It wasnt that long ago that many people were pointing at late 2005 as the peak, and indeed it was for a few years. Now however new production records are being recorded in early 2008...

Megaprojects Shows a peak between 2010 and 2018, based on various decline rates. This is a very reputable information source, I think everyone will agree.

But some may say that well even 2018 is too soon to fully mitigate peak oil, based on increasing consumption rates, the gulf is just too wide. Which is valid if you consider increasing consumption inevitable.

However also recently there has been an astounding, verified, drop in US vehicle mile travelled. Also US oil imports are showing signs of levelling off in line with a temporary plateau in production. There is serious rail congestion and serious proposals being floated about revamping US rail infrastructure. There is a lot of heavy sulfurous oil available for sale with no refineries available to use it, but they're coming. While a 100 mbpd seems a little high according to megaprojects, its not that far off. So the IEA dropping its previous predictions so much is newsworthy, its not clear they're still whistling in the dark.(They may be more or less correct in other words)

As for much vaunted Asian Demand, a lot of that is based on the ridiculous fuel subsidies in place. There's again ideas floating around about reducing them - that'll reduce demand for sure. The lessons of the early 80's should remain stark in everyone's mind. I assure you the oil producers remember. A drop in demand due to conservation and substitution of electricity for liquid fuels where ever possible could very feasibly drop oil demand in a progressive yearly fashion where dropping production would present less of an economic shock. Hopefully to the point where the shocks are small enough that the resilience of the system can compensate.

Caveat: If the yearly decline of existing fields is really 8%/year(2010 peak) then my gut says thats too much and catastrophic demand destruction will result. However my gut also says thats unlikely because the cost of production in SA is much less than a mature province like the USA. I think, intuitively perhaps incorrectly, that until production costs in SA rise to an equivalent level, they still got some go in them.

So thats your anonymous web surfer synoposis, no rights reserved.

The question is - will refineries adapt faster than the quality is changing - or will the quality change faster than refineries can adapt?

And if they can adapt, doesn't that represent an additional cost anyway and lower EROEI?

My WAG is that the adaption process will be slower than quality will change. Individual refineries don't have an incentive to undertake a massive overhaul or investment when it is easier just to pay more for oil to refine it into a product that's already in strong demand.

My WAG is that the adaption process will be slower than quality will change. Individual refineries don't have an incentive to undertake a massive overhaul or investment when it is easier just to pay more for oil to refine it into a product that's already in strong demand.

God I hope you're right. 10 more years of party city here in America sounds great to me that's 10 more years of earning money doing what I do for a living. My line of work is history when and if TSHTF here in America.

When "grinding strangulation" is the most optimistic scenario a well informed poster can realistically conjure, you know we're in trouble.

Not so sure about that.

By the way, as to whether you should agree with a doomer or a cornucopian, or haven't made up your mind yet. Don't use "hope" to determine where your action plan should be.
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But one choice you should never consider is whether to hope or not.

More MSM chatter is good.