Now that we're polling and playing anyways -- there's not much else to do, is there -- , let's make another one. (I'm the only one, together with OilFinder2, with some authority on making correct predictions, so we are allowed to make this type of polls.)

It's easy to laugh with the PO community, now that it has lost 5 years of its story. But then, we remain staunch PO defenders, even in this cynical time-frame.

When do you think oil will hit $100 again? We have some IEA clues to build on.

The Nikkei bested your 5% drop with a 7%. At the rate money is disappearing, the entire planet is going to be sharing exactly $1 soon.

When the dollar breaks.

"Sometime within the next 15 years."

That's about as precise as I'm willing to get.

I suspect that it could get up to $100 pretty soon based on currency issues, not necessarily supply/demand.

If peakoil.com conventional wisdom is valid, then we should see $100 oil within 5 years even with a huge drop in demand, because we should also see a huge drop in supply due to depletion.

It's possible that the international elite will just totally wreck the world economy in order to implement a control grid and affect a dieoff. If so, demand could fall off a cliff such that peak oil becomes a non-issue for a very long time, especially if you're dead.

I think there are two different supply /demand curves in play here. The one we have been working with with relativley cheap oil meaning high supply vs. people with credit cards and an overvalued, house that thought it was cool to drive to the mall and buy $200 worth of plastic made in China, because everyone has one of those and it's cool,:( And the other base supply /demand curve based on the amount of oil it takes to get the produce to the grocery store and fuel to the electice light plant etc. That second curve though quite a bit lower than the first is much less elastic and once we get down to that level ,demand will hold and a shortage that can not meet that demand will send prices soaring. I doubt if more than 60 percent of our use is for that base demand but in ChinDia the percentage is much higher so it will not take much of a recovery world wide before we hit the demand point that matches or exceeds supply. Considering that we have amateur hour about to take over the US economy there is no way of predicting how long it will take for a recovery to begin but once it begins the shortage of oil and 100+/bl prices will not be far behind.
In other words, Tell me what Obama will do and I'll tell you when oil will hit $100.

I thought the operative theory was peak oil happened....MSM noticed....gasoline demand turned out to be elastic rather than inelastic....and presto....crashing prices were the peak oil generated result.

Are you sure someone besides you and OilFinder didn't predict this, it all seems so OBVIOUS now.

Gas prices were still going up even after J6P started to cut back on driving. Oil only tanked when the speculators cashed out and the financial crisis happened which slowed down the entire global economy at once.

Mos's belief that evil speculators caused the runup in oil prices from 2005-8 doesn't match the facts. Its overly simplisitic to assume that evil speculators are to blame when oil prices are go up, but that the evil speculators somehow all vanished when oil prices went down.

The reality is much simpler.

Global oil production peaked in late 2005 has been on a plateau since. Oil prices went up as demand continued to grow and oil supply tightened. In early 2008 the oil price went so high that it caused the global economy to collapse into recession, just as happened during prior oil price spikes in the late 20th century. As the global economy has gone into recession, oil demand has dropped and the price has dropped as supply outpaced demand again.

Oil will get to $100/barrel again when global economies recover and oil supplies get tight again. Most economists predict the global economy will begin to recover late in 2009....so the oil price will most likely start going up again and will probably hit $100/barrel again sometime in the next few years after that, i.e. ca. 2010-12.

2012-2015 having on my mind the fact that this will not be a simple recession... and it won't be a short one either.

I didn't make any predictions I can recall. That turned out to be wise, especially in terms of credibility with friends and family. I'm not going to start making predictions now. The last upswing was hair-raising - the next one could be just as bad or worse, and still not be 'it.' Price volatility is, by its nature, unpredictable. I have a feeling that the swings will become wider and quicker, but that's a guess and it's as far as I go. Best stick with the fact of the matter, which is simply that peak oil is an inevitability.

Umm, 2010 - 2011? Barring unforeseen events.

A few months ago I saw premium gas marked at $3.95 so I pulled in and filled up. I then told my wife, "we'll never see that price again!" I was right for about 6 months, never did I think I could buy it now for less than $2.50.

I did suspect that we were in a race to the bottom between peak and depression. However, I assumed peak would win and inflation would price everything out of this world. Never thought "they" would lose control so quickly and completely.

I've been trading equities the last 2 months in preparation for a new pastime. Using a very conservative strategy I was up a couple of thousand just a week ago. Today I'm down double digits. Thankfully, it was Thinkorswim paper money. My friends with real investment portfolios are near comatose.

I've thrown my plans out the window. Not having suspected we could be in this world 'o hurt so suddenly, I have no viable answer. I don't think (if that word is still appropriate) we'll regain the illusion of normalcy that so many still cling to. That would mean the decline is just starting with the horrors of desperation dead ahead. If by some miracle the ship is righted we'll likely smack hard into energy depletion, wars for resources, death, disease, and famine. But, what do I know, not much it seems.

Before next June. And it'll never look back.