Nuclear power plant life can vary considerably. The Oil Drum: Nuclear Britain

As you can see, some Magnox lasted less than 30 years, but most lasted around 40. A couple ran for nearly half a century. It is very likely the AGRs will make it well past 30 years with life extensions, although their availability has been disappointing recently. But it is an academic issue, it just means the US has 20 years to act instead of the 10 years the UK has. It means nothing without a replacement programme.

That's just not true. Half of the reactors went online in the 70's and the second half went online after 1979. They have 60 year life times. You do the math.

Last time I checked they were planning something like 8-10 new reactors in Texas alone.

Edit: Checked my facts. 7 reactors are being planned. 1 EPR in Amarillo, 2 ESBWR's in Victoria County, 2 APWR's at Comanche Peak and 2 ABWR's at the South Texas Project. Should be a total net output of about 10,500-11,000 MW.

I disagree they do NOT have a 60 year service life.
The newer 3rd generation reactors being built today such as the EPR and the AP1000 have been designed to have a 60 year life.
The older "2nd gen" plants of the 1970's and 80's were NOT.

I have never heard of an application for a service life extension beyond 10 years. There are some nuclear plants today, that are still in operation only because it was approved for a service life extension. Time is running short.
The problem with the McCain plan is it is too conservative. We need double that.

The plants (at least in Sweden) were designed for a 40 year life. Conservative engineering and progress in material sciences means the industry believes they will on average run 60 years. Sure, some will just make it for 50 years, but others will do it for 70. And I wouldn't be surprised if the EPR and AP1000's built today will run for 80 years, if further breakthroughs in material sciences are made.

Hell, even some of the oldest plants will run for 60 years. For example, the Vermont Yankee started operating in 1972, has a licence to run until 2012 and is seeking a 20 year life extension. Almost all current US reactors has got, are seeking or will seek the 20 year extension over the original 40 year licence.

The situation is different in Britain with the gas reactors falling to pieces, but LWR's hold together much better.

I've mentioned before that my husband is an electrician. He's sent out fairly frequently to dig up lines that are run in pipe underground. When he comes home from these jobs it is very rare that he isn't griping about whoever pulled the wires. Too many wires crammed into pipes that are too small, the outer wires with insulation stripped off by someone forcing them in so they don't have to pay to put down bigger pipes, wires that aren't heavy enough to handle the loads.

Keep in mind this is for commercial jobs, but this is an example that the age of the equipment is not the only factor to consider when trying to estimate how long it will be able to get the juice to you. The guy at the electric company is as likely as anyone to try to cut corners to keep prices down & rush the job when someone's constantly calling from an office to cuss them for not having the work done last week.

Very interesting thread.

Does anyone really think that in the recession we're in and the depression we're heading toward demand for electricity will be increasing? Soon, no one will be able to afford flat screen TVs nor the juice it takes to run them.

One thing in the article that most can get on board with is that the transmission system needs an overhaul. But we need to have an idea of what kind of system we are planning for both in terms of load and source.

The cost of new plants is becoming rapidly too expensive as prices for all materials continue to skyrocket.

monetary roadblocks to new nuclear plants

Mostly most of us will be learning to get by on a whole lot less electricity and on less reliable energy. Welcome to the PO world and the third world nation the US is rapidly becoming.

This is a variable that has not even been considered, yet it will become the prevailing factor in electrical generation over the next decade. The Available Energy model predicts, from energy considerations alone, that by 2025 the average American will have a standard of living commensurable with his predecessor of 1915. (I’ll post the data and analysis of this determination in the Available Energy thread in the near future). Our electrical power usage is not likely to grow significantly over the next few years.

Our transition to an electrical society will take at least 40 years, in the mean time, pressure on demand will be going down as the economy retracts strongly.

This transition is assuming we have a means of keeping the current infrastructure intact.

By that I mean, trucks to transport people to service power lines, transformers, etc. Wire to repair lines that break during wind storms, new poles to replace ones that break, new parts and pieces to replace old worn out ones within the generators, etc...

burtonridr said:



Undoubtedly, some out laying areas will experience black outs or total disconnection from the grid. It is doubtful, however, that the entire grid will disappear in the next 17 years. Centralized schools, much of the medical infrastructure, the majority of the trucking industry, all the airlines, most of the banking system and a large percentage of high energy intensive industries will close over that period.

Unemployment will hit 50% or more. The entire civilization will not collapse, just many of its institutions will shrink to almost nothing or become artifacts of the past. We will not lose our entire energy supply, just 35% of our most useful energy supply. Many companies, institutions and locals will be put on the PO extinction list.

Let it be noted, if the federal government does not take this seriously in the very near future, they will also be on that list.

Please do let us know about any developments in your research, shortonoil.

Really good point, burtonridr. Probably the last drops of oil will be used to prop up an increasingly fragile, ever shrinking, and more and more accident-prone and intermittent electirc grid.

There are no cheery future scenarios, but if we are going to have any distributed energy in the future, it will likely mostly be electric while it lasts.

dohboi said:



Thank you dohboi, I certainly will. Time is the limiting factor, I am also trying to prepare, among other things, for the crisis that will soon be on us.

What burtonridr implied will certainly be true. The electrical grid will get the last available resources in the attempt to keep it running. In essence it is the only chance we have of maintaining an advanced technological society. If it goes, we really will be back to pounding the rocks together. For that reason all other in-battles will be forgotten. A common enemy is unifying.

Well put, amen, and best of luck.

Had a very interesting lunch with a utility electrical engineer last week.

The grid is not well at all.

We are going back to roccland...really.

I can certainly share your pessimism roc, the grid is in terrible shape. I also have a friend who is a power plant manager, and what he tells me will curl your hair. But the grid is unlike a strictly mechanical devise, if you cut down the load you can run them almost indefinitely with minimal maintenance

The days of three large screen TVs, three computers that never get turned off, a heated driveway, heated pool, washer/drier pulling 2000 watts, and totally air conditioned and heated home are fast coming to an end. Those things are unnecessary amenities as people will soon learn. You don’t need 200 amps to run a house. For decades most homes were wired with 60 amp entrances, and people survived just fine.

I have an old house here in Virginia that I use as a writing studio. It has a 60 amp entrance that is an old Wadsworth box (1930 vintage) with a fuse cartridge type disconnect. The house is wired with BX K&T, the old rosin impregnated cloth wound wire. It takes some work, but I can keep it functioning. You just have to learn that you can’t load a circuit down very much; turn things off before turning something else on.

Our standard of living is certainly going to change in the near future (some would say crash). The pampered days of the last 50 years are rapidly coming to an end, and people will again have to learn what it means to be self sufficient. That in itself is not a bad thing. A society that can again learn a little self esteem without having to look at their check book, and 401K plan will probably be quite a relief.

We’ll certainly hear about all the trials and tribulations of the populous from the media. Soon, however, people will start to say “stop all the whining”! “Get the garden planted, get out the wash board, and shut the dam light off”!