the market turn around: EIA announcing a $65 target for next year, stinking news coming out if Iraq re: problems with production, potential for the dollar to go short because regime of interest rate increases may be at an end, cold weather in Europe, the inventory report this week which says a drawdown in unleaded gas, Japan and Europe announcing an end to the aid program, etc.

[img][img]http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7691/unleadedgasmodeljan36tz.th.jpg[/img][/img]

updated model. Maybe it will catch up, what with all of the imports stopping, etc.

That reduced me to McClelland's and Speyburn.

Next time, we need to deal with these shady charactors: ∞ & ω

Oh it'll catch up, the last two weeks of January 06 are going to be colder than a witch's you know what according to the farmer's almanac.

I've long expected that the destabilization of the climate would in turn begin to destabilize the economy, and to the extent that the latter runs just as smoothly as market data is predictable, the graph above appears to bear out the expectation: the data is not as predictable as it was.

Given intensifying climate instability, there will presumably come a point where market confidence is eroded as the reliability of data prediction is more widely recognized as declining.

regards,

Backstop

The 9-sine wave model is making a comeback.

Too late for the scotch, but maybe a moral victory.

I should try to freshen it up with current data. The original run was on July 19th.

Here is a recalculated model.

This graph is the detail of about the last five months or so. I have added "control limits" plus and minus one standard error, which was 8.7 cents per gallon.

If the model is behaving, the current trend should last for about another 20 trading days or so before reversing. The next peak is about 90 days out.

Here is an update of the 9-sine wave model, recalculated in January. The model has been badly out of phase since it was recalculated and has only now predicted price within the control limits.

Gotta go back to the drawing board. The stink of failure is on me.