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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:19 pm |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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This thread was started 2 years ago (Apr 26, 2006) when the Washington Post economic/business columnist was taking discussion questions on the "high oil prices" ($60-$70 a barrel).
Well, tomorrow (Wednesday, May 7) he is hosting another discussion on the same topic. Link Here
Steven Pearlstein on Oil and Gas Prices (11AM EST Discussion)
Steven has shown that he is willing to take question with quite a variety of viewpoints. He (mostly) dismissed peak oil in 2006, but it would be interesting to see his viewpoint now.
Go and ask him. Read his responses in 2006 (the link above is still good). I wish Yergin would take questions like this.
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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:48 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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OK, so Pearlstein's column came out (which usually guides the discussion)
Get tough on OPEC
He is against the gas-tax holiday - Talking about Clinton:
Quote: Her proposal for a gas-tax holiday, ripped from John McCain's playbook, is so ill-conceived that she's managed, if only for a moment, to unify the entire economics profession in opposition. Quote: But if a gas holiday is a bad idea, aren't there some other things that could be done to reverse or offset the ridiculous run-up in oil prices?
Actually, there are. He thinks OPEC has dragged its feet in developing capacity Quote: While OPEC may not be so good at controlling how much its members pump, particularly when supply is plentiful, it has been very effective in limiting the pace at which new capacity is developed. Here's the idea behind his solution Quote: While the Supreme Court has ruled that current price-fixing laws do not apply to foreign governments, there is nothing preventing Congress from changing the law -- or, as Hillary and others have suggested, challenging the legality of price fixing at the World Trade Organization. Short of that, the United States could deny visas to top officials from OPEC governments, prohibit U.S. oil and drilling companies from doing business with known price fixers, and make it more difficult for the sovereign wealth funds of price-fixing countries to make direct investments in the United States. and why he says it will work: Quote: After a couple of years of being treated like political and economic pariahs, they might begin to realize that there will be a cost to their piggy price-fixing behavior. He has some other 'ideas' related to the SPR that I don't fully get, but at the end he does add the obligatory: Quote: Instead of driving, let's try walking, bicycling, car-pooling or taking public transportation for a week, or working from home some days. Yes, it will be inconvenient. Yes, it will involve sacrifice. But it will also be good for the environment and good for your pocketbook. It might also shave a dollar or two off the price of your next fill-up, even without a tax holiday. Although he kind of relates this to his idea of 'boycotting' big oil: Quote: We can also take things into our own hands by setting aside a week every three months -- the week all the big oil companies announce their quarterly earnings -- to avoid the pumps altogether and use as little gasoline as possible.
This guy has a cushy job as economics/business columnist for the Washington Post, remember. Economics and Business!
Again, here is the link to the discussion for question and comments on his article.
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KingDavid
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 4:36 am |
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Joined: Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:00 am Posts: 55 Location: Borgloon, Belgium
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"But the certainty with which you state your opinion....
...."And on the facts, you are simply wrong: there is plenty of oil and gas out there to be tapped that can keep us going for decades
What a jerk!
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shortonoil
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:51 am |
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Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 3053 Location: VA USA
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Quote: ...."And on the facts, you are simply wrong: there is plenty of oil and gas out there to be tapped that can keep us going for decades
This has nothing to do with science, thermodynamics, mathematics or geology. This idiot is promoting is a f***ing religion, and at the end of the mass the head priest will scarifies him on an alter, and roll the body down a set of stairs to the starving masses in the streets.
Don’t eat the meat - it’s tainted!
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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:00 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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shortonoil wrote: Quote: ...."And on the facts, you are simply wrong: there is plenty of oil and gas out there to be tapped that can keep us going for decades This has nothing to do with science, thermodynamics, mathematics or geology. This idiot is promoting is a f***ing religion, and at the end of the mass the head priest will scarifies him on an alter, and roll the body down a set of stairs to the starving masses in the streets. Don’t eat the meat - it’s tainted!
Yes, but getting him to answer some questions could be entertaining. In 2006 he said regarding supply "Your analysis does not include the supply effects of a sustained price at $70 a barrel.". Well, its at $120 now, what has the effect on supply been ? It's interesting to me to see how long he will stick with the story. And, a lot of people in Washington read this. Good to remind people of the recent past because they forget so quickly...
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shortonoil
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:40 am |
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Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 3053 Location: VA USA
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dinopello said:
Quote: Yes, but getting him to answer some questions could be entertaining. In 2006 he said regarding supply "Your analysis does not include the supply effects of a sustained price at $70 a barrel.". Well, its at $120 now, what has the effect on supply been ? It's interesting to me to see how long he will stick with the story. And, a lot of people in Washington read this. Good to remind people of the recent past because they forget so quickly...
Just remind people that this guy has no mathematical, thermodynamic or geological model on which to base his assumptions. He is pulling his projections out of his posterior with the help of a voodoo doll, a set of old dried bones and a Ouija board. This continual stream of subjective, non verifiable, non-recourse horse-crap that the media is pouring onto the public, is beginning to get putrefying.
His ‘06 projection was just another of those delusional states into which economist often descend. They are based on the belief that if the price goes up, the God of Oil appears to anoint us with more of the holy fluid.
The Peak Oil journey is going to be one long, hard ride! The script must have been written by Marty Python!
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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:58 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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Well, apparently he's got his story and he's stickin' to it!
Quote: Arlington, Va.: Steven,
A bit over 2 years ago (Apr 26, 2006), on a discussion like this, in a response you said:
"What is it with you peak oil people. Its like scientology."
...equating the notion that people who have studied the oil reserve and extraction numbers and posit that we are very near or at the world's peak production capacity with those followers of a religious cult.
I was just wondering if you still hold this opinion ?
washingtonpost.com: Apr. 26 discussion
Steven Pearlstein: Fair question, but no, I haven't changed my opinion. Over the long run, I don't think we're going to run out of oil. And that's particularly true if oil is priced at $120 a barrel rather than $25. You can imagine how much more creative people can get in finding and extracting oil at that price. And you can imagine that, over the long run, it will dampen demand. So let's let the market forces play themselves out, shall we, rather than declaring victory for the neo-Malthusians.
I hope the wheels are still in in another 2 years and I'll ask him again!
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sameu
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:00 am |
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Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 584 Location: Belgium, Europe
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ok this is really tabloid material
he answers the question like a 10 year old who doesn't know shit about the topic and jerks something stupid out of his ass
not even stupid arguments, but no arguments at all
_________________ www.peakoil.be
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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:51 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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sameu wrote: ok this is really tabloid material he answers the question like a 10 year old who doesn't know shit about the topic and jerks something stupid out of his ass not even stupid arguments, but no arguments at all Maybe, but he gets paid a lot and has a column in the Post and is also willing to take questions like this one Quote: Arlington, Va.: So Steven, your brilliant plan to treat 'the Arabs' as political and economic pariahs - how does that work?
If OPEC laughs and instead of being sympathetic-sounding while they don't raise production and prices continue to rise, they just become more surly - what do you do then? I'll tell you what you will do, you genuflect and pay whatever they ask to have that oil. Right? What else can you do? Invade?
Face it, you are an addict and you are irrational about it (as all addicts are). You probably hate me, but if you can manage to beat this problem (and admitting the problem is the first step), you may come to realize that only a true friend would try and get you to face your addiction and overcome it.
Steven Pearlstein: I suspect if we were addicted to solar energy, you wouldn't be so judgmental.
But, you are right, his answers are disapointing for their lack of rationale. He has this thing where he thinks anyone who thinks being addicted to oil is bad is an "environmentalist".
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emersonbiggins
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:57 am |
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Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5320 Location: Dallas
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He paints people whose views range across a spectrum into a false dichotomy, e.g. 'good' vs. 'evil', 'us' vs. 'them', perhaps a milder version of neoconservative tactics. That makes it easy to give terse, myopic answers that suffice for juvenile chat rooms, but does little to further debate, or critical thinking about a subject. Fuck this guy.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
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dinopello
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:07 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3827 Location: The Urban Village
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emersonbiggins wrote: Fuck this guy.
Well, yes, basically. but, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning columnist and at least i find it entertaining to needle him. If he keeps his job (as I expect he will) then it will become more entertaining to point out his flip attitude in future talks.
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emersonbiggins
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:21 am |
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Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5320 Location: Dallas
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dinopello wrote: emersonbiggins wrote: Fuck this guy. Well, yes, basically. but, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning columnist and at least i find it entertaining to needle him. If he keeps his job (as I expect he will) then it will become more entertaining to point out his flip attitude in future talks. You've got patience that I don't have. As for the Pulitzer, consider the source, or rather, the current state of the "profession" of journalism. Quote: "... for his insightful columns that explore the nation's complex economic ills with masterful clarity." "Masterful clarity?" I'm reminded of Mencken: Quote: "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers."
...but they sure delight! 
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
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mos6507
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:55 am |
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Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:00 am Posts: 7173 Location: Boston Suburbs
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dinopello wrote: emersonbiggins wrote: Fuck this guy. Well, yes, basically. but, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning columnist and at least i find it entertaining to needle him. If he keeps his job (as I expect he will) then it will become more entertaining to point out his flip attitude in future talks.
Take solace. We all know who will laugh last.
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darren
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Post subject: Re: WashPost Economist on Oil Prices - Live Discussion @11 E Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:31 pm |
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Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 127
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Quote: Perlstein: It's also a problem when a cartel engages in price fixing of a key input to the economy, and I don't think we should be cheerleading for price-fixing just because it helps further some other goal.
Wow, where were these price fixers when oil was $10 a barrel?
No acknowledgement of supply contraints and rising demand at all. This guy is amazing.
The suggested solutions in his article "boycott OPEC, no oil companies can work with them, no SWF investment allowed" will simply drive the US dollar down more (why hang on to USD if you can't invest it in US assets?) and drive the price up to $200 a barrel... so OPEC can pump half as much and make the same income. Seriously, this guy is WaPo's economics journalist? Shit, I should get a job there, I've got ten times the qualifications that this guy does.
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mark
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Post subject: Limbaugh speaks about OIL!!! Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:14 pm |
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Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 221 Location: chicago
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...and it's hilarious. Just tune in to a completely clueless bozo.
_________________ Who is John Galt?
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