The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

frankthetank · **Posted:** Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:06 am

This guy thinks so...i guess we won't know until spring! it wouldn't be shocking after the large crude drop/relative mild weather so far.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6657790/

a snippet...

Quote:

Porter Bennett has spent decades gathering information on the oil and gas industry.

Now, the Evergreen resident is flying in the face of conventional wisdom with his latest observation: Natural gas production across the United States is rising and prices are heading for a crash -- fast.

"Nobody else believes him," said Kyle Cooper, an energy futures analyst in Houston with Citigroup Global Markets, when told of Bennett's studies and predictions.

"But I actually agree that the supply-demand balance isn't tight at all. I do concur with him that if this winter is even normal [in terms of temperatures], we have a lot of gas. If it's warmer than normal, we have a whole lot of gas. The supply-demand balance is bearish."

...

BabyPeanut · **Posted:** Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:59 am

Porter Bennett wrote:

"But I actually agree that the supply-demand balance isn't tight at all.

So why is the price high? Why are there blackouts in the last few years like never before in history? Why is Philadelphia Gas Works murdering the poor for a change?

small_steps · **Joined:** Sat Jul 03, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 262

price crash, rather hard to fathom given the flat production or decline in north america NG, when there has been an all out push to drill for it

thebear · **Joined:** Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7

Decline was for? I have noticed a trend Bloomberg News and CNBC are always late to the party! Most times we need to do opposite of what they say! Crude is the most manipulated market out there! These hedge funds are manipulating it, saying that they think $35 a barrel! bs, and now all of a sudden they have folks on the new shows that will predict $60 of barrel. We must remember that supplies are constrained. Sure in the very short-term supply is bearish, Asian demand, etc

small_steps · **Joined:** Sat Jul 03, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 262

Check out these spot NG prices:
http://www.theice.com/dailyIndices/gasIndex.html

Esp the east section, was $6-8$ last thursday.
Its not good to be at the end of the pipe!

Laurasia · **Posted:** Tue Jan 18, 2005 5:10 pm

Seems to have gone up a bit, eh? We at work were just talking about how our latest natural gas bills have basically doubled. Of course, having a long cold snap just before Christmas didn't help, but even so, it would not explain increases like we've just seen. Your chart DOES explain!

Regards,

L.

Kingcoal · **Posted:** Tue Jan 18, 2005 5:14 pm

Boy I'm glad I heat with fuel oil... oh yeah, that's expensive also. We play this game every winter in the northeast USA.

Ludi · **Posted:** Tue Jan 18, 2005 6:16 pm

I'm glad we heat with wood.

EnviroEngr · **Posted:** Tue Jan 18, 2005 9:54 pm

I'm glad I heat with...
fissionable materials. Very high yield. :-D

Heavy but hot.

Who set me up for that?

frankthetank · **Posted:** Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:29 pm

I'm glad i'm freezing my ass off because my last bill was over double the bill before it. i heat with NG. I like it because i feel its about the best thing out there, in terms of emissions, but i can foresee a wood stove in the very near future. very near!

Not good considering we still have a solid 2months or more of winter left.

I have a feeling 5 years from now these prices might be low. One thing most won't do is compromise on heating, like they might on driving/taking vacations.

Ludi · **Posted:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:33 am

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

No-Oil · **Posted:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:03 am

Ludi wrote:

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

Yeah but that's because you are in the minority, as a previous poster just noted, if his bills get much higher, he will be fitting a wood stove ! Then your bills will rise as quickly as everyone elses ! That's when you'll know the peak has arrived.

the balance of supply & demand will always win out. If gas gets too expensive, then some will move away from it, this will reduce the demand & the cost for those left on that fuel. But those on the changed to fuel will see an increase in their fuel costs due to the new increased demand.

Chris W.

BabyPeanut · **Posted:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:11 am

Ludi wrote:

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

By "power bill" are you referring to just wood?

I don't pay for oil heat from month-to-month. I have a 275 gallon tank which is filled three or four times a year. Since I found out about Peak Oil I have taken steps to conserve oil which has brought down my usage quite a bit I think. It will take time before I have a clear picture of what has happened.

The last two years average out to $97 and $96 dollars a month.

BabyPeanut · **Posted:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:33 am

BabyPeanut wrote:

The last two years average out to $97 and $96 dollars a month.

This includes a service contract. Without that it's $81 and $77 a month.

Ludi · **Posted:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 11:15 am

Quote:

By "power bill" are you referring to just wood?

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I mean our electric bill - we use some electricity for heating (space heaters). We don't buy wood. I'm not sure how much gasoline we've used in the chainsaw so far this season, but it hasn't been much for firewood (we also use the chainsaw for clearing brush). This should be the first year the woodstove will be "free" - that is, it's paid for itself by now in saved electricity costs.

The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

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