With crude oil prices testing the critical $75 resistance level, I thought it might be a good idea to have an oil price watch thread - unless of course the search has missed out on an existing one.

Looks like we've broken through $75 after months of anticipation.
It has been quite a journey up from $32.40.

Now to see if it holds.

I hate watching it double. Anyone want to guess time frames and consequences?

What happens at $100? $125? $150? $200?

Maybe we should use a gold adjusted value since the greenback is not havin such a good year.

I will guess it can touch 100 this year and the economy wont like that too much.

Other than that, my record of being right shows I should not gamble.

USDX fell way below critical 76 support, now at 75.60.
The chart looks positively disastrous.

EUR/USD has gone over 1.48, but still a ways yet from the 1.60 of last year.

Crude still doing fine at $75+.

Since inventory is is about as high as ever the only thing supporting $75 is a weak dollar and irrational exuberance. I see no sign of PO anywhere on the supply side. A double dip recession (highly probable) could cause another crash to $35. On the other hand an attack on Iran would just about guarantee $200+. Depends on just how stupid the Iranians are. NO ONE (including their Arab neighbors) wants a nuclear Iran. To me it looks 50/50. http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=85610

Political figures in the USA keep talking about how the recession is over, but nobody who is worried about losing their own job, or who already has, is about to run out and start spending again. The USA economy is largely consumer driven, without consumers buying there is no actual recovery, and when nobody believes the official statements then getting people to buy beyond necessities is going to be very difficult. So long as consumers are afraid to spend inventories in the USA can stay high, if a genuine recovery takes hold then inventories will start emptying out, and inevitably prices will climb.

Well, I agree with all this, including the Iran attack/$200 risk part I didn't copy as the moderators per the C.O.C. disapprove of copying complete quotes.

However, IMO, you're missing a major issue that the markets are pricing in. Despite all the bears/doomers on this board constantly stating economic doom is just around the corner - by far most of the inflation and growth indicators of the world markets are forecasting SOME significant degree of world economic recovery in the next year or two.

Thus, China and India contributing to a big oil demand surge is a SUBSTANTIAL risk, if this happens to any meaningful extent. (This could cause crude prices to surge as they did last year). So, IMO, the price of oil in the, say, $60ish to $90ish range is reasonable, as long as this risk is significant.

Now, if the downside global economic stuff happens, sure, we could go back to $35 crude, or below. This, IMO, would just be a great chance for us dollar cost averages to pick up the crude oil vehicles we missed when oil rose so rapidly this spring. In fact, if the dollar keeps slipping as the world becomes more aware that we will have HUGE deficits as far as the eye can see - I would think oil in the $30's (or especially below) becomes a TRULY enticing opportunity.

Disclosure - I TRY to look at this stuff from a multi-year timeframe as far as a strategy, as short term, things just seem too random to try to make substantial bets on. Thus, I'm not worried about oil price "wiggles" in the next several months...

Welcome to $78 oil. It's shot up a dollar in the past half-hour.
Quite a ride.

We might consider the $75 resistance level aka glass ceiling officially shattered.
Unless of course the USDX stages yet another stunning comeback.
Now to look out for a re-test of $75 as a *support* level

The question is whether that 78% surge in China car sales and 21% surge in India car sales can be kept up in terms of momentum.

Also there is a question of how much of all this is actually due to government stimulus programs, and how much of it is due to what Eastbay has described in this thread : as in, everyone wants a car.

And then again we have the ongoing green shoots vs brown weeds debate.
From a purely contrarian point of view, I would say it's a wall of worry.

If the only people who worry are the contrarians, I would really worry.
If *everyone* is worried, I'd tend to take the opposite view

Onward to $100 oil?

Well it'll take an old-timer peakoiler to recognize this, but we've just passed 2 Yergins (2x$38) once again on the way up.

Congratulations!

Almost at $80 today...

It is easy for the stock market to soar with all the printed money handed to the investment banks to play with. Take Zimbabwe as a case study. It has/had one of the largest gains for the stock markets, but I doubt anyone would consider them to be prospering. I feel that as oil rises further, the stock market probably will stop rising and fall hard again as the so called "green shots meme" burns in flames. People can't spend money on Chinese made goods if gas goes up to $10 a gallon, nor will businesses up investment under such a scenario, right?

USD 80 again
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i4_q7DtiEHvUTVNlJoaJ9ufkd1kgD9BEVO1G0

People will be spooked now once gas reaches $2.75. It might hold there but the Spring is when we need to be concerned. All the major oil companies are talking about US gasoline demand having peaked permanently. Anyone with functioning synapses knows what that means. The only way out now is for the dollar to go much lower since further liquidity problems will drive us to the brink of civil unrest and possibly civil war. The small businesses are about to get their bailout and this is going to smack the dollar down hard depending on how they massage the message.

Think about where gas was when we saw $80 the last time? This could be the beginning of a $250 super spike into early summer. And do not forget that all of this is happening with 21% real unemployment (shadow government stats). America is laying on the mat hazily considering an attempt at rising to her feet, but this ain't million dollar baby.

I am shocked at how few of the doomers are still blowing the horn on here since there has never been a time since I started posting here five years ago when sudden doom has been closer at hand. I am hoping it is not because they are unable to do so.

May God have mercy on a nation that once honored Him.

Closing in on $82 ... Things about to change again me thinks...