Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2009

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091106-708698.html

Nothing much on the refinery outages this week except that there was an issue at the Conoco plant in Sweeney, and that late in the week they were going to restart a unit at BP Texas City.

Also FTO was going to slow one of its reactors down in Kansas to do some maintenance. A year or so ago, these guys were just about the most efficient of the small refiners because of their ability to use the tar sands stuff....

Quote:

Prediction
Unleaded Prediction 30-Oct
Beginning Inv mbbl 208.6
Imports Wk/Day 5.25 0.75
Production Wk/Day 60.61327983 8.7
Available 274.4632798
Balance Wk/Day 68.6 9.8
Ending Inv Mbbl 205.86
Prod Supplied 9.1
Predicted Change -2.7

Distillates Prediction 30-Oct
Beginning Inv mbbl 167.8
Imports Wk/Day 1.05 0.15
Production Wk/Day 26.82882878 3.8
Available 195.6788288
Balance Wk/Day 28.7 4.1
Ending Inv Mbbl 167.0
Prod Supplied 3.5
Predicted Change -0.8

Crude Oil Prediction 30-Oct
Beginning Inventory 339.9
Domestic Prod 37.1 5.3
Imports 60.9 8.7
SPR+/Supply- 0 0
Total Available 437.9
Provided to Refineries 99.3660325 14.20
Ending Inventory 338.5339675
Predicted Change -1.4
Refinery Utilization 80.250

I am keeping the refinery utililzation and crude oil inputs at about what they were last week. Also, I believe the current level of imports is about 8.7 mbpd with fluctuations above and below that depending on how efficient our tanker pilot was in getting back onto the boat on Friday afternoon..... and unloading his cargo "last week" instead of "this week"....

Probably the monthly data will show about 8.7 mbpd during this period....

Demand: I am going with last year's unleaded demand (as computed by the "balance" method) and something a bit less than last week's distillate demand.

People are talking about how the recession is or is not over, etc. but I think the real indicator will be the distillate products supplied. It is still anywhere between 9 and 12 percent year on year, consistently.... When you see distillate demand pick back up that means the trucks are rolling again.... Until that happens this will not feel like a recovery....

Last week was really unusual in that the amount of products produced, unleaded and distillates, was unusually high for the amount of crude oil that was nominally put into the system. I suppose it could have been due to a cutbakc in jet fuel, but more likely some funny stuff with the numbers. For finished products, I put in a slightly more conservative value this week....

So what are we left with: drains in both of the products and the crude oil. I suppose if one or two tankers was efficient, and managed to unload last week, it could easily be a gain......Here is where we need our bikini-friendly interns to check out the LOOP to see where the captains are.

memmel · **Joined:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 248

pup55 wrote:

could easily be a gain......Here is where we need our bikini-friendly interns to check out the LOOP to see where the captains are.

LOL

I could do the speedo and we could have a good cop bad cop routine.

Captain you have your choice the older plump gentleman in the speedo or the intern but you have to spill the truth.

So send me the email for the bikini clad intern and I'll get working on it.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

So send me the email for the bikini clad intern and I'll get working on it.

I first came up with this plan a couple of years ago, since this thread is a low-budget operation. The only way, short of The Dude's method of tracking the radar for incoming ships, is to get some bikini-friendly interns to monitor the ports and tell us how many ships unloaded last week. The difference between me and one of those big commodity houses is that they have the resources to do this, and I do not, or should I say "we" being as it is a community.

Can you envision a couple of these interns in lawn chairs and some binoculars, right at the mouth of the Houston Ship Channel? I think it's brilliant.

Unemployment, being what it is, even for bikini-clad interns, we might be able to get them to do it for free. The kids build their resume, they learn a little about the oil business, we get the information we need to whip up on the analysts.... it's the gift that keeps on giving...

Perhaps we can get them to find out where the pilots are hanging out.....Speaking of the pilots:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

I just love these data buoy readings at times like today. As of about 6 o'clock, at this buoy, which is a bit south of Pensacola, the wave height is 19 feet, with a wave period of 7 seconds, so if you can envision rising and falling a little more than the height of the room you are now in every seven seconds, you have to say to yourself that this is not the time to be sitting on 2 million barrels of blending components.....

So the pilot is earning his money tonight. We will give him another day off in a day or two.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

The U.S. Energy Department will publish its weekly inventory report tomorrow. U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose 1 million barrels last week as imports increased, according to the median of 16 responses by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably dropped.

A report from the American Petroleum Institute yesterday showed crude oil supplies rose 1.22 million barrels last week to 337.5 million.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aooWiCWDs_N0

Quote:

A Reuters survey on Tuesday yielded a forecast for crude supplies to be
up 600,000 barrels, with gasoline stocks unchanged and distillate stocks
down 700,000 barrels. [EIA/S]

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1136627920091111

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending November 6, 2009

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the
week ending November 6, 145 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 79.9 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.9 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.1 million
barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.7 million barrels per day last week, up 530
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged 732 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 177 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At
337.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly above the upper
limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are above the upper
limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending
components increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3
million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this
time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels
last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are above
the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.7
million barrels per day, down by 4.7 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9
million barrels per day, down by 1.0 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 13.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 4.0 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.

Quote:

Unleaded 6-Nov
Beginning Inv 208.3
Imports 5.124 0.732
Production 62.3 8.9
Available 275.724
Ending Inv 210.80
Balance 64.924
Balance/day 9.27
Prod Supplied 8.917
Actual Change 2.5
Deviation from Forecast 1.9

Distillates 6-Nov
Beginning Inv 167.4
Imports 1.239 0.177
Production 28.7 4.1
Available 197.339
Ending Inv 167.7
Balance 29.639
Balance/day 4.23
Prod Supplied 3.559
Actual Change 0.3
Deviation from Forecast 0.5

Crude Oil 6-Nov
Beginning Inv 335.9
Production 37.6 5.371
Imports 60.9 8.7
SPR+/Supply- 0 0
Total Available 434.4
Provided to Ref 96.6 13.80 79.9
Ending Inventory 337.7 337.797
Actual Change 1.8
Deviation from Forecast 3.1660325

Quote:

pup55 Experts Actual
Crude Oil -1.3660325 1 1.8
Unleaded 0.58 0.00 2.5
Distillates -0.2 -0.7 0.3

Note the refinery utilization has finally dropped below 80%. To those of us that have been watching this, we know that it was only a matter of time.

Despite this, and despite pretty similar actual unleaded production compared to this, the unleaded inventory increased, and this was due to the demand being down. Products supplied, as measured by the EIA was off by 1% and my little "balance" calculation was off more than that, about .4 mbpd, and that was what was responsible for the bulk of my deviation from reality.

In distillates, demand was also down.....I suppose if there is an indicator of a terrible christmas season for the retailers this is it, because all of those cheap plastic toys that are going onto the shelves for the day after Turkey day are going to have to ship this week.....

Crude oil: No decrease in production yet, but we know that next week we will see some decrease due to the stoppage of production for that storm.....I managed to get the imports right on the money this week, which only happens a couple of times per year.....

There was nothing earth-shaking on here. If the market moves, it won't be because of this report.

More fun next week.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:54 am

Off topic posting deleted by eastbay. Please remain on topic in serious threads.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

Crude oil prices fell for a second straight day and finished below $77 per barrel as weaker-than-forecast economic data led to demand worries. With the drop oil fell to its lowest level in nearly a month.

Light sweet crude for December delivery dropped to $76.35 per barrel, down 59 cents on the session. Prices has reached as high as $77.28 but later dropped as low as $76.37.

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/ForexTopStory.aspx?Node=B3&Id=1129514

Quote:

Crude settled more than 2 percent lower as government data confirmed an industry report earlier this week that domestic crude and refined product inventories rose last week.

The EIA report showing refinery utilization is down to 79.9 percent of capacity is a sign of very poor refinery demand for oil.

Domestic crude inventories rose 1.8 million barrels to 337.7 million barrels in the week to Nov. 6, EIA data showed. Now support for the crude is seen at 3561 and below could see a test of 3520. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3669, a move above could see prices testing 3736.

[url]
http://www.commodityonline.com/futures- ... -6025.html[/url]

I suppose OF2 was teasing me about that comment that if the market moved, it would not be based on that inventory report. Well, all I have to say on that is: This stuff happens all the time, the market moving with no apparent excuse. There have been 16 weeks this year in which the change in unleaded inventory was greater than plus or minus 2.5 so it happens about a third of the time....so the market has had plenty of time to react, and we know what has happened since the beginning of the year.

now there was some talk to the effect that because the refinery utilization had dropped below 80 there was blood in the streets, but to that I say that the frequent viewers of this thread were so prepared for this, since we have been talking about it since September, that to us, it was not a surprise. Perhaps if more of those pesky traders would view us, they would not panic when the number finally happens.

We have documented cases in the past where supposedly bearish reports shock the markets in exactly the opposite direction. I am not usually conspiratorial, but in this particular market there are deep pockets that are fully capable of moving a lot of contracts to make a few dollars on the other side a few days later..... so it would not be surprising if somebody dumped some crude onto the market on Thursday afternoon, and will not hesitate to buy it back and make a dollar or two on the other side in a few days....

Also, I would point out that this thread, and this post, and everything else I say, is for entertainment purposes only, and anybody who takes any action or inaction on its basis is doing so at their own risk. I am not an expert (on this), I am just some guy on the internet. Never take futures trading advice from anybody who has a job, and by all means, do not believe the rantings of some guy on the internet, unless backed up by a lot of research on your own part.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:33 pm

Deleted per COC 5.1 and 5.2.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

Prediction
Unleaded Prediction 13-Nov
Beginning Inv mbbl 210.8
Imports Wk/Day 5.6 0.8
Production Wk/Day 62.2474272 8.9
Available 278.6474272
Balance Wk/Day 67.6 9.66
Ending Inv Mbbl 211.03
Prod Supplied 9.01
Predicted Change 0.2

Distillates Prediction 13-Nov
Beginning Inv mbbl 167.7
Imports Wk/Day 1.26 0.18
Production Wk/Day 28.20586545 4.0
Available 197.1658655
Balance Wk/Day 30.1 4.3
Ending Inv Mbbl 167.1
Prod Supplied 3.5
Predicted Change -0.6

Crude Oil Prediction 13-Nov
Beginning Inventory 337.7
Domestic Prod 35 5
Imports 56 8
SPR+/Supply- 0 0
Total Available 428.7
Provided to Refineries 97.261605 13.89
Ending Inventory 331.438395
Predicted Change -6.3
Refinery Utilization 78.500

Surely because of the bad weather in the gulf last week, we lost some imports and also lost some domestic production when the platforms had to shut down due to 19 foot waves....

Surely the refinery utilization will be the same or lower than it was last week....

and surely the demand will be similar to last week. Actually between Thanksgiving and Christmas, demand picks up a little bit, typically.

We have noticed in the past when the bad weather hits down around Cantarell, the effects on shipping are noted two weeks later. I am thinking this week will be the week.....

So, only 8 mbpd imports, a loss of about 2-3 tankers of crude oil unloading last week, and only 5.0 domestic production, leading to a drawdown in crude oil, a bit of a draw in unleaded and about even in distillates.

There is plenty of oil around.

memmel · **Joined:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 248

One has to imagine that in the next several weeks refinery utilization will bottom out and begin to pick up a bit.

Right now until that happens it looks like we should be basically in a holding pattern.

The interesting part starts with what happens when/if refinery utilization finally turns around and its tough to say when this could be heck we might not see anything interesting until Jan. Although I don't think it will take that long.

memmel · **Joined:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 248

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Oil/idUSTRE5AF1JQ20091116

Quote:

Ship brokers ICAP estimated that oil products now stored in floating vessels have risen to 90.3 million barrels, up nearly 15 million barrels from a previous estimate at end-October, and might rise by another 6.5 million barrels by year-end.

Seems that a bunch of paper barrels have now been refined into finished products and are stored on phantom tankers.

Pretty cool IMHO.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Here is a graph for you. It's the "weekly crude import varability" which is defined by me as the 15-week moving standard deviation of crude oil imports, which means that the wackier the crude oil imports are, over a 15-week period, the higher this is...

As you can see, there have been three instances that this has been really extreme: March through May of 2003, namely the start of the gulf war II, The period just around katrina and Rita, and of course the period around the hurricanes in 2008.

The lesser spikes of this are not as predictable. There was one between April and June of 2004 and again in the winter of 2004, January through March of 2007, and in the summer of 2008....

But the graph suggests that we are headed toward a period where there is going to be a lot of fluctuation in imports, and that is consistent with the floating storage thing.....What this also means is that it will be increasingly difficult to "guess".... on a weekly basis.....The y-axis units are "thousand barrels per day" so roughly 2/3 of the time this is going to fluctuate plus or minus .5 mbpd from the mean amount, so no wonder I cannot get it right.

The interns will be busy this winter, tracking this for us.

memmel · **Joined:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 248

Pup I think the problem is the shear amount of oil a VLCC carries 2 million barrels of oil. 2-3 docking at different times over a month skew the data. Assuming say 1-2mbd of US demand is met from variable suppliers Nigeria one week Saudi Arabia the next you have a fairly large difference in travel time for a tanker. Not sure but I'd guess at least six weeks. Now this variability should put a sort of lower bound on how much oil needs to be stored to ensure the market is well supplied.

What I mean by this is even if its high one week it may be low the next so if we are entering a period of variability in imports then unless we are very well supplied people are not going to be excited if they get and extra VLCC offloaded one week vs the next.

Underlying this you have the decline in Mexican production leading to more oil being shipped longer distances.

Overall I feel this graph highlights that the US has become dependent on a variable short term or spot market for sourcing a significant fraction of its crude supply its not coming from well defined long term delivery contracts and is bought on the open market. These would be competitive purchases bought by bid.

If true it does not seem to me that purely financial speculative market players would be able to have a lot of control of the market. The volatility in the oil market and price pressure is instead a result of the purchase of more oil on the open market. Thats not to say speculators are not involved but if so then they need real oil to have any hope of being a market mover.

And last but not least if this is true then the market is highly sensitive to marginal changes in production and bidding wars erupting as users compete for cargos on the open market.

If the market was well supplied then I'd argue more oil would simply be bought on long term contract and the volatility would fade out fairly rapidly as cargos went without multiple bids.

Perhaps this is a lot to read into your graph but volatility is a powerful force in markets and one that does not get the press it deserves. Its a signal that the market is a tinderbox capable of erupting into a bidding war on some fairly small marginal changes in supply.

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

Quote:

Crude oil advanced a second day on forecasts that a government report will show U.S. fuel inventories declined last week.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 850,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Energy Department will release its weekly supply report tomorrow, and the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute published its data late today.

Quote:

Prices were up from the settlement after the American Petroleum Institute reported at 4:30 p.m. that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles declined 4.37 million barrels to 333.1 million. December oil rose 51 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $79.41 a barrel in electronic trading at 4:31 p.m.

Quote:

The Energy Department report will probably show that gasoline inventories fell 25,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 13, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates.

Stockpiles of crude oil climbed 300,000 barrels, according to the 17 analysts who provided crude estimates. Ten respondents forecast a gain, and seven said there would be a decline. Those looking for an inventory drop focused on disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=anPFMePXZdqM

We will have to see about the crude oil. The silly analysts may have forgotten about the 19-foot waves. I bet the tanker pilots are still taking benadryl for it.

memmel, I suppose the above graph could be thought of as sort of a "blood pressure" chart, if you will.... If it's a nice, steady flow, no problemo, the imports are headed in at an even rate, and everyone is happy. When it goes crazy, like it did when the system was under stress, then you know there was a problem.

The more we are dependent on tankers rather than pipelines, the more variable this will be too.....

I suppose if or when the era hits that we are in a global crude oil panic, this thing will be off the charts. Some weeks we will find some crude, and some weeks we will not. Maybe this is one more tool we can use to measure whether or not we are screwed.

The .5 mbpd standard deviation, you are right, of course, that's just two more VLCC's more or less showing up on Friday afternoon....

frankthetank · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:42 am

Quote:

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending November 13, 2009

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the
week ending November 13, 31 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 79.4 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,averaging 4.0 million
barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day last week, down 77
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged 584 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 152 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At
336.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly above the upper
limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper
limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased
by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.9 million
barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels last week,
and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.6
million barrels per day, down by 4.1 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9
million barrels per day, down by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 11.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 2.9 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.

Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2009

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