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Bas · **Posted:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 8:27 pm

And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment....

Andrew_S · **Joined:** Sun Jan 09, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 683

That graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange.

MacG · **Joined:** Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1178

Andrew_S wrote:

That graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange.

Indeed. Could it be that someone is drawing down stockpiles? If we don't get rationing by price we will probably get outright shortages.

Novus · **Joined:** Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1855

Bas wrote:

And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment....

Chart made more scary on Nov 1 so Halloween doesn't end this year.

gnm · **Posted:** Thu Nov 01, 2007 9:29 am

Good grief! Ugly when you see it laid out like that. Gotta be just speculation right? ..... RIGHT!?

[smilie=5eek.gif]

-G

Cobra_Strike · **Posted:** Thu Nov 01, 2007 1:36 pm

Coool....super spike phase? Next summer could be rough at this rate.

joewp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 01, 2007 3:37 pm

Somebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough.

Sys1 · **Joined:** Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 698

joewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.)

Tyler_JC · **Posted:** Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:23 pm

joewp wrote:

Somebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough.

The 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.

The OPEC embargo and price controls lead to gas lines.

The peak in US production was not important with regards to the gasoline availability situation.

Granted, the peak in US production meant that we couldn't increase production instantly to compensate for the loss in imported OPEC oil, but production increases have a large time lag so it wouldn't have mattered during that small blip anyway.

joewp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:51 am

Sys1 wrote:

joewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.)

It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.

Tyler_JC wrote:

The 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.

I'm not saying that there's a definite relationship, just that it seems to happen. We'll see by this time next year, I'm sure.

bodigami · **Joined:** Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 2355

...that graph is strange; between the beginning and end of 2006 there was basically no rise in price... well, maybe the Peak was '06 not '05... but at the end, those it matter? we're heading down either way.

Lighthouse · **Joined:** Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:00 am **Posts:** 1466

Not that I do not like simplified approaches but you pick one graph out of a complex system and come to assumptions and conclusions. Interesting.

Girls and boys, may I remind you that the US$ lost a bit of its value recently? Don't you this this could have an impact on the price for a barrel of the stinking black stuff we all crave so much?

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