Laherrere: Liquids will peak around 2020

venky · **Joined:** Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 857

Here is a link.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/EGUVienna2006.pdf

This was at the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.

The key points are the following

*All liquids will peak around 2015 assuming no economic disruptions.

*30 years from now, production of easy oil will be 35% less than to day but production of all liquids (including from coal and biomass) only 5% less than to day.

*Overall URR for all liquids is assumed to be 3 Tb

Ofcourse JD leapt on the second statement; they are having a field day over at POD, but I find statements 1 and 2 hard to reconcile. Like what really are the realistic estimations for NGL, coal to liquid and biomass?

pstarr · **Posted:** Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:28 am

Lahherrere assumed technologies he has not studied.

Hirsch showed that significant NGL and Coal liquids project will take 20 years to produce mitigation. The technology is there, but the energy return is too little (as shown by Germany in WW2) and the scale is too massive and too late.

Pimentel and Patzak have effectively debunked corn and switchgrass ethanol, and soy biodiesel. Algae is a PIPE dream built on theoretical fallacies and production impossibilities. Every positive biofuel report I have considered assumes impossible, rosy, or un-calculated advantages.

SoothSayer · **Posted:** Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:51 am

Long term we may indeed have more fuel available than some might think.

However .... if Peak Oil hits say in 2008 ... (we will only have one years notice) ... then we will NOT have any of this fancy biofuel / hydrogen economy / solar / magic mushroom technology in place.

It could be a nasty bump in the road ....

pstarr · **Posted:** Wed Apr 12, 2006 11:03 am

It is wrong to add future and hypothetical nonconventional liquids production to conventional gross liquids to chart total future production.

To understand this you must appreciate the concept of 'Net Oil' complements of Novus Net Oil: Situation Worse than we thought.

Novus wrote:

The concept of Net Oil is based on Energy Returned on Energy Invested or EROEI. It can easily be explained by this simple equation any economist will recognize.

Profit (Net Oil) = Revenue (Oil Outputs) - Costs (Oil Inputs)
"

Following is his methodology:

Novus wrote:

The world Average EROEI has been falling for years and right now is around 15. So if the world is pumping 85 MBPD then put into the Net Oil Equation it looks something like this.

Net Oil = 85 MBPD - 5.67 MBPD = 79.33 MBPD.

The implication to this discssion is that as more conventional petroleum is used to build, operate, and maintain the nonconventional facilities, conventional production will effectively DISAPPEAR from the system and that must be, and is not, reflected in these charts.

I believe Laherrere offers the data for this re-interpretation?

Laherrere: Liquids will peak around 2020

Who is online